R.Politik

R. Politik provides independent analysis on contemporary Russian politics. News and analysis as it happens with Tatiana Stanovaya. See our bi-weekly bulletin.

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

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https://t.co/sGPd2UQk6W

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

Putin went to Beijing four days after Trump, and the sequence flattered Moscow only on the surface. Trump had left without a breakthrough; Russia could present itself as China's steadier partner. But the visit produced no Power of Siberia 2 and no significant agreements, and what it confirmed was the asymmetry underneath the friendship: China is now the player whose economy lets Russia keep fighting. Beijing declines to press Putin to end the war while maintaining, in public, that it should end.
The commercial frictions are real — gas price, car imports, the terms of dependence — yet none of it touches the strategic closeness. The partnership deepens precisely as it becomes more one-sided. #Russia #China #Putin

I have just released R.Politik Bulletin No. 10 (184), which looks at this and at a sharper question forming at home.

Because the more telling shift this fortnight is internal. With talks paused and Washington waiting to see whether Russia's position weakens, loyalist voices — people who are no one's idea of dissenters — have begun to argue openly that the war cannot be won by military means. Putin is unlikely to move; what matters is that the argument is now sayable, and that speculation about manoeuvring around him has started to circulate.

Against that backdrop, Russia staged its largest joint nuclear exercise with Belarus to date — the nuclear card pressed harder precisely as the conventional war offers less. #Ukraine

The domestic machine, meanwhile, is preparing for September. Two border regions, Belgorod and Bryansk, went to a combat general and a technocrat — wartime personnel policy in miniature — while United Russia has been told to campaign in a softer register even as the pressure the Kremlin cannot control keeps building.
If you follow how Russia's strategic choices and its internal politics are starting to pull against each other, the full bulletin is at https://t.co/kRkZdVZCkK.

[Tatiana Stanovaya @Stanovaya]

The Iran war is dominating global headlines — US-Israeli strikes since 28 February, Khamenei assassinated, Mojtaba now Supreme Leader, oil markets volatile over #Hormuz threats, and #Trump claiming the US is “very far ahead of schedule.”

Public discourse remains focused on the immediate chaos: who gains from rising #oil prices? Is this a strategic distraction for Russia in Ukraine? Will the conflict ultimately damage Western interests more than anyone else? Many analyses continue to emphasize short-term gains for Moscow.

Behind the scenes in Moscow, however, the picture is far more complex and uncertain than these surface-level assessments suggest.

I have just released R.Politik Bulletin No. 5 (179), examining how the Kremlin is actually assessing the situation: the short-term fiscal relief it is receiving, alongside the deeper strategic risks and long-term uncertainties causing genuine concern.

Key elements I highlight:
📌 Short-term fiscal relief. The surge in Brent prices — and the risk of even higher levels if the Strait of Hormuz remains threatened — is helping to close Russia’s budget deficit and replenish reserves. It also creates new opportunities for Russia to leverage energy markets to its advantage.

📌Long-term strategic concerns. Moscow views Trump’s decision to launch strikes as a serious miscalculation, driven by Israeli pressure and overconfidence following the Venezuela operation. Moscow expects that a protracted war risks radicalising Iran, entrenching hardliners, and further destabilising the region. Putin’s restrained response to Khamenei’s assassination — and the deaths of several family members — reflects deep unease over the precedent of targeting a head of state. At the same time, Trump’s recent call to #Putin is seen in Moscow as a potential opening for Russia to offer its mediation services, although attempts to engage Gulf states have so far produced limited results.

The central lessons for Moscow are clear: Trump is an unpredictable partner for any negotiated settlement (the so-called “spirit of #Anchorage” is fading), negotiations can serve as cover for military preparations, reliance on allies has clear limits, and sanctions pressure often accompanies military action. The prevailing mood among Russian elites is mixed and contradictory — ranging from a sense that the situation is spiralling into a major mess to cautious hopes that the war in the Middle East could become a serious strategic setback for the US and the “collective West.”

Meanwhile, the conflict is diverting international attention and munitions from Ukraine. While the direct impact on Russian-Ukrainian peace talks remains uncertain, Moscow is preparing for the possibility of additional sanctions, increased US pressure, and a prolonged war — even as it sees potential gains from a weakening Ukrainian position. Moscow has already been seeking to relocate the negotiation process while increasing pressure on Ukraine to withdraw from the Donbas.

