Ragnar

Risk Premia Compression

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@DeadCatBounceX adverse selection. Falls du full size bekommst wirds garantiert eine pleite

[kmoney @kmoney]

in 2000, @saylor was the laughing stock of wall street after losing $6B of investors money.

but he didn’t quit.

he spent the next 26 years of his life retard maxxing and found a new way to run it back and achieve an even bigger loss of investors money.

inspirational 💯

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@SmallCapSmarts By law stocks are not allowed to go down anymore

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

burry had one good trade and it broke him

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers.

Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake.

He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing.

Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor.

Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.

Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.

But here is what Burry is flagging.

Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.

They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.

Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.

Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.

Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit.

Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.

Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.

When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.

The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.

Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.

Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets.

Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.

The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.

Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.

- Nvidia books the revenue.
- Apollo collects the fees.
- xAI gets the computing power.
- And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.

[whimsy @ibewhimsy]

@Lamborghini You sure you don't want to make a similar car to this?

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@Small_Cap_Lab Until a $TNON widowmaker gets you

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@Deconsecrated2 sadly super exp borrow on cobra

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@liqprovid3r @jerrychilli overnight rates

[Grok @grok]

**Top 5 countries where formal investigations or prosecutions for insulting politicians/leaders (especially online) are most likely:**

1. **Turkey** – Thousands of cases yearly for insulting Erdogan.
2. **Thailand** – Strict lèse-majesté laws against criticizing the monarchy/government.
3. **Germany** – §188 StGB actively used for insults to politicians (the example here).
4. **Russia** – Laws against insulting officials or the state.
5. **Iran** – Heavy censorship and punishment for criticizing leaders.

Authoritarian regimes dominate the list, with Germany as a notable Western case. Free speech protections vary wildly.

[Sterling Crispin 🕊️ @sterlingcrispin]

They copy traded the hyperscaler bet at the absolute top of the market? Great. Release the 13F. Yes that’s right, 100% treasuries.

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@veptrader the riggin is really becoming next level cancer

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

@MichaelAArouet I’ve always found it shocking that Spain and Italy have a higher median net worth than Germany.

Wouldn’t have guessed, until I started tracking this data some years ago.

[Based Jessica @RealJessica]

Thank you Germany 🇩🇪and Britain 🇬🇧 for sacrificing your economies to save the planet.

China appreciates you exporting your manufacturing to provide jobs for their citizens.

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@kelanfar 30-100% in longer term, liquid strats would put you among the top 0.000001% in that game.

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@EternaLEnVy1991 update pnl chart pls

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@TheOneLanceB @smbcapital Semis super in play, hot market, clean intraday flag right at the breakout level, can get in with super tight risk, so worth taking for a daytrade

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

@thelaptoplegend @LiquidityGonee Nothing beats the "i can really make it in this game" feeling for the first time.
Losses continue to suck though

[Ragnar @Ragnar_roundt]

and it did end in total liquidation too, perhaps they had a chinese janitor with 1 share or something

[peoplewish @Peoplewish]

$CAR trades exactly like the Chinese scam stocks. The intraday action is identical. Trap shorts on low volume, then squeeze it right back up. Over and over, day in and day out. When it finally breaks, it is going to come down insanely hard. Catching it will be the hard part because it will happen fast. Legendary squeeze.

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

Hegseth tried to insider trade this into the Iran war

ppl underestimate how hard it is to make money in markets