Sugar.HedgeHog

Seasoned Ags-Softs-commodity Expert. Humble. "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing". (Archilochus of Paros)

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@ARealSugarExprt @Mr_Squiggles_ @sugarcapuchin @NotWilmarSugar Hello @ARealSugarExprt back to this- Dec-24 turned out be drier than normal which helped extend the crushing season in Brazil. Indeed, "rain makes cane"... so what's the 25/26 Brazil outlook after drier than normal Dec-24 AND Jan-25? @NotWilmarSugar @GreenPoolComms @HedgeSugar

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@NotWilmarSugar @HedgeSugar Perhaps @HedgeSugar is mistaken ISMA and Czarnikow? @StephenGeldart @Czarnikow your global SnD surplus moved from a mid-year +8.8m mt to a +4.3m mt surplus in Dec/24. Should we expect a 4-5m cut to your India prod. estimate? Should we expect a 24/25 global SnD deficit soon?

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@ARealSugarExprt @NotWilmarSugar It absolutely does. It can add/remove 200/300K of sugar from an already tight Jan-Mar 2025 trade flow. Don't count on much Mar-25 sugar production....sucrose content in Mar is at least 40% lower than in Oct/Nov...trouble getting sugar produced in Oct-Nov? Imagine in March...

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@HedgeSugar welcome back! Good to see you are now on the right side of the sugar story and that you have not lost the taste for hyperboles. But I must add:

REAL Men don't simply disappear with their tail between their legs. @SugarWilmar at least recognized they were wrong...

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@NotWilmarSugar It should trigger a little wave of mix and TRS downgrades in the market. Mills struggled even more to produce sugar with the colapse of sucrose content. Anyone still believes in 40M sugar this season?? 39.5M is the very best outcome I see.

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

#CorporateWorld...This looks so familiar.

Have a great weekend all!

#QuietdaysinSB
#Calmb4theStorm?
#UNICA
#BrazilRains🐈&🐩
#IndiaEthanol
#IndiaHarvestKickingOff
#WeatherExtremes4Longer?

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

I can’t stop watching this

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

London's Guildhall Sugar Dinner never disappoints. The grandiose of the venue, the ceremonial, the quality of the food all put the NY sugar event to shame. Brazil puts up a good show and we are all looking forward to it already! #Brazil2025

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@NotWilmarSugar @HedgeSugar @SugarWilmar Overall, I believe the role played by some of us on this platform, presenting ideas, raising awareness to relevant facts/trends, highlighting the other side of the story has had a positive impact on our market. More interaction between opposing sides of the mkt would be a great!

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@NotWilmarSugar @HedgeSugar @SugarWilmar Well, the conclusion is quite obvious to me. A couple of weeks ago @SugarWilmar accepted it got Brazil massively wrong. We
all get things wrong. It's commendable they acknowledged it publicly. On the other hand... @HedgeSugar cowardly simply vanished. Good riddance though.

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

Good illustration of sugar traders fact checking their sources before going short the market (or delaying purchases hoping for lower prices) in recent months.

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

This post aged nicely. We had a few UNICA reports since this one which kept scaring those on the picture.

What's in store in this week's UNICA release covering first 2 weeks of Sep? @NotWilmarSugar @StephenGeldart @iso_sugar @GreenPoolComms?

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

Some Geneva-based folks exiting their short position in sugar this past week. A position they held dearly for several months... @iso_sugar @DATAGRO @Czarnikow @NotWilmarSugar @tx_marcelo @sugaronline @IndiaIsma @sugartraders @UNICA_cana

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@StephenGeldart @NotWilmarSugar Hello Stephen, in biz free lunch is never on the table. You at Cz share for marketing. The intention of the others in the trade active here was always to influence the narrative for their own benefit. They lost the plot long ago and disappeared. Back now rebranded as bulls?

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

Also, @SugarWilmar, with that 2M sugar production range (38.8-40.8M) there is no way you gotta be wrong this time 😂😂😂

I get you though...after getting every single element of the sugar market absolutely wrong in the last 12 months you surely miss the feeling of being right.

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

So good to have you back here @SugarWilmar . Looking forward to more dynamic interactions going forward. Re-starting perhaps next week with the early September UNICA report? Should we also expect the return of @HedgeSugar as another late converted bull ???

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

Another timely reminder to ags traders, particularly sugar traders.

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

#sugar#TGIF

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@sugartraders @StephenGeldart @ARealSugarExprt @NotWilmarSugar Hello @sugartraders Trade flows projections are not built out of thin air. They are a result of proper S&D projections. Weather influences both S&D and logistical capacity and therefore trade flows. When properly done, these 3 are intrinsically linked, aren't they?

[Sugar.HedgeHog @RealSugarHedge]

@NotWilmarSugar It's all about the sugar mix my friend.Mind nothing else when it comes to Brazil sugar in the next 45 days. Beyond that? Well, will there be any relevant amount of cane left to be crushed? Will mills bother to crush such low yielding cane? I would not. You see it differently?