On the domestic front, the FSB has prevailed in its long-running confrontation with Telegram. A criminal case has been opened against Pavel @durov for assisting terrorist activity, traffic throttling has intensified, and a full ban inside Russia now appears irreversible — despite broad resistance from elites, the public, and even parts of the military. Current geopolitical developments are creating additional grounds for the FSB to expand its influence in political decision-making.

I also examine the Kremlin’s creation of a new presidential commission on AI. Internal competition is intensifying, reflecting the broader struggle for technological sovereignty and tighter state control over the digital space.

Another significant development is the arrest of Ruslan Tsalikov, a long-time associate of Sergey Shoigu. Despite his high-level connections, he now faces the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence.

This bulletin offers a non-headline perspective on how the Kremlin is recalibrating its foreign and domestic priorities in light of the events in Iran.

If you follow Russia’s strategic thinking, the interplay between the Middle East conflict and Ukraine, the Telegram situation, or you simply want a detailed, source-based analysis of the factors shaping decisions in Moscow — the full 45-page document is now available at https://t.co/ruWyudxrPm.

[Tatiana Stanovaya @Stanovaya]

A rare situation has emerged in which domestic developments have overshadowed an already fraught international agenda for Russia.

The Kremlin has decided to begin throttling Telegram, the country’s most widely used social media platform for communication and access to information. Although preparations for such a move had been evident, the decision nonetheless came as a shock to many, including senior officials, businesses, and representatives of the pro-war community. The systemic opposition chose to speak out against the measure. While this carries no tangible political weight, it signals emerging discrepancies within the ruling elite. The FSB, which stands behind the decision, was compelled to justify its actions publicly. The measure is highly likely to be implemented, yet it will have a noticeable impact on public sentiment.

In international affairs, the Munich Security Conference was a central event, exposing growing transatlantic tensions and mistrust. This has occurred notwithstanding attempts by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to adopt a conciliatory tone. The discussions have intensified European debates about how to shape the continent’s future security and defence architecture without a dominant US role, and how to manage the Russia threat when Putin is failing to achieve victory in Ukraine yet is still committed to unrealistic objectives. Nuclear issues have moved to the centre of the discourse. Russia has observed these developments with limited interest but increasing concern.

With regard to Ukraine, talks in Geneva have opened a new chapter in diplomatic efforts. For the first time since April 2022, Russia has secured an opportunity to draw Ukraine into negotiations on the political aspects of a settlement — effectively a reproduction of the “Istanbul format” of 2022, to which Moscow has repeatedly referred as its preferred basis. The process, however, shows little sign of progress. Volodymyr Zelensky continues to push for a direct meeting with Putin, a scenario still unacceptable to Moscow. Kyiv faces a particularly difficult position: growing pressure from Washington, hesitant and divided European partners, and a Russia unwilling to abandon its maximalist demands.

Considerable attention has also focused on Armenia amid US Vice President JD Vance’s visit — the highest-ranking US official to ever visit the country. Armenia is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in June, and Russia is expected to seek to weaken the position of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan by supporting his opponents. Moscow appears to underestimate the significance of the intensifying Armenian–American engagement and is likely to double down in order to keep Yerevan within its sphere of geopolitical influence. At the same time, the Kremlin must calibrate its actions carefully so as not to provoke President Donald Trump.

Decision-making logic, internal splits, and the real trade-offs that never make it into open sources — all unpacked in the new R.Politik Bulletin No. 4 (178).

Find out much more on the Kremlin thinking in our latest issue.
https://t.co/nVcqjAAiOR

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

Russian-American relations navigate a delicate phase, with Abu Dhabi trilateral talks yielding no settlement breakthroughs despite U.S. pressure for resolution before summer. Moscow deems Kyiv's sequencing plan unworkable, irritated by Washington's dismissal of prior understandings, new demands on Ukraine and hostile rhetoric in the context of Venezuela, Cuba or Russian oil. We depict these topics in detail in our fresh R.Politik Bulletin, revealing the nuances one won't find in the media.

