Ray Micaletti

CIO, Relative Sentiment Technologies | Examining the forces that move markets | Free weekly updates: | Not investment advice

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

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[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

Lots of talk about 2022 following the trajectory of 2008. Maybe so. But in fall 2008 institutions were bearish equities and bullish the dollar, whereas now they are bullish equities and bearish the dollar. Let's see what happens.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

Smart money sold gold again even though gold had moved lower. They bought silver, but not materially, given that it had fallen from 63 to 56 over the period the report covered (I would have expected more buying). Disappointing if you're a PM bull. To get that needed buying thrust from institutions to change the landscape, silver/gold probably have to take another leg down and put the fear of God in retail.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@DBclouds99 @alphaticaio COT delayed until Monday afternoon unfortunately. If anything of consequence I’ll tweet it.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

My lean is that it's close to bottoming. Positioning turns bullish this week (Friday) and that regime will be in effect until at least the end of July.

As of this Friday, Smart Money will be bearish the dollar, bullish the euro and the pound, and bullish some exotic commodities that have strongly predicted silver for 30+ years.

Given the strength of the decline in silver the past few weeks, I'd be shocked if retail didn't get less long and Smart Money less short when the new data comes out this week--making the relative positioning more bullish.

On top of that, the selling will have to dry up at some point. Positioning has been bearish since about 81 silver in mid-April, now down 20%.

Maybe we go to the 50s in silver, not far away at the rate it's been moving, but there will be a capitulation at some point.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

They don't, but historically they have done pretty well when positioning has been in the configuration it will assume next week. Maybe one more week of bearishness....

Could be wrong, but I think the violence of the move down is an indication of institutions trying to separate retail from their long positions, so they don't partake in the coming renaissance.

Also, when you get bearish on PMs, Dan.... :-)

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

Big selloff today, but the Smart Money was buying equities this week (S&P, Nasdaq, Russell) and buying the euro and pound. They even took extremely bearish positioning in assets that predict precious metals and turned those positions moderately bullish for PMs.

Let's see what happens with equities and PMs in the coming days/weeks.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@MichaelPBento @adamscochran 😂

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@TraderSmarts @MDTrades12 We are a banana republic

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@DouglasPugliese @silver207141 👀🤦🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@NickTimiraos @conorsen This is the keenest market observation since the war began.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

The tell will be what the CoT shows tomorrow. If institutions were buying and retail selling (either gold or silver) that would be a positive development. If Smart Money continues to sell dollar as they have the past three weeks, that also would be a good sign. If they weren't buying gold and silver, that would be a bad sign.

Longer-term, we are in a secular bull market in commodities and precious metals, so hard to see precious metals not going much higher. How can the U.S. fiscal situation withstand stronger dollar and positive real interest rates? It can't. Fed may ultimately have to implement yield-curve control, at which point real assets will be the place to be.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@zerohedge @DouglasPugliese

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

No, the argument is that when we launch reckless, unjustified wars of choice without congressional approval, unsupported by a strong majority of the population, and that will be ruinous for the country, shouldn't there be some checks and balances to constrain our leaders from doing unconscionable things?

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@romanhelmetguy I.e., when we do dumb shit let's make sure Americans don't feel any pain so we don't get any negative feedback on our retardery.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@DouglasPugliese 🔥

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

Energy stocks just broke out of a 3.5 year consolidation in a secular inflationary cycle that will have them as the best performing sector over its duration (they're the biggest sector winner since end of 2021 even with 3.5 years of going sideways). It would take a miracle for them to top this week unless you're referring to a normal routine overbought pullback.

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@DBclouds99 @WarrenPies @rev_cap Definitely feels stage-managed. Gold down more than stocks on war in the Middle East? Ok....

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@DBclouds99 @timpierotti1 @AahanPrometheus No opinion, @DBclouds99!

[Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech]

@SirSilverQuack @DouglasPugliese