Sam Hananel

Media at Center for American Progress; ex-AP reporter; I like to ride on two wheels.

[Rob Neyer @robneyer]

The New Yorker was on this nine (!) years ago. Nobody cared.

[Alex Roarty @Alex_Roarty]

BUTTE, MONTANA — Pete Buttigieg is about 30 minutes from taking the stage here, to formally endorse a plan that would restrict corporations’ ability to spend on elections in the state.

The line to get in wrapped around the block (and doubled back) before the doors even opened.

[Maxim Tucker @MaxRTucker]

In Kyiv for @thetimes, I spoke to a Russian drone operator who walked six miles through a battlefield to defect to Ukraine.
Not just any soldier — a member of Russia’s elite Rubicon drone unit. For weeks, he had been secretly talking to Ukrainian intelligence. 🧵 1/

[Sam Hananel @SamHananel]

Montana and Hawaii are working to end the impact of Citizens United by redefining corporate power: https://t.co/s2vO42jYxp

[Michael Sozan @michaelsozan]

🚨 🚨
Historic day in fight against corporate $ corrupting elections post-Citizens United.
Hawaii legislature became 1st to pass “corp. power reset” plan designed by my @amprog colleague @thmoore! @GovJoshGreenMD must sign.
Statement from @neeratanden:
https://t.co/MqilWmVps1

[Courthouse News @CourthouseNews]

Hawaii Legislature passes first-in-nation bill targeting Citizens United ruling @JeremyYurow
https://t.co/tAB5ML9lgc

[Tim Miller @Timodc]

Drawing a map that gives New Orleans no representation via executive order. A disgraceful assault on democracy and hard earned civil rights in the south:.

[Sam Hananel @SamHananel]

@StephArmour1 I'm so sorry for your loss.

[Ron Kampeas @kampeas]

It shouldn’t amaze me but it does that the team that catastrophically missed Oct 7 could walk into the SitRoom still utterly confident about how a major war would unfold.

[Mike Young @micyoung75]

This is the part that keeps getting buried under the raw numbers.

Hegseth spent months pressuring Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to remove four decorated colonels from the one-star promotion list. Two Black men. Two women. Driscoll refused, because their records demanded it. So Hegseth pulled their names himself… which legal experts say he likely had no authority to do. The defense secretary is supposed to approve or reject the entire list, precisely to prevent this kind of targeted discrimination.

Then Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George - the Army’s top officer - asked to meet with Hegseth to discuss the blocked promotions. Hegseth refused to meet. Refused to discuss his decisions at all.

Then he fired George. Whose term wasn’t supposed to end until September 2027.

Nine U.S. officials across all four branches confirmed the NBC reporting. “There is not a single service that has been immune,” one said. The officers’ attributes being cited for removal include past support for Covid vaccine mandates… and association with Mark Milley.

The Pentagon’s response to every outlet that asked: “fake news.”

They didn’t dispute a single name.

[Neera Tanden🌻 @neeratanden]

What happens in Hungary should be a lesson for all of us about what an authoritarian leader, drunk on power. will do to stay in power. And in our country, they've already tried insurrection.

[Sam Hananel @SamHananel]

Great summary of CAP's plan to neuter Citizens United and limit corporate money in politics.

[Robert Reich @RBReich]

Montana — yes, deep red Montana — has a plan to effectively neuter Citizens United.

No Supreme Court ruling or constitutional amendment needed.

Here's how it works.

[Ron Kampeas @kampeas]

Israel and the pro-Israel lobby did not push Bush II into the Iraq War. The reverse was true, as it was for other interests, as I wrote in 2007. Yet the perverse narrative — inverting how govt power works - is applied only to Jews, not say to the media. 1/…

[Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien]

Let me run you through the last few
days.
1) Trump insults Zelensky and the WH says it was a mistake to help Ukraine.
2) the USA begs Ukraine for help fighting Iranian drones.
3) Ukraine starts helping the US.
4) Reports come out that Putin is giving Iran intelligence to help attack Americans
5) The WH says that is fine.

