New w/ @AISecurityInst & @UniofOxford:
Frontier AI can now out-persuade expert humans in conversation - incl. world-champ debaters and professional canvassers.
This held even when humans chose their topics, prepared in advance, and competed for £1,000 prizes 🧵
@MoonlitMonkey69@Simon__Grimm@robertwiblin > From a defender POV, finding is what matters, right? As I understand it, fable was not really much better at finding.
Not exactly. Finding matters, but chaining matters more, and that was Mythos’ advantage. Fable was heavily censored for that request. The gap is legit large.
@scottlincicome The UK and the EU and Australia are all politely telling American Social Media companies to go away. They won’t ban it Chinese-style, but this is the next best thing.
“it has discovered that “not regulating AI” is in fact a great excuse for refusing to support laws that could constrain the admin’s exercise of power. In other words, “not regulating AI” is a *justification* for the tyrannical control of AI by the state.”
Precisely as I predicted, the recent cyber EO, which admin officials insisted was not a licensing regime, ends up in practice being a licensing regime. Forget “voluntary,” forget “permissionless.”
AI is licensed now, but the requirements change constantly and are always a secret, even to the administration itself, which will discover the rules spontaneously in real time as it reacts to events. This means also that the rules are in practice stricter and more roughly enforced for organizations the administration does not like.
Can you blame Anthropic for making itself so disliked? In a sense, sure. The problem is that this childish “he said, she said” is all we have to go on in our analysis of the situation. And because there is no transparency (it is all calls and texts between “White House officials” and “Anthropic executives”), in practice it comes down to who you trust more.
This is why we create laws! To abstract away from personal power struggles and grudges, to submit to the steady application of rules so that complex human activity can unfold with predictability.
The rule of law has been being eroded in the U.S. for my entire life, but it is especially acute in AI because of both the lack of much preexisting law to serve as bulwark, and because of this admin’s insistence that it is Not Regulating AI. This has become an excuse for vagueness and evasiveness in rule-drafting (see the cyber EO), and this in turn makes the lawlessness worse.
The government wants to apply its force to frontier AI, that much is clear. It wants to make the industry submit. And in service of that goal, it has discovered that “not regulating AI” is in fact a great excuse for refusing to support laws that could constrain the admin’s exercise of power. In other words, “not regulating AI” is a *justification* for the tyrannical control of AI by the state.
This should alarm you regardless of what party you are in. What you are seeing now will be used against you one day soon, if not by this admin then by its successors. This is the antithesis of the rule of law.
The administration cannot and will not fix this problem alone. We need Congress to step in and impose rules on this mess.
@deredleritt3r I definitely share your b-point. But let me offer a downgrade point on Bio. Most of that data comes from a Pharma consortium. Those models are joint proprietary ventures, which are not being released to the public. Because the data is proprietary so is the model.
@daniel_271828@inductionheads I think it could happen. It's certainly a risk to which we should pay attention (and the labs do). I am not nearly as worried about loss of control as I am about the other risks, which, to me, seem both more immediate and more concrete.
Every other city after winning a sports title: That was awesome. I hope we do it again
New York writers after winning an NBA title: it was as if humanity rediscovered its hidden social potentiality, rescuing a lost Weltanschauung from the depths of neoliberal anomie
The 10,000 San Franciscans who are about to become millionaires in 2026 are going to fund a new generation of art, architecture and ideas that will shape the world
Make no mistake: post-Mythos, the United States has a licensing regime for AI. It’s just informal, with no consistent rules or firm boundaries on state power or public transparency. Cobalt mining in the Congo is vastly more institutionalized than frontier AI licensing in the US.
None of this was some weeks long back and forth. I was at Anthropic's HQ on Friday reporting when this all unfolded. Dario is not at a wellness retreat. The Feds seemed to be scrambling to try and make an example of Anthropic again.
This is not technical. It's petty.