Sean Peche

Portfolio Manager of Ranmore Global Equity Fund

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

No surprise - you can’t have 0.5% stamp duty with huge focus on transaction costs and not expect investors to trade elsewhere if they can @TheFCA

Take note @RachelReevesMP @Keir_Starmer @UKLabour

https://t.co/lqdQwTVH2s Flutter to quit London in latest blow to UK market

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

Even toddlers experience the joy of giving.

Evidence: When kids under 2 share a snack with a puppet, they exude enthusiasm. They actually smile bigger and laugh more after giving a treat than getting one for themselves.

Kindness is a fundamental source of happiness.

[Gianl1974 @Gianl1974]

A message to all sane Republicans:

He pardoned 1,600 violent criminals.
You said nothing.

He bulldozed the East Wing.
You said nothing.

He interfered with the release of the Epstein files. You said nothing.

He took over the Kennedy Center and renamed it after himself. You said nothing.

He accepted a $400 million airplane as a personal gift. You said nothing.

He threatened Canada, Cuba, Denmark, Greenland, Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil. You said nothing.

He tariffed just about everyone but Russia, causing inflation and instability worldwide. You said nothing.

He attacked a nation during mediated negotiations. You said nothing.

His ill-conceived war killed 175 children on day one. You said nothing.

He alienated and insulted our allies. You said nothing.

His ICE Army terrorized and murdered U.S. citizens. You said nothing.

He committed murder on the high seas. You said nothing.

He co-opted the Justice Department and directed it to prosecute his political enemies. You said nothing.

It’s time to start talking.

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

@OscarChalupsky @Garmin Well done, Oscar, you’re an inspiration 👊

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

So clever

[Philip Proudfoot @PhilipProudfoot]

Incredible talent

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

@AukeHoekstra Disgusting criminals, the pair of them

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

@MerrynSW It’s astounding that he doesn’t understand the simple difference between income tax and a tax on assets. How on earth did he gather such a following ? And his constant and aggressive interrupting is unappealing. Full marks to the other chap for keeping his cool.

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Paul Tudor Jones just said something the market really doesn't want to hear.

"We're clearly so leveraged in equities in this country. We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929, we were at 65%. In 1987, about 85%. In 2000, we got to 170%. And now we're at 252."

Every number he listed, 1929, 1987, 2000 ended the same way.

"If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every ten years. That would be a 30 to 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 89% of GDP. The reverse wealth effect, oh my gosh. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains; they go to zero."

This isn't a perma bear making noise but Paul Tudor Jones called the 1987 crash before it happened and made 200% that year.

When he talks about mean reversion, he's speaking from a track record that almost nobody in finance can match and then he said this:

"If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows."

He's right, every major study on long-term equity returns shows that starting valuation is the single most predictive variable for 10-year forward performance.

At a P/E of 22, history doesn't give you a great answer.

"The real problem is, if you look at private equity in 2007 and 2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16%. Real estate's gone up. Infrastructure bets have gone up. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008."

In 2008, the crisis was bad because the system was leveraged.

Today the system is leveraged and illiquid, pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds can't hit a sell button on private equity.

They can't exit real estate in a week, when forced deleveraging starts in a system this illiquid, the exit doors are half the size they were last time.

Jones didn't say a crash is coming tomorrow.

He said the conditions that produce the worst outcomes in financial history are more present right now than at any prior peak he's seen in 50 years of trading.

He said buying the S&P at these levels and expecting the same returns as the past 100 years is math that doesn't work because those 100-year averages include decades when stocks were priced at 6 or 7 times earnings, not 22.

"Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high, and it's going to be really hard to make money from here."

[Farrukh @implausibleblog]

Comedians on the BBC's Have I Got News For You

Spend 4 minutes mocking President Trump

For posting an image of himself as Jesus

#HIGNFY

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

@Mandyngqu Sorry for you and your sons’s loss, Mandy. Help is universal so I hope there are some useful resources on this U.K. website for you https://t.co/DMDJ48tm8I

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

@ndlovu_anele @Mandyngqu Hi Anele, What’s the name of the hospice? Please ask them to get on the Helpmore Trust Index https://t.co/4KkYXcm9ts

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

So clever and so true

[Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE now on Blue Sky @sanambna]

The lyrics 👏

[Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @AOC]

This statement changes nothing.

The President has threatened a genocide against the Iranian people, and is continuing to leverage that threat.

He has launched a massive war of enormous risk and of catastrophic consequence without reason, rationale, nor Congressional authorization - which is as clear a violation of the Constitution as any. Each day this goes on, the risk and criminality of these actions escalate for our nation and the world.

Moreover, this administration’s self enrichment, insider trading, and pure corruption off this chaos - from crypto currencies to predictive trading markets to bribe “settlements” - has placed the Trump administration’s pursuit of personal wealth squarely against the wellbeing of our nation and its people.

