I dont think this meta is dead but it got kind of smoked at a stage where we were hoping to see inflection upwards instead. Theres a chance you can see this be repaired in the mid term and the protocols having TGEs in late 2026 might be long enough to wait, but this went from being a 1-2b FDV sector to about half that at best bc of this event. Maybe goldfish memory persists, but I think the loss of faith has permanently impaired these.
I thought for sure Saylor would be able to keep the engine turning longer than this. I am pretty surprised it was such a short time bw now and then. I think the STRC stables took too much damage from this drawdown and was magnified by the loss of faith in the APYX team.
@thedefivillain Why do you think we didn’t sell off more than a couple bps on the tweet? I’m confused as to why the market is reacting well to him doing the opposite of what it wants. Unless some amount of ATM was used to top up cash as well as the reserve.
Characteristic early stages of a new crypto cycle.
Liquidity exiting in a tug-of-war against new liquidity entering the system.
> Retail chasing "greener pastures" in equities as structured crypto native vehicles start to gather & deploy capital (e.g. recent VC & liquid fund raises)
> Finex OGs glad to buy (ETF) outflows
> Mixed economic signals (e.g. inflation transitory? consumer health? real wage growth?) leading to mixed interpretations of future monetary policy
> Rapid, almost schizophrenic, sentiment shifts from bullish to bearish
> Small pockets of outperformance in a desert of languishing assets
> 0 => 1 innovations being overshadowed by memories of previous overvalued trash
Transition from Winter to Spring.
Quick update on HYPE:
We were initially positioned to reload sub-$17 to get ready for next cycle.
But the framework has now materially changed.
From a game theory perspective, the magnitude of the upside deviation should ultimately be mirrored by the magnitude of the downside reversion. In other words, the more reflexive and overextended the move becomes on the way up, the higher the probability of a violent overshoot to the downside.
Our base case now is that HYPE cannot just revisit the $17-20 range anymore at this stage sadly, it will ultimately overextend well below $10 before establishing a true long-term cycle low.
More importantly, the entire structure has now shifted.
The $17-20 region is no longer looking like the optimal reload zone for the next expansion phase. Instead, there’s an increasing probability that this range ultimately becomes the distribution ceiling of the next cycle itself.
We’ve seen this exact reflexive pattern play out before, EOS during the post-2018 unwind, LINK after its macro euphoric expansion. What once looked like “value accumulation” eventually became lower-high exit liquidity in the following cycle.
Very interesting.
So essentially, remove your HYPE orders around $17. That level is too obvious now after the expansion, which means you will get front-run by the market before any meaningful reversal materializes.
We will keep you posted once HYPE forms a new bottom sub $10 (probably around $7-8)
We will find the bottom together, and there should be a nice long to do, until the relief back to $17-20. Not guaranted that HYPE bounces back to $20, but highly highly likely
This sould be an easy 2-2.5x at least
And with leverage, we could probably pull a 10x
Please be patient, we will revert in a few months
For now, short only