European engagement ramps up: French diplomat Emmanuel Bonne's unannounced Moscow visit prepares potential Macron-Putin dialogue, yet unofficially the Kremlin dismisses it as substance-free, absent a fundamental European policy shift. Moscow signals openness but harbours deep skepticism.

U.S. proposal for a new nuclear deal including China puts Moscow in an awkward position: dialogue is welcomed in principle, but viewed as unrealistic amid Beijing's refusal and Russia's call for broader inclusion.

Putin's pragmatism emerges in Syrian discussions, supporting interim President al-Sharaa to restore territorial integrity and maintain a modest Russian role via military-technical ties.

Economic pressures surface through asset sales: Domodedovo Airport sold at half value to a state-linked buyer amid investor reluctance.

Lukoil's conditional Carlyle deal freezes proceeds under sanctions, a lesser-evil calculation with rival bids ongoing, betting on future geopolitical relief.

Societal impacts deepen: the state has to significantly restrict the general access to higher education, simultaneously favoring war veterans, heightening inequity perceptions.

Ahead of September Duma elections, Telegram restrictions are seen as inevitable but questioned to avoid voter backlash.

GRU Lt Gen Alexeyev's assassination attempt prompts in Moscow swift Ukraine accusations, exposing security gaps for war-linked figures and setbacks of the FSB, but unlikely to foil the negotiations.

Find out much more on the Kremlin thinking in our latest Bulletin.
https://t.co/H6CNrqY1Ae

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

Over the past two weeks, the geopolitical cycle has intensified and become more volatile. The Maduro extraction was followed by Trump’s forceful threat to annex Greenland, accompanied by sustained pressure on Denmark and other European NATO allies. The chaos at Davos—marked by gloomy interventions from the leaders of Canada and Belgium, unexpected criticism of Europe by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and a series of disrupted meetings—reflected a broader sense of fragmentation in the global order.

In the latest R.Politik bulletin, we examine how Russia is interpreting and positioning itself within this evolving context. While Trump’s modus operandi—characterised by force, pressure, blackmail, and incompetence—is undoubtedly alarming to Moscow, it also creates significant tactical openings. The Kremlin has adjusted its position on both the Greenland claim and Trump’s Board of Peace initiative, carefully balancing strategic interests with potential situational gains.

Amid these shifts, a new round of discussions on the war in Ukraine has begun. The first Russia–Ukraine–US trilateral talks took place in Abu Dhabi, following a preparatory visit to Moscow by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. What does the choice of the Russian delegation tell us? What are Putin’s intentions? What does the Kremlin expect to see further, demonstrating pragmatism coupled with still-actual maximalist demands?

On the domestic front, January brought unusual delays in wage payments to social workers in several regions—a reflection of growing economic imbalances and mounting budgetary pressure at the regional level.

At the same time, the Kremlin has accelerated preparations for the State Duma elections, as indicated by a leaked draft list of United Russia’s leading candidates. The list, headed by Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Lavrov, points not only to early electoral planning but also to ongoing internal wrangling over the party’s configuration and prospective personnel changes.

Finally, an emergency in the Belgorod region—where hundreds of thousands of residents were left without heating or electricity following Ukrainian retaliatory strikes—has exposed serious weaknesses in crisis response and the federal centre’s reluctance to publicly acknowledge the severity of the disruption.

For those monitoring how the Russian state is adjusting—strategically and structurally—this bulletin offers grounded, non-public insight essential for understanding what comes next.
https://t.co/byara227gA

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

🚨 Why is Moscow perplexed by Trump's swift Venezuela "special operation"—and how is it reshaping Putin's Ukraine calculations?
As headlines buzz with Maduro's capture, US oil control, Greenland threats, and stalled Ukraine talks, my new R.Politik Bulletin No. 1 (175) reveals Russia's contradictory responses and strategic shifts you won't find in mainstream coverage.

With 2026 off to a turbulent start—US seizures of Russian-linked tankers, NATO tensions over Greenland, and fears of Venezuelan oil flooding markets—this edition unpacks the pressures converging on Russian policymaking.

