Ricardo Smith Nieves

Consultor y analista todo terreno | Medio ambiente, tecnología, energía y temas globales | @comexi | Politólogo internacionalista por el CIDE

[Ricardo Smith Nieves @Ric_SmithN]

Mi colaboración para el dossier “Una Mirada Global” de hoy en @El_Universal_Mx.

Escribo sobre la vertiente energética de la inflación en el mundo.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

A reminder of what the US waiver revocation on Iranian oil sales means -- and doesn't mean:

Iran can still sell its oil if it finds a willing buyers (and China has been in the past, and will be again). Yes, Iran will need to discount its oil, but that would be mostly offset by the rise in oil prices triggered by the fresh hostilities. The biggest problem for Iran? It would have to use (again) non-US dollar settlement.

Put it all together, and Tehran would be able to sell the ~60 million barrels it has put on the water so far since the blockade was lifted, at relatively good prices (~$65-70 a barrel), making probably ~$4 billion.

Only a return to the US Navy blockade would stop Iran from selling its oil. But that means a new war.

[Diego Marroquín Bitar @DiegoTMEC]

Aquí les dejo los 6 escenarios para la revisión del TMEC.

⏰EEUU no busca extender de forma inmediata.

✒️El escenario más probable es una negociación prolongada que eventualmente lleva a la extensión del tratado. El resumen de @CSIS 👇

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“The United States should be stepping up, rather than stepping back, on coordinating and shaping global efforts toward AI security and safety,” argues former U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
https://t.co/IiPEtz1S8G

[Michael Reid @michaelreid52]

Peru: Keiko Fujimori has a destructive record. If she wants to be an effective president in such a polarised country she has to make a serious effort to govern inclusively. My article for @AmerQuarterly https://t.co/nIHpcpBlpx

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

What are some of China's challenges with data center buildout besides chip constraints?

1. Structural imbalance in types of data centers "一半过剩，一半短缺": oversupply of older traditional data centers, undersupply of "intelligent" data centers.

2. Poor data center construction: many companies jumped in the data center boom without real expertise. Some don't know how to dynamically reallocate cards given 5-10% card failure rate. Some data centers have compute utilization rates below 30%.

3. Network latency: the original "Eastern Data, Western Compute" initiative has had to shift given the need for low latency and geographical proximity for inference workloads. Even more important in the agentic era.

4. Hardware utilization imbalance: data centers that mix hardware have found that Nvidia GPUs have very high utilization rates while domestic chips have much lower utilization within the same data center.

5. Geographical imbalance: More advanced data centers in the east are much higher utilization rates than less advanced data centers in the west. But data centers are harder to build and power near coastal urban areas, due to land, grid constraints, higher construction costs.

[Sophia Cai @SophiaCai99]

I spent months reporting how the World Cup came to North America.

It’s a 16-year saga that ran through boozy hotel bars in Zurich, Hawaii and Aruba; four U.S. presidents; DOJ raids; and a global lobbying campaign.

Read it here in @POLITICOMag:

https://t.co/yOTTeBx1jD

[Seung Min Kim @seungminkim]

Sam Altman tells Bernie he wants to advocate together on the public having equity in AI companies. Bernie is calling for a 50% stake. Trump is having AI execs at the White House soon to talk about it.

Comes amid voter skepticism of AI and its role in society, w/ @Cappelletti7:

[Roberto Velasco Álvarez @r_velascoa]

Hay lugares de los que uno se va; a México, se vuelve. Ahí está la paradoja: quienes vienen a advertirnos de lo peligroso que es no se cansan de regresar —a conferenciar, a aplaudirse y a disfrutar de la belleza de nuestra tierra.

La soberanía de México es una continuidad de siglos: más de sesenta lenguas vivas la sostienen, y su raíz es más antigua que cualquier conquista. La libertad que tanto invocan, además, no le pertenece a ninguna corriente: es universal. Es también elegir sobre el propio cuerpo y amar a quien se quiera.

Por eso la soberanía de México no está a debate: descansa sobre una identidad que ni cinco siglos lograron borrar. Sigue, sencillamente, en pie. La puerta queda abierta —como siempre—, entre pueblos hermanos y entre iguales.

[Edgar Guerra @EdgarGuerraB]

"Raúl era una explosión de vida."

Qué bonito obituario.

Y sí. Se puede exigir justicia con firmeza sin desplazar a la persona por las circunstancias del crimen.
Se puede exigir justicia poniendo al frente la vida, la trayectoria y el legado del Dr. Raúl Pacheco-Vega. Porque antes que víctima fue profesor, investigador, colega, amigo, ser humano.
Te quiero mucho Raúl. Te quiero siempre.

