I am a believer
I believe that there is a God
I am a scientist
I see God as a scientist who created humanity and the entire animal kingdom
No investment advice
Analysts talk about valuations in terms of the price versus how much money a company makes, or how much money they pay out in dividends, etc. How about price compared to how much money exists in total? It is pretty far up there.
If you die without a plan...
- The government takes 40% in tax
- Probate court costs $100k+
- Your kids get the scraps
If you love your family, here's every document you need to protect them:
(from a CPA & father of two)
1) Emergency Access List
This should include:
-> All bank account numbers
-> Investment account logins
-> Life insurance policies
-> 401k/IRA beneficiaries
-> Safe deposit box location
-> Password manager master code
Keep a digital & physical version for safety...
And make sure your spouse has access.
2) Legal Documents
-> Will (name guardians for kids)
-> Durable Power of Attorney
-> Healthcare Power of Attorney
-> Living Will/Healthcare Directive
Setting all of this up costs about $500...
($1,500 with an attorney)
But without them, the state decides everything.
3) Money Protection
Your family will need time to mourn.
Make sure they can do it without going broke:
-> Term life insurance (10x income)
-> Emergency fund (6-12 mo in a HYSA)
-> Retirement accounts with spouse access
4) The "First 48 Hours" Sheet
Write down clear instructions for your family:
Call this attorney: [Name/Number]
Call this CPA: [Name/Number]
File life insurance claim here: [Details]
Don't touch investments for 6 months
All bills are on autopay from [Account]
Grief destroys decision making.
This protects them.
5) Business Owner Addition
If you have a business, set up:
-> Buy sell agreements
-> Key person insurance
-> Business succession plan
-> Separate LLC owned by trust
If your company can't survive without you...
It's a 9-5 with extra steps.
6) Trust Setup
A proper trust can save your family $400k+ in probate costs.
But 90% of them are set up wrong:
-> Assets never get transferred in
-> Beneficiaries aren't updated
-> Pour-over will is missing
Here's how to fix that:
"Bulletproof" Trust System:
1) Revocable Living Trust
-> Avoids probate completely
-> Keeps finances private
-> Protects kids' inheritance
2) Pour-Over Will
-> Catches forgotten assets
3) Guardian Designation
-> Who raises your kids
-> How they get paid
Setting this up takes a weekend...
But ignoring it could cost your family everything.
So start before you're ready...
Because no one plans on dying.
Hope this helps!
Share with your spouse if you want to set this up...
And follow me for more 🤝🏻
After thoroughly examining the evidence, I am convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that the death, crucifixion & resurrection of Jesus Christ are historical facts — not a myth or hoax.
Early eyewitness accounts, the empty tomb, & fulfilled prophecies from centuries earlier make the case too compelling to reject. The evidence leaves no other reasonable conclusion.
I may be the King of the Charts, but there is overwhelming evidence that Jesus Christ is the King of Kings.
Happy Easter
#EasterSunday2026 #Easter #Heisrisen #HappyEaster #JesusChrist #Jesus $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NDX $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin #SP500
My take, and this is how bubbles generally end, is that after we get a good solid shakeout in markets this year, we should see a parabolic advance that will make the Internet Bubble pale in comparison, into a full on blow off top. It should last at least 2-3 years, 4 if lucky.
I've always said that I expect the AI bubble to be much larger than the Internet bubble, because we are witnessing a convergence of many different mega-technology trends simultaneously. But, we are now approaching the 2000 top Schiller PE valuations in stocks (cont) #AI#bubble
Here is my current take on the very long term gold chart, with EW and LT cycle counts included. If there are any major changes to this chart, I will post it. But for now, I think we have many years of upside ahead of us. Of course, nothing ever goes in a straight line, but that major breakout level in the 2000 range should really hold from hereon out.
@SubuTrade Record inflows into a falling ETF usually mean the bottom isn't in yet. The crowd is early because they're anchoring to old highs. Software margins are still compressing from AI spend -- the real buy signal is when inflows dry up and the last dip buyer gives up.
After 60 years of watching markets I’ve found that the financial sector is traditionally the first sector to lead a new market move. Energy is traditionally the last.
Merry Christmas!
December 26th is the second most bullish date of the year, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 0.49%
It ranks #1 for the % of Days Positive
h/t @RyanDetrick
Closing the deficit, and then going further to actually pay off the accumulated debt, cannot be accomplished via higher revenues. It has to be done by cutting spending, which will be so unpleasant that Congress will never be able to do it. Here's why:
Since the 1930s, when Social Security taxes became a thing, every time that total tax receipts have gone above 18% of GDP, we have gotten a recession. EVERY TIME, and that includes 2022, which some people don't count, even though we had 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP in 2022. Sometimes just getting close to 18% has been enough, as in 2007, especially if the Fed screws up by keeping rates too high (like they are now).
The latest data as of July 2025 show trailing 12-month revenues at 17.0% of GDP. That is okay if it stays there. That's with $5.181 trillion of total federal revenues over the 12 months ending July 2025, and using a projected Q3 GDP of $30.4 trillion annualized rate. If you wish to do the calculations with different assumptions, feel free.
The current rate of tariff collections puts the US on pace for about $300 billion of additional revenue per year. If we add that $300B to the $5.181T cited above, that takes the last 12 months' revenues to 18.0% of GDP, assuming that we had been collecting tariffs at the current rate for each of the past 12 months.
That is a big assumption, and we have not done that yet. I am extrapolating the recent tariff collections rate forward with no modeling of how that might decrease (or maybe increase) in the months ahead. So there is no room for more revenues solving the deficit problem without pushing the US into a recession, which would cause revenues to drop.
In other words, yes, it is possible to tax Americans too much such that you actually collect less tax revenue.
As a footnote, spending for the past 12 months has been 23.4% of GDP. To get that down to the 17.0% of GDP we are collecting as revenues would require a 27% cut to federal spending. That is tough to imagine happening. DOGE is cutting some of the fat, but to cut 27% would mean cutting some serious meat.
$GOOGL is approaching its all time high at 207. The formation we've seen since February looks like a cup to me. If it sells off after hitting 207 or a bit higher, I would look for a bottom at 190 or lower to form a handle. The pattern could take it much higher into 2026.
$SPX has rallied 25.9% over the last 16 weeks. This is only the 5th such case in the last 30 years. The other cases occurred in 1997, 1998, 2009 and 2020. Cyclically, the closest case is 1997. An int. term top may be near but we could still see a powerful rally into next summer.
Many years ago, late 1980s I think, Gerald Appel incorporated that point into his legendary Time Trend III market timing system, using a reading above 0.615 for the 10EMA of A/(A+D) as a "continuation signal", meaning to ignore sell signals for a period after one of those.