Key insights you'll find inside:

📌Ukraine Peace Talks on the Brink: US, Ukraine, and Europe near a full framework with NATO-style security guarantees—leaving Moscow in a precarious spot: disrupt without alienating Trump. After an alleged drone hit on Putin's residence and a fresh Oreshnik strike on Lviv, Russia's hardening its stance: Will Putin retract earlier "Anchorage deal" concessions?

📌Venezuela Shockwaves in Moscow: Trump's Maduro capture sparks apprehension, awe, and discord. Ultra-patriots express indignation at the "embarrassing" contrast to Ukraine's prolonged war; some in leadership debate if it's a threat or opens a "new wonder world." Exclusive: Moscow's confused reaction and how it views this as a blow to the international order.

📌Greenland Factor Looms: As Trump doubles down on acquiring the territory "at any cost," testing NATO unity—Putin sees tactical opportunities in disrupting alliances short-term, prioritizing less confrontation with the US and more hostility toward Europe.

📌Domestic Developments: Putin's year-end meeting with big business signals pessimism amid inflation and stagnation. Plus, speculation swirls on Dmitry Kozak: Prime minister contender or sidelined figure?

📌Rising Xenophobia Wave: Anti-migrant backlash surges with Indian laborers' influx, exposing rifts between security hawks and economy chiefs facing labor shortages.

2026 Outlook: What Russians really expect this year, plus hard data on 2025's industrial slowdown locking in "economy mode."

This bulletin cuts through the noise with exclusive analysis on Russia's opportunistic pivot—less confrontational toward the US, more hostile to Europe—amid a world order in flux. If you're tracking #VenezuelaCrisis, #UkraineWar, or Trump's assertive moves, this is your insider edge.
Subscribe to R.Politik for the full issue, archives, and future deep dives—stay ahead in 2026's geopolitical storm.

#Russia #Putin #Trump #Geopolitics #Greenland #maduro

https://t.co/jRjWMRiy4P

[Tatiana Stanovaya @Stanovaya]

Exciting news, everyone! 🚀

I know that many of us are currently consumed by events in Venezuela, but I have something important and exciting to distract you with. For the past two years, I've been developing StarkTalk, an exclusive online platform designed as a virtual Track 2 forum for leading Russian and Western experts on strategic security, foreign policy, arms control, and related fields.

What is StarkTalk? I envision it as an elite expert club for sharing ideas on peaceful coexistence between the West and Russia within the strategic framework: how to navigate a tectonically shifting world, collapsing international rules, and crumbling security architecture. The focus is to zoom out—avoiding direct discussion of the Ukraine conflict—and examine the broader picture of strategic changes. Experts can present contrasting views in a "pro and contra" format, engage in moderated discussions and chats, connect with peers, and submit proposals to build a shared bank of solutions for global security challenges. It's a unique opportunity for respected voices to network, debate, and influence forward-thinking strategies in a safe, respectful setting.

This is entirely my personal, independent project—self-funded, with no sponsors, donors, or institutional affiliations. To preserve its high-caliber, apolitical, and professional environment, registration is selective and requires pre-approval. This ensures StarkTalk remains an exclusive space for established professionals only, shielded from propaganda, hidden agendas, or unqualified participants, allowing for candid, structured exchanges among true peers.

I'm thrilled that distinguished experts such as @AlexGabuev , Samuel @scharap , Tatiana Mitrova @mitrovat , Pavel Podvig @russianforces , William Alberque @walberque have already joined. If you're a prominent professional in these areas with valuable insights—or have a topic you'd like to debate with a counterpart—this is your chance to contribute to a select community shaping the future.

Two ways to get involved:
- Follow this link to apply for registration and await selective approval: https://t.co/5RMQbJwBUd
- Email me directly at [email protected] to discuss participation.

For experts facing safety concerns (e.g., those based in Russia), we offer fully anonymous options: We'll verify your credentials privately, without any public traces, and represent you via a nickname with a brief expertise description.

We're launching soon (exact date TBA). More updates to follow.

Let's talk starkly. 💬

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

RT @Stanovaya: As 2025 draws to a close, the Ukraine-Russia peace talks remain stalled—but why is Moscow growing even more cautious about T…

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

📢 New R.Politik Bulletin №20 (172) just released.

