Road Out Of Serfdom

Posting my own thoughts. Not financial advice.

Top ten longs:
APP
MELI
SE
NVDA
AVGO
TTWO
RBRK
NU
TMDX
FICO

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@hey_itsmyturn Israel already took out their gorillas. They are down to their chimpanzees now.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@pequityresearch Sounds like good news for $AAOI

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@mathlonning If they can't clearly communicate "once our trials are over at beginning of next year our operating margins will go back over 20% on much higher revenues operating in a larger TAM" then they should just declare bankruptcy.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

You don't have to attempt to justify a company projected to grow their top line over 50% and bottom line over 70% trading down to 18 forward. As an $APP shareholder that is similarly getting punked despite metrics that are exponentially better than the market rate, it's okay to say the level of pessimism displayed by the Street is simply misguided. These companies were not trading at 60 forward or whatever to demand this level of slaughter.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@SixSigmaCapital These stocks were always going to meet resistance at their 20 day sma. Horizontal base building would be very healthy.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@StockMarketNerd $RDDT is now cheaper than $DUOL on a forward NTM/EPS basis despite growing top line >3 times faster this year and no decline in bottom line like Duolingo

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

$AAOI $NBIS $BE $MU

My trading account is ripping today from the adds I made Monday-Wednesday. If you're like me, I recommend watching the price as they approach their respective declining 20-day sma's to monitor how they react at that juncture. Some horizontal base building wouldn't be terrible for true diehard longs as well.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@cantonmeow Because S and P and RSP held up

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@RyanDetrick The bifurcation in the markets since last Halloween continue. We used to all rally together but not anymore.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@negligible_cap White collar mugging.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@FirstSquawk This level of naked corruption is absurd.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

There is your first 20 within two months lol

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@realroseceline I think $MA can CAGR 20% from here actually assuming valuation increase from 4 to 3% FCF yield.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@HanOoi09193564 @firstadopter How much cash on hand will they have by the middle of 2028? Even if operating income contracts hard in 2029, the big memory makers could retire what, a third of their floats if they wanted to?

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

$QQQ

According to Koyfin:

Date|NTM EPS:

October 14 2022|20.1
October 26 2023|22.6
August 5 2024|24.7
April 8 2025|21.6
March 30 2026|21.3
July 29 2026|21.6

Date|NTM EV/EBITDA

October 14 2022|12.9
October 26 2023|14.8
August 5 2024|16.5
April 8 2025|14.4
March 30 2026|14.5
July 29 2026|14.9

This contraction already rivals every correction/bear market of the last five years. I am highly skeptical of people throwing out drastically lower price targets. None of the major stocks within this index have guided earnings that are materially lower entering next year compared to the present.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

$QQQ At 22 NTM P/E the index is now cheaper than it was at the October 2023 low, and only ~2-3% higher than the 2025 and 2026 lows. Keep in mind all the large companies reporting in the upcoming weeks will drag this valuation even lower unless price begins to rally.

Yes, several of the largest companies in the index are now FCF negative due to CapEx but that cash flow is being sent into other large companies also within the index.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@MikeZaccardi Going to generate a fifth of their present enterprise value in free cash flow next five quarters.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@cantonmeow Insane that we are doing this again just four months after we did it in March.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@GHadjia Amazing cannibal stock.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

Everyone knows AI capex companies will have huge 2027 relative to 2026. So what beneficiaries of the AI capex boom will still be growing in 2029 over 2028? Energy and neoclouds probably. Memory? Not sure. Photonics? I think so. All semiconductors? Probably not. Some? Definitely. I think the alpha moving forward will come from identifying which companies have the most durable growth profiles.

[Road Out Of Serfdom @RoadOutOfSerfdm]

@_j__f @TradingDeskTy TTM means nothing