Rasmus Bartholdy

Senior equity portfolio manager and economist. Macro and risk regimes/cycles are drivers of my investment decisions. Doing manager selection as well.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@aeberman12 @vtchakarova I think you miss the point: the US needs the Hormuz Strait RELATIVELY less than Europe, Asia and others. The US has a strategic and tactical advantage.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@PolymarketIntel Straight to hell

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@WallStreetMav @TheAliceSmith Savages

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@jaynordlinger @kurrild Listen to how the reporters have talked and systematically lied about Trump in the first place. Then his rhetoric makes completely sense

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@GeorgeSelgin Exactly who in the current government silenced exactly which people?

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@america @elonmusk the difference between debt of ordinary people and the government is that the government can print its own money. And that is typically the endgame. In the end they print.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@elonmusk I disagree. There should not be any European Parliament or Commission in the first place

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@AndreasSteno This could happen: When the Trump drilling starts, the oil supply will go up and oil futures will go down with the 10Y.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@MikaelSarwe A hypothesis: As the RRP gradually is being exhausted, QE will re-start and liquidity can continue fuelling the markets. Consequently your charts can stay frothy for some time ahead. Given that it's an election year, this outcome is very likely.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@lykketoft Hele fire gange i historien er palæstinenserne blevet tilbudt en stat ved siden af den israelske stat. De har afslået alle gange, fordi de aldrig vil anerkende Israel som en legitim stat. Glem det.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@cekicozlem Du stiller ikke det relevante spørgsmål @cekicozlem: hvorfor løslader Hamas ikke alle gidsler øjeblikkeligt og overdrager terroristerne til IDF? Hvis de gjorde dette, ville hverken børn eller forældre miste livet.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@BobEUnlimited It's a political business cycle. As simple as that.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@CarstenVal You are actually right. The presidential election cycle effect on the stock market has 'only' worked in 15 out of 18 elections since 1952. That is in 83% of all elections which is still significant.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@BobEUnlimited Your underlying assumption is that r* has not changed since 1980. In think this is wrong. Hence you should be very careful to draw firm conclusions from the chart.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@MikaelSarwe The fiscal is out of control with a government deficit of 7-8% of GDP whilst the unemployment rate is only 3.8%. This makes the job very hard for the Fed. The fiscal and monetary policy coordination is a disaster.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@VrntPerception The Fannie Mae TOTAL delinquency rate is at historical lows (since Feb 2003). This paints a different picture.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@CarstenVal The 5Y5Y only goes back to 2004. How can you calculate this spread so far back in time?

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@MaMoMVPY ... and rule of law + instututions.

[Rasmus Bartholdy @RasBartholdy]

@MaMoMVPY @Perth_Tolle Agree on the G. But the E and the S are important as well. However the distinction is this. Good companies manage E and S to achieve success (profits). Bad companies misuse both E, S and G in activist virtue signalling which eventually destroys business and profits.