What’s really happening behind the curtain as Trump’s team pushes a “peace plan” that reads suspiciously like Moscow’s wishlist?

We dissect:
• How much of the Witkoff-Kushner draft was shaped in the Kremlin
• Kirill Dmitriev’s quiet role as go-between
• Why even Russian insiders call the wording “ambiguous”
• Exact signals to watch in the coming weeks

Plus:
• FSB’s aggressive new grip on all digital communications (and the turf war it’s triggering inside the regime)
• Putin–Tokayev: walking the sanctions tightrope with Kazakhstan
• EU visa ban fallout: weaponised for domestic propaganda, crippling the anti-war diaspora
• “Technology levy” squeezing the IT sector dry

Details and context that go beyond what’s visible in open sources.

Read the full bulletin (subscribers only)

https://t.co/OdTIHd5G9Z

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

📌 R.Politik Bulletin 19 (171) is out now.

IN FOCUS:
A rare institutional clash in the Russian power system. Zaporizhzhia head Yevgeny Balitsky’s attempt to subordinate the regional election commission and dismiss its head triggered a backlash from the Central Election Commission, the Prosecutor General’s Office, and the Presidential Administration.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS:
– US nuclear tests: Moscow elaborates possible responses amid growing arms control uncertainty
– Lavrov’s "disappearance": Who is acting against the foreign minister, and why
– State Duma 2026 campaign: AI tools used for voter profiling and targeting
– Venezuela: Moscow navigates its position amid rising external pressure
– Tver’s new governor: Appointment process highlights wartime staffing issues
– Belousov’s new deputy: Move to align Defence Ministry with defence industry
– Lukoil–Gunvor deal blocked by OFAC, raising risk of nationalisation or asset loss

This issue delivers detail on internal decisions and policy recalibration unavailable in open sources.

https://t.co/ljrxD7A8Zy

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

The latest R.Politik Bulletin No. 17 (169) is now available, offering an in-depth look at Russia’s shifting external and domestic landscape in early October 2025.

IN FOCUS
We analyse the entrenched tactical deadlock between Russia and the United States, where political dialogue has stalled and military risk is rising. Moscow’s attempt to revive the Anchorage framework now coincides with Washington’s deliberations on supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine—an escalation the Kremlin equates with a nuclear threat. At the same time, Europe’s tougher posture—moves to unlock frozen Russian assets, constrain the “shadow fleet,” and develop an air-defence shield over western Ukraine—has deepened systemic confrontation.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
- Wartime fiscal tightening: the 2026–2028 budget entrenches a long-term “war economy.”
- “Nuclear Week” in Moscow: Russia leverages its atomic sector for strategic signalling.
- The Momotov case: prosecution extends into the judiciary.
- Moldova’s elections: results expose limits of Russian influence in the region.
- New envoy to the Northwestern District: occasional personnel policy.
- Indicators: record fuel prices; mobilisation fears rising, war-support levels stable.

https://t.co/Y89aw63phv

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

The latest issue of R.Politik’s Bulletin (No. 16, September 2025) is out now.

IN FOCUS
We analyse the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace — not only the benefits Moscow can extract from such incidents, but also the risks they carry. We also explore Belarus’s bid to act as a mediator between Moscow, Kyiv, and the Trump administration.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
- Regional elections: a test ahead of the State Duma vote
- Alexander Gutsan as Prosecutor General: a less ambitious course expected
- Dmitry Kozak’s departure: anticipated, yet politically revealing
- Religious processions: an unpleasant surprise for the Kremlin
- Campaign against activist Roman Alekhin: inconsistency in decision-making
- Economic indicators: falling investment and a state-shaped car market

At R.Politik, we help to understand major Russian developments, the underlying interests and motives, and the strategic consequences often overlooked in open sources.

https://t.co/FXrwvI5n3F

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

R.Politik Bulletin No. 15 (167) is out after the summer break.

We analyse the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska. Moscow achieved tactical gains: Trump no longer demands a ceasefire before talks, acknowledged Russia’s nuclear status, and hinted that Ukraine must consider concessions. Yet the deeper gulf remains: Washington dismisses Russia’s “root causes” narrative, Europe insists on shaping security guarantees, and Kyiv rejects territorial compromise.

