Sam Freedman

Spare account for @samfr in case it gets hacked again.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

New election briefing just out

A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time.

(£/free trial)

https://t.co/WKUqXtcO3B

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

Back on the other account again. Join me there at @samfr....

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

I mean about what it would mean for the make up of the Tory party, not whether it will happen.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

Going to write a proper piece on this in a few weeks but fwiw I don't think this is true (about the 75 MPs).

[Kitty Donaldson @kitty_donaldson]

The Tory Party is fighting an election on the surface and a submarine battle for its future direction if, as expected, they lose on July 4.

“The party lurches to the right if we hit the magic number of 75 MPs”

My latest column for @theipaper

https://t.co/qoJx1Oaddf

[Tim (still totally unremarkable) @forwardnotback]

This, is as always, good from @Samfr, we don’t always agree on stuff, but on the tory southern discomfort we do
fwiw I think, see my thread on Kent seats, he is still slightly behind on a couple of seats but read his substack and make your own mind up

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

@rcolvile Wonder if they're sending ones with the Tories ahead (2019 result) to Labour voters.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

@dan_grey Because things like creativity and critical thinking are domain specific attributes not generic skills. You can be a brilliant writer and terrible painter or a brilliant scientist who can't understand politics at all.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

How far do we have to get through the 21st century before the "21st century skills" guff stops? (This is from the Lib Dem manifesto).

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

@EdConwaySky Just left out the decimal place last time...

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

@Chelseachemist1 That was the opening to my post today - there just seems an inability to adjust to what's unfolding.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

Without their house adjustments this would be:

Labour 43%
Con 22%
Reform 14%
LD 10%
Green 5%

Similar to average.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

JLP show same movement to Reform as others. This is the first fully post D-Day poll and doesn't show too big a drop for the Tories (though is the methodology that helps them most and they're on 24%).

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

JLP show same movement to Reform as others. This is the first fully post D-Day poll and doesn't show too big a drop for the Tories (though is the methodology that helps them most and they're on 24%).

[JL Partners @JLPartnersPolls]

NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, 7th-9th June

*Labour lead at 17 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 41% (-2)
CON: 24% (-2)
REF: 15% (+3)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 5% (+2)

Tables: https://t.co/BozWy47UqJ

[Kenny from the Block @Kennyf1283]

Sam's Newsletter is good value normally. However, the bumper content during this election
means the bang for your buck is so ludicrous, they're likely to be critiqued by the IFS.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Apropos of nothing, which pollsters initially prompt for Reform UK?

Summary of how many parties are included in each pollster's initial voting intention prompt below.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

Sunak may have left the D-Day event early but at least he thinks the right side won.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: A ReformUK candidate has claimed the UK should have ‘taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality’ instead of fighting the Nazis

[@bbclaurak]

[Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot]

Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today

Conservative majority 21,127

It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

@gj4man Lol - only if you have time of course...

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

New election briefing just out

A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time.

(£/free trial)

https://t.co/WKUqXtcO3B

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

@gj4man Ooh this is great - yes please!

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

Have they just not noticed Scotland did this and it didn't work? Or do they not care?

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

Leaving the EU in the first place didn't have high salience for the general public. It was kept alive as an issue by a deeply committed group of campaigners with a decent base in Parliament.

[Sam Freedman @Samfrspare]

Anyway who thinks Brexit is just going to disappear as an issue after the election isn't paying attention.

It may not have high salience any more for the general public but it does for people who are engaged in politics.

[Henry Riley @HenryRiley1]

NEW

Liberal Democrat manifesto pledges to take the UK back into the EU single market

"these measures will help to restore the British economy... and are also essential steps on the road to EU membership, which remains our longer-term objective"

@LBC