Fun game, draw a random life out of what we know about the entire history of human population statistics.
I died at six months old in Bronze Age Southeast Asia.
https://t.co/3WUkfzKquy
Of course that's your contention. You're a first-time SaaS bear. You just got finished listening to some podcast, Dario on Dwarkesh, probably. Now you think it’s the end of white collar work and seat-based pricing is screwed. You're gonna be convinced of that til tomorrow when you get to “Something Big is Happening”. Then you’ll install ClawdBot on a Mac Mini, vibe code a dashboard on top of a postgres database and say we’re all just a couple ralph loops away from building a Salesforce competitor. That’s gonna last until next week when you discover context graphs, and then you're gonna be talking about how the systems of record will be disintermediated by an agentic layer and reposting OAI marketing graphics.
“Well, as a matter of fact, I won't, because ultimately the application layer is just ….”
The application layer is just business logic on top a CRUD database. You got that from Satya’s appearance on the BG2 pod, December 2024, right? Yeah, I saw that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us? Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter? Or...is that your thing? You get into the replies of anyone posting a SaaS ticker. You watch some podcast and then pawn it off as your own idea just to impress some VCs and embarrass some anon who’s long SaaS? See the sad thing about a guy like you is in a couple years you're gonna start doing some thinking on your own and you're gonna come up with the fact that there are two certainties in life. One: don't do that. And two: you dropped thirty grand on Mac Minis and LLM API calls to come to the same conclusion you could’ve got for free by following a handful of VC accounts.
1/ General-purpose robotics is the rare technological frontier where the US / China started at roughly the same time and there's no clear winner yet.
To better understand the landscape, @zoeytang_1007, @intelchentwo, @vishnuman0 and I spent the last ~8 weeks creating a deep dive on humanoid robotics hardware and flew to China to see the supply chain firsthand.
Here's everything we've created + our takeaways about the components, humanoid comparisons, supply chains, and geopolitics👇
1/ The future of general-purpose robotics will be decided by one major question: which flavor of data scales reasoning? Every major lab represents a different bet.
Over the past 3 months, @adam_patni, @vriishin, and I read the core research papers, spoke with staff at the major labs, and mapped the talent pool. This has completely changed how we think about general-purpose robotics.
Our paper builds intuition, step-by step, across the 2025 frontier: from architectures → evals → data → industry dynamics. Each layer reveals a different bottleneck, but they all converge on one truth—data decides everything.
Our takeaways + process below👇
If you want access to our graph (sound on), comment or DM me