Within four weeks, the situation reverted to a stalemate. Trump threatens new sanctions, Putin continues the war, Ukraine holds the line, and Europe dreams of security guarantees. One should not expect sharp changes, either on the battlefield or in negotiations.

We also examine Russia’s internal pressures:
– Nuclear rhetoric moderated, but deterrence remains central to Kremlin strategy.
– China ties reinforced at the SCO Tianjin summit and during Putin’s visit to Beijing, underscoring both dependence and bargaining asymmetry.
– Digital restrictions tightened: WhatsApp and Telegram calls blocked, while MAX messenger is forced onto users despite resistance.
– Judicial reshuffle: Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov set to become Supreme Court chairman, signalling wider elite adjustments.
– Economic fragility: a gasoline crisis driven by refinery strikes, reduced subsidies, and seasonal demand, alongside slowing growth, corporate losses, and rising bad loans.

Don’t miss our forthcoming Essential Ukraine report, to be released on 10 September.

https://t.co/oIPryuLHpC

[Balazs Jarabik @BalazsJarabik]

1/ Essential Ukraine 6 is out - at times of growing uncertainty.
As Russia pushes forward with drone-based maneuver warfare, Ukraine enters a new, shaky phase—marked by external hesitation and internal consolidation. A short 🧵 with key conclusions

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

🚨 New R.Politik bulletin out (No. 14 — 166)

IN FOCUS
We examine the suicide of Roman Starovoit, who took his own life shortly after being dismissed as Minister of Transport. His political downfall, managed quietly by the Kremlin, underscores how elite networks recalibrate by distancing themselves from compromised figures, while the attendance of senior officials at his funeral reflects a discreet display of solidarity from parts of the elite.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Putin: Moscow sees a carte blanche to intensify its offensive in Ukraine
New bill penalises online searches for extremist content: is the Kremlin divided?
Omnipresent mobile internet disruptions: a socio-political challenge for the authorities
Vladimir Kekhman under investigation for fraud: a case study in the survival strategies of the Russian elite
Quiet reshuffling in the Constitutional Court: further neutralisation of the judiciary

R.Politik. Not a narrative but a map—for those who follow the underlying picture.

https://t.co/cfOTABZpsS

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

🚨 New from R.Politik Bulletin No. 13 (165):

The sharpest Russia-Azerbaijan rift since the early post-Soviet period is unfolding—not just a diplomatic spat, but a deeper shift in regional power dynamics. Baku is testing the limits of Moscow’s relevance in the South Caucasus.

🧵 Highlights from this issue ⬇️

1️⃣ IN FOCUS:
Moscow-Baku tensions are escalating behind the scenes. Military confidence, Turkish backing, and changing energy routes are emboldening Azerbaijan. Russia, distracted and diminished, is struggling to keep its foothold.

2️⃣ NATO Summit:
Europe adopts a 5 percent defence spending target, reinforcing Moscow’s belief in Western disunity and strategic overreach.

3️⃣ US, NATO & Ukraine:
Mixed signals from Washington and a pause in US military aid to Ukraine feed Russia’s sense of tactical opportunity.

4️⃣ EEU Summit:
Russia highlights symbolic trade deals with the UAE and Mongolia to signal resilience amid isolation.

5️⃣ Dagestan:
The Dagnefteprodukt case illustrates how Moscow uses economic levers to unsettle regional power structures.

6️⃣ Turchak’s Drift:
Still sidelined in Altai, Turchak continues to face political stagnation in the Altai Republic.

7️⃣ LDPR Infighting:
The expulsion of Yaroslav Nilov reveals deepening fractures within Zhirinovsky’s former party.

8️⃣ Communist Party Congress:
Zyuganov holds his ground while rejecting reform, under quiet but growing administrative control.

📌 The full bulletin offers a level of depth and strategic context unavailable in open sources. For those tracking Russia beyond the headlines, it’s essential reading.
https://t.co/VEJNBitUGc

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

Dear Friends,
Amid rising uncertainty and alarming escalation in the Middle East, we present our latest R.Politik Bulletin No. 12 (164).