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

Two months after Trump removed Maduro from power in Venezuela, dictatorship there remains in place.

I hope Iran will be different. I fear it won’t.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Dilemma for Gulf policymakers right now:

The war has already had serious costs (lives lost, economic/reputational damage). If it continues for 4-5 weeks costs could mount significantly: hits to critical infrastructure, energy-price shocks

But if it ends now, this is the situation you're left with:

- a wounded and angry Iranian regime will probably endure

- forget about detente with that regime. You tried that for several years and pushed for diplomacy pre-war, only to be attacked. Relations will be hostile

- the regime will learn that lashing out at Gulf states is an effective way to compel a change in American behavior. If and when another breaks out, Iran will hit you even harder

Neither is a good choice: a lengthy and increasingly painful war, or a prolonged hostage situation with your neighbor across the Gulf

[Alex Cole @acnewsitics]

Obama: Got a nuke deal with Iran without firing a shot.

Trump: Tears up the deal, can't negotiate a new deal himself, starts a war, and American servicemen die.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Trump is basically calling up every journalist in his phone to workshop different timelines and goals for his war. In the past two days:

@washingtonpost: the aim is "freedom for the people" of Iran

@axios: maybe we can "end it in two or three days" with a deal

@nytimes: might be "four to five weeks", I have "three very good choices" who might take control in Iran

@abc: actually, nevermind, we killed those choices

He doesn't sound convinced by any of it. He's throwing spaghetti at the wall. Ultimately I suspect he just wants to say he "solved" a problem that has vexed every American president since Jimmy Carter.

But there's no clear idea what that looks like and no plan for how to get there. And there are plenty of possible scenarios in which Trump declares victory and leaves the region with an absolute mess

[Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien]

This might start as the most unpopular US military intervention in American history.

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

First Day: Iran's Retaliation Larger Than Expected, but Israel Maintains Firepower

The US, lacking the range for carrier-based air strikes, limited itself to launching Tomahawk missiles.

Based on just two different videos, both showing more than 20 Tomahawks launched, I estimate the US expended 10–15% of its Tomahawk inventory on the first day, hitting dozens of targets in Iran.

The Israeli attacks were even more aggressive, with two major waves on the first day striking over 200 targets on Iranian territory.

However, all strikes were launched from Iraqi airspace, indicating some continued Israeli caution regarding Iran's air defenses.

Iran is seeking to eliminate the American AN/TPY-2 radars, but these structures are highly mobile, with US crews able to relocate more than once a day. To locate them, Iran would need Chinese assistance and considerable agility.

Both Israel and the US heavily invested in drone operations for terrain monitoring to hunt for Iranian missile launchers, at least two large-scale launchers were identified and destroyed.

There are still no reports of naval combat, which also suggests that Iran's navy (with over 30 warships) remains largely intact, as does the entire US fleet, which is staying well back in the Arabian Sea.

On this first day, several strikes targeted mountain base exits to obstruct and delay the movement of Iranian launchers. Iranian radars were also hit, though in limited numbers. Iran has improved its guerrilla tactics for radars, which may be helping.

Israel likely also worked to obstruct known silo coordinates.

I see Israel repeating tactics from the last 12-day war.

On the Iranian side, the focus was on US bases in Gulf countries. At least 6–8 bases are under heavy bombardment, what I calculate as damage already in the billions of dollars, given that the Qatar base alone cost $10 billion.

Air defenses at these bases were largely exhausted on the first day, with few Patriot batteries still operational and showing low efficiency, as some footage demonstrates.

Iran also destroyed an AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar and a radome in Bahrain, which probably housed a high-altitude radar or SATCOM system, both high-value assets.

Overnight, Iran is expected to maintain the missile pace, focusing on Israel and additional US bases.

I believe Iran will launch around 100 long-range missiles during this period.

This is a protracted conflict. On the first day, the Strait of Hormuz was already closed, as we had predicted here, and it has strong potential to drag in other Gulf countries.

On this first day, everything has unfolded as we anticipated over the last 15 days.