All of these incidents, and plenty more, have clearly driven our country past the threshold for impeachment or invocation of the 25th amendment.

We cannot risk the world nor the wellbeing of our nation any longer. None of these considerations should be partisan, but shared in good faith by Americans of all backgrounds who care for the safety and stability of the United States.

Whether by his Cabinet or Congress, the President must be removed from office. We are playing with the brink.

[Siddharth @DearthOfSid]

No country in the world needs a regime change as much as the United States does.

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

What a role model!

[Alvin Foo @alvinfoo]

Sadio Mane, a Senegalese soccer star, earns approximately $10.2 million annually. He gave the world a rude awakenng after some fans were flabbergasted when they saw him carrying a cracked iPhone 11. His response was awesome:

"Why would I want ten Ferraris, 20 diamond watches, and two jet planes? I starved, I worked in the fields, played brefoot, and I didn't go to school. Now I can help people. I prefer to build schools and give poor people food or clothing. I have built schools and a stadium, provide clothes, shoes, and food for people in extreme poverty. In addition, I give 70 euros per month to all people from a very poor Senegalese region in order to contribute to their family economy. I do not need to display luxury cars, luxury homes, trips, and even planes. I prefer that my people receive some of what life has given me.

[Alvin Foo @alvinfoo]

Sadio Mane, a Senegalese soccer star, earns approximately $10.2 million annually. He gave the world a rude awakenng after some fans were flabbergasted when they saw him carrying a cracked iPhone 11. His response was awesome:

"Why would I want ten Ferraris, 20 diamond watches, and two jet planes? I starved, I worked in the fields, played brefoot, and I didn't go to school. Now I can help people. I prefer to build schools and give poor people food or clothing. I have built schools and a stadium, provide clothes, shoes, and food for people in extreme poverty. In addition, I give 70 euros per month to all people from a very poor Senegalese region in order to contribute to their family economy. I do not need to display luxury cars, luxury homes, trips, and even planes. I prefer that my people receive some of what life has given me.

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

@RnaudBertrand @CAPITALSIGMAza What a really disgusting individual @realDonaldTrump is

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

Peter Lynch: "I went down more than the market everytime! I just don't worry about it"

[Sean Peche @SeanPeche]

The invert of Warren Buffett’s quote “It's better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you'll drift in that direction."

And explains why Trump is such a loser

[Acyn @Acyn]

Trump: I hang out with losers because it makes be feel better. I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

For years they told you stock picking was dead.

"Just buy the index. Don't bother with research. The passive bid will carry you."

I'm here to tell you that era is OVER. And the people who don't adjust are going to pay for it.

The S&P 500 just broke below its 200 day moving average for the first time in 214 sessions. It's on pace for its fourth consecutive losing week.

The Mag 7 which carried the entire market for 3 years are getting dismantled.

Microsoft down 18% year to date. Amazon down 10%. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF down 6% while the equal-weight S&P is outperforming.

The rotation I've been calling for is here. R is for Rotation, not Recession.

But here's what most people don't understand about passive investing, and why this unwind could be SAVAGE:

The machine that drove prices up without caring about fundamentals is going to drive them down the same way. There's been no real price discovery in large-cap US equities for years.

Money flowed in because money was flowing in. That's NOT investing.

I saw the exact same dynamic in Japan in the 1980s. I ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund during that bubble.

The Japanese market got to two-thirds of the entire non US equity index. Banks traded at 100x earnings, 10x book.

The float was so tight you couldn't buy or sell ANYTHING in size without moving the market 20%.

Jeremy Grantham, John Templeton - all the greats were screaming about it.

They were early. But once the worm turned, it was fast. And the beautiful part was you didn't need to be a genius. You just had to avoid Japan and index everything else. Hit them where they ain't.

That's where we are with US mega-cap tech right now.

You don't need to make complicated bets. Just stop being concentrated in the same 7 stocks that everyone else owns.

Step 1: switch your cap-weighted S&P into the equal-weight RSP. Overnight you cut your Mag 7 exposure from 35% to 0.2% per name. The equal weight has been winning all year. I think that continues.

Step 2: look overseas. International markets have been outperforming the US in 2026. European equities, Japanese stocks, emerging markets - all cheaper, all under-owned, all benefiting from the capital rotation out of US tech.

Step 3: get into real assets. Gold. Energy. Commodities. These are the sectors that perform when inflation is the dominant risk, which it is. Oil at $96 with a war in the Persian Gulf isn't going back to $50 regardless of what any politician promises.

And step 4: if you have the stomach for it, there's a portfolio of overvalued garbage out there that's going to get cut in half. Companies with no earnings, no moat, and no reason to exist at current prices. The short side hasn't been this attractive since 2000.

After years of the index crushing active managers, the tables have TURNED.

Dispersion is widening. Fundamentals are starting to matter again.

Stock picking isn't dead.

IT WAS JUST SLEEPING