IN FOCUS

Israel’s strike on Iran, followed by the US bombing of key nuclear facilities on 22 June, has marked a significant escalation in the longstanding regional conflict, raising the prospect of a broader and more protracted war. Although the American operation was framed as a one-off, decisive effort to coerce Tehran into abandoning its nuclear ambitions, the aftermath suggests that Washington’s involvement may further deepen, with uncertain results. Iran, having likely dispersed critical materials and preserved technical capacity ahead of the US strikes, may now be more motivated to pursue nuclear weaponisation as a deterrent.

Against this backdrop, Russia—despite its partnership with Iran—has calibrated its response cautiously. Moscow has avoided escalation with Israel, maintained working dialogue with Trump, and positioned itself to pursue both strategic and tactical advantages. The conflict provides cover to intensify the war in Ukraine while also contributing to broader global instability, particularly in the domain of nuclear non-proliferation.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS

- SPIEF: Putin’s signalling and economic concerns
- Sergey Chemezov: Rostec’s head renders himself indispensable to Putin
- Lev Shlosberg’s detention: the patriotic opposition as a growing concern for the Kremlin
- Malofeev’s ‘Forum of the Future’: a bid for political relevance
- The Post-Soviet Space: internal discussions and tensions

https://t.co/5m7lWv6iVP

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

Dear Friends,
We are pleased to present the latest edition of our R.Politik Bulletin No. 11 (163).

IN FOCUS
The nature of the Russian-Uranian war has been gradually shifting. While Russia intensifies its offensive and gains more territory, Ukraine has undertaken bolder and more provocative actions, targeting Russian strategic aircraft and railway infrastructure. Both sides are escalating: Russia acts on the belief that Ukraine is militarily doomed and lacks the resources to overturn that, while Ukraine demonstrates it still holds cards in the fight against Russia, targeting it deep behind the front lines.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
- Militarised Nationalisation: Rostec seeks greater control
- Foreign Companies Under Pressure: Putin is set to strangle foreign IT platforms
- Protecting Domestic Producers: the state allocates preferential treatment
- The Case of Roman Abramovich: caught between the West and the Kremlin
- The Nationalisation of Lesta: the end of duplicity
- ‘Anti-War’ Scientists: quiet signals of dissent

https://t.co/llYzi4vZ7I

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

We are pleased to present the second edition of Essential Ukraine, authored by Balazs Jarábik, following his recent visits to Kyiv and Washington.

What’s inside:
- A strategic outlook on the fragile Istanbul talks, evolving US policy, and the uncertain path toward a potential ceasefire.
- A detailed analysis of the military balance: Russian tactical gains, Ukraine’s endurance limits, and the war’s transition into a grinding phase of attrition.
- Insight into the changing architecture of US assistance—from congressional aid to bilateral deals, ISR support, and commercial procurement.
- A sober look at Ukraine’s internal resilience: inflation, demographic decline, and the legitimacy challenges of centralized wartime governance.
- An investigation into the assassination of Ukraine’s most controversial—and most talented—lawyer, Andriy Portnov.
- A reflection on Ukraine’s social contract: decentralization, the enduring strength of local leadership, and the meaning of legitimacy in a prolonged war.

Understanding Ukraine’s internal trajectory is no longer optional—it is essential.
https://t.co/8MW5hDLgPr

[R.Politik @R__Politik]

Our new R.Politik Bulletin No. 10 (162) is out.

IN FOCUS
Russia is pursuing a dual-track strategy: direct talks with Ukraine while intensifying offensive operations. Moscow's intention is clear: Kyiv must cease resistance, accept Russia’s key demands—which it frames as addressing the core causes of the conflict—and then a genuine ceasefire may be on offer. President Putin remains highly tactical, fluctuating between escalation and diplomatic engagement depending on the circumstances. The next step is the publication of the Russian memorandum draft to be discussed in Istanbul.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
- ‘Golden Dome’: Russia’s Contradictory Reaction
- Tanker War: A Dangerous Development
- Arrest of Publishers: A New Stage of Repression
- Seizure of Emigrants’ Property: Volodin Seeks to Secure His Political Future
- Prison for Melkonyants: An Unpleasant Event for the Elite
- Political Infighting in Khakassia: Another Case of Internal Fractures

https://t.co/wkb6YrgCJl