ScroogeRealEstate

Public/Private RE investor

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@JeffBeckMadDog Average industry loan claims ~40% LTV. But if you’re arguing that’s based off an inflated EV and actual LTV closer to ~60% LTV I can agree with that. Might want to add a line above the first one showing UW that $60 loan against a reported $150 EV

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@iBladesi @qorka Any thoughts on who’s trying to get out?

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@iBladesi BV ~$12 with a quarter of the value in the REO. Trading way too tight around a ~10% discount. Chunk of REO values in hotels as well. Will puke after the July divy of $3.75 and that quarter of REO BV jumps to ~40%

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@RealAssetsValue @JeffBeckMadDog @Mr_Neutral_Man @DavidBrail @robbiehendricks L&B dumped their entire $CSR stake last quarter. Was their larger holding at 9%+ of port

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@yenoms @nbeachny Respect the buyback as well but I just need to see the BV-bleed stabilize. Not a huge fans of the EU expansion either. Maybe we should stabilize the ~13% of book at risk and the ~20% of net equity valued trapped in REOs before the international expansion?

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@codytrades Also they’re going to get yield on their cash so the dividend is not as optically bad as it looks

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@yenoms Some very quick AI numbers on NAV. Taxes should be minimal

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@DonovanBuilds Share the numbers? Hit or miss, these look fantastic. Nicely done

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@EllliotttB On the multi side, it’s a when question. Could get pushed again, but demand will catch up with supply

Software will have winners and losers. Tougher question, higher r/r

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@thepupil11 Are you taking the hit or going to try and defer again?

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@iBladesi @yenoms At that point, how much higher can rates really go, and can I spend more time on active ideas knowing the fixed-income side is buttoned up?

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@iBladesi @yenoms Appreciate the other ideas. How worried are you about the admin/macro and longer-term rates? When I see AA munis around ~5% ten years out (~8% taxable-equivalent), I have a hard time not just calling it a day.

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@iBladesi @yenoms A. Fixed pref with similar yield without reset or call asymmetry, although this may come with lower credit quality?

B. If in a taxable account, munis (superior credit) but longer duration exposure?

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@iBladesi @yenoms Got it. Really helpful. And with the lower floors these probably won’t get called in a moderately lower-rate environment.

So, correct me if I’m wrong, but better options could include:

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@Mr_Neutral_Man -$DOC alongside $ARE / life science issues
-$NSA probably getting hit hardest on SS rotating out of favor re excess supply (but all cheap)
-$SAFE still out of favor re higher for longer narrative

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@yenoms $SOND - lol
$INVH - actual suggestion

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@patcarino Are you issue a 1099 after paying cash? If not, aren’t you losing more money excluding the expense from your costs than saving on the lower price?

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@yenoms BV with a floor at .6

[ScroogeRealEstate @ScroogeRE]

@RecoveryTrade Holding in CAD? Any thoughts on additional FX risk/reward?