[Dr Raul Pacheco-Vega @raulpacheco]

“When I begin to doubt my ability to work the word, I simply read another writer and know I have nothing to worry about. My contest is only with myself, to do it right, with power, and force, and delight, and gamble.”
― Charles Bukowski

[Alfredo Narváez @AlfredoNarvaez]

Así se despidió el profesor Pacheco-Vega. Apasionado de los temas ambientales, generoso, compartía siempre técnicas de estudio. Crítico de la austeridad hacia la ciencia, no soportaba además la falta de rigor en todo ese discurso nacionalista. Se fue muy joven. Buen viaje, profe.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Abelardo de la Espriella is the favorite, but the runoff may be closer than the market believes. You cannot simply add the right’s votes together and assume they’ll all support him—the 2022 runoff, which Petro won despite having the same first-round vote share as Cepeda (40%), is a cautionary tale.

To win this race, De la Espriella will have to do more than vilify Petro and Cepeda. He will have to convince more moderate Colombians, including many who lean conservative, that he is more than a silver-tongued lawyer who represented drug traffickers and Nicolás Maduro’s alleged bag man. He must also strike a balancing act—embracing Alvaro Uribe’s endorsement without becoming the uribista candidate, given how polarizing the former president is. That will be harder than it sounds.

Of the three remaining Latin American elections this year, including Brazil and Peru, I believe Colombia is the most important. Two vastly different candidates, each of whom would have considerable power to implement their agendas, in a country facing huge security, fiscal and economic challenges. Whoever wins this vote will define the course of Colombia for the next 10 to 15 years.

Read more REACTIONS to last night, including the great Laura Lizarazo, Ernesto Revilla and @SergioGuzmanE here:

https://t.co/ygYfRU2SLL

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

The U.N. faces a deep funding crisis as the U.S. and China withhold payments, raising bankruptcy fears and straining global governance https://t.co/okkjKSBezS

[Ricardo Smith Nieves @Ric_SmithN]

@FaridHannan @r_velascoa ¡Enhorabuena, muy merecido! !Todos los éxitos!

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

The FTO designation against two Brazilian gangs (PCC & CV) is a tool. The question now is: How will the Trump administration use it?

As pretext for military strikes in Brazilian territory, as some fear? No. PCC/CV make their fortune exporting mainly to Europe & Africa. U.S. natl security not main factor here. You'd see strikes in Mexico or Colombia first.

Rather, the timing, within 24 hours of visit to State Dept by Bolsonaro's two sons, suggests main driver is politics -- to pressure Lula and help Flávio prior to October election.

Is the mere designation "humiliating" enough? It might be. But Trump admin could escalate by targeting individuals & orgs associated with ruling party or members of Supreme Court.

Consider the recent indictment of Mexican Governor Ruben Rocha Moya, of Sheinbaum's party, as sign of how this admin willing to use the law for both security & political purposes. Conversely, the reported recent directive to DOJ not to pursue evidence against Delcy Rodriguez is a sign of how pressure can be turned on & off.

For Trump admin, everything is leverage. Natl security and ideological allies also important. But on Brazil, as many other topics, there are different power centers competing for Trump's ear -- as evidenced by surprisingly positive Lula visit just 2 weeks ago.

What happens next? As usual in today's Washington, only one man knows for sure

[Amb Antonio Garza @aogarza]

What’s Behind the EU-Mexico Trade Deal? With #USMCA on ice, #Mexico City is looking across the Atlantic for new partners. | @ForeignPolicy https://t.co/ccduAHrpMI

[Carlos Ramírez F. @CarlosRamirezF]

La productividad laboral de 🇺🇸 y de 🇲🇽 del 2018 al 2026.

Mientras en EUA se vive un boom de productividad (q apenas comienza), en 🇲🇽 retrocede.

Desde 2018 Productividad
🇺🇸 +17.8%
🇲🇽-3.0%

De ahí xq el PIB de 🇺🇸 ha crecido 13pp más q 🇲🇽 en el mismo periodo.

[Sophia Cai @SophiaCai99]

Departures coming soon from the White House cyber office that’s involved in crafting the AI executive order.

This may not be the only one, I’m told.

[Senator Jacky Rosen @SenJackyRosen]

Cartels in Mexico are profiting off of stolen fuel and crude oil, enabling them to sustain their illegal operations on both sides of the border.

I’m introducing a bipartisan bill with @JohnCornyn to clamp down on this illegal practice, and I’ll continue to work across party lines to protect American families.

[Barbara Moens @BMoens]

Scoop: The EU is preparing a push to loosen its dependence on US tech by backing European alternatives in cloud to AI.

A European tech sovereignty strategy seen by the FT says the bloc must “reclaim its place in the global race for geoeconomics power.”

https://t.co/DjhmJ7I2It