Roger Hirst

Macro analyst
Ex-derivatives & equity L/S HF sales. Built leading Delta-1 desk for bespoke basket flow trading.

@TheLykeionChannel
@thelykeion

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

@jessefelder @RogerHirst3 just put out a great piece on gold, covering the EM buying spree as well

https://t.co/Y2LcoM0qql

[Bill Hine @billhine]

"Russian efforts to block or hold at risk French access to uranium in Niger is a direct corollary of the 'energy blackmail' that Russia held over Europe with oil and gas...Russia does not want Europe to have a hugely diversified energy portfolio."

[Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc]

Nov 9th I made the call “USD Has Likely Peaked” with @RogerHirst3 as reason for EOY 2023/ 2024 rally in equities and start of yen carry trade unwind.

👉 https://t.co/MIMqxXasQ1

Slowly then quickly.

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

"Japan has only had three rate hiking cycles since 1989 and all three cycles were rising toward the onset of three of the last four US recessions." - @RogerHirst3

New macro note coming out tomorrow on the BoJs policy meetings which kick off this week.

https://t.co/vkhbY9UHKq

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

We called this in December.

Apollo now on board.

@RogerHirst3

https://t.co/tdiBuARJk4

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

We wrote this in December and it's becoming more relevant with every market pump and CPI 'surprise'

"What if the Fed Doesn't Cut Rates in 2024?"

@RogerHirst3

https://t.co/tdiBuARJk4

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

"When Can Investors Return to China?"

Our latest from @RogerHirst3 with his thoughts on China, and where we go from here.

@mnicoletos thoughts included in this piece as well

https://t.co/ggTmvVHlYJ

[Kunal @balanikunal]

@thelykeion @RogerHirst3 @mnicoletos Just bought subscription to Lykeion. I love the content. The latest publication about Indonesia was really impressive. It’s really surprising most of this not talked by any media outlets. Keep up the good work.

[Roger Hirst @RogerHirst3]

My latest thoughts here 👇

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

"When Can Investors Return to China?"

Our latest from @RogerHirst3 with his thoughts on China, and where we go from here.

@mnicoletos thoughts included in this piece as well

https://t.co/ggTmvVHlYJ

[Tyler Neville @Tyler_Neville_]

It’s been a while!

Enjoyed chatting with an old friend @RogerHirst3

Is active management about to make a comeback?

[Roger Hirst @RogerHirst3]

Check out my latest interview with @Tyler_Neville_

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

Our latest Ides of Macro, with @RogerHirst3 is now live, with special guest, our old mate, @Tyler_Neville_

-The Impact of Cash & Productivity Gains
-Could the Fed Surprise?
-Hedging Geopolitical Risk
-Should Investors Pick Up Volatility Risk?

https://t.co/THrkbVhCPC

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

Our latest Geopolitics of Commodities podcast is now live, w/ guest Arjun Murti of @SuperSpiked

The messy energy transition is underway, and it has real geopolitical consequences that will affect us all

Enjoy this wildly educational & entertaining pod

https://t.co/A94rCdseYk

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

@TheKingCourt @SantiagoAuFund @mnicoletos @chigrl We think so...

We published this interview with @RogerHirst3 and @mnicoletos a couple weeks back all about how Michael thinks about a potential USD breakout

https://t.co/0mc3JpXROH

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

"Qatar Pauses LNG Shipments via Red Sea After US-led Airstrikes" - Bloomberg

We've been covering the Geopolitical knock-on effects of this situation for our paid members and given its severity (and it is a severe situation), we wanted to offer a month free of our paywall so anyone can read

Use this link to sign up: https://t.co/0Uv24oiGE8

Read these two pieces:

Houthi Attacks on International Shipping: https://t.co/L8dKoRD5Ao

Geopolitical Risks to the European Gas and LNG Market: https://t.co/gqHN9tmtRJ

Also, check these guys out as well for more high-quality energy & geopolitical risk content:

@anasalhajji has also been doing a great job covering the O&G space, so make sure to give him a follow on his substack

@UrbanKaoboy we did a podcast with Mike a few weeks back and he and Scott Smitson hit on all of Mike's takes on energy fundamentals and the 'Kaos' surrounding the growing Geopolitical machinations around the energy markets

@SuperSpiked Arjun writes a substack called "Super Spiked" all about the energy transition and why it is going to be very messy. Arjun views the transition through the lens of an equity research analyst, which he was for 30 years as a Partner at Goldman

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

TAIWAN ELECTION: Voters give ruling party (NOT reunification party) a 3rd presidential term

We wrote this piece last year and the intricacies of this Geopolitical focal point are more relevant today than ever before

"A Geopolitical Primer of Taiwan"

https://t.co/ZxzikQik1F

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

@KobeissiLetter Just going to leave this here…

“What if the Fed doesn’t cut rates in 2024?”

@RogerHirst3

https://t.co/EsDU3PZAC7

[Roger Hirst @RogerHirst3]

@thelykeion

[New Low Observer @NewLowObserver]

Since 1988, and before Japan & US QE, the trajectory for global monetary/fiscal policy was well known.

Thanks to @RogerHirst3

[Roger Hirst @RogerHirst3]

My latest thinking here:
👇

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

What if the Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates in 2024?

"In 2024, investors should expect a trading environment rather than an investing environment until the current stop-start recession narrative is conclusively resolved." - @RogerHirst3

New Research out now:

https://t.co/EsDU3PZAC7

[Tim Purcell @HighLineAdv]

We had the absolute please of having @mnicoletos come on the pod to discuss a whole host of macro topics, including his bullish stance on the #USD
@RogerHirst3

https://t.co/0mc3JpYpEf

[Roger Hirst @RogerHirst3]

Thanks for joining me @mnicoletos!

[Michael Nicoletos @mnicoletos]

Thrilled to share my recent conversation with @RogerHirst3 on @thelykeion podcast, where we discussed my perspective and reasons for my structural bullishness on the #US #Dollar.

Huge thanks to The Lykeion team and Roger for a fantastic discussion!

https://t.co/FOO5eDxFeZ