Sehaj

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

+40% for software

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

It’s literally day 3 of AI Losers are the new Asbestos. We’re like 2 years from any of this shit bottoming.

If you’re buying for anything beyond an oversold bounce, go and look at the asbestos charts from 20 years ago. Hardly any company older than 1990 was immune…

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@3rdFloorCapital I think the generalist flow only mattered to the upside. Weak bidding was priced in so when new incremental buyers came in, shorts were washed out. I think risk controls are stopping any new large bearish positions that could help it mean revert down from here

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

$SPRT $CAPR The more hate you get the better the outcome

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

Long $SRPT short $CAPR

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

So the $DXYZ NAV comes out to around $50/sh if you mark Ant at this valuation and SpaceX at 1T. If you mark SpaceX at today’s valuation of 1.7T it comes out to around $58/sh

December 40/60 spread costs $3.20, closer to $4 if you want decent size. 5x

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

Interesting to see Anthropic open at $1.96T market cap.

Rumors are roughly around $2T, expect to see this deviate quite a bit as we get closer to IPO.

Only place in the world to speculate on Anthropic today, all on @HyperliquidX with markets operated by @entropyIO

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@Kennydoesbio You were missed

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@threadanddoc This makes the netflix doc good, let them cook

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@zipjet @CloisterRes Yes, that is the rate he uses on value stocks with monopolies that don’t have expirations. It’s called the ‘risk-free’ rate for a reason. Does Liquidia equity have the same safety as US gov credit?

Higher earnings estimates go in cash flow, not the most sensitive lever

[Mojo @MrMojoRisinX]

Time to revisit a pressure cooker for-sale situation:

Feel free to search my tweets under ABVX, but updating my thoughts here (see below: MF vs HF violence, L/S embedded basis risk, Mark Walter, related deals, etc):

First off, There is a lot of volatility in the biotech/pharma space right now...and earlier this summer everyone wanted to blame the hedge funds re "a pod is blowing up" and it was actually mutual funds and long only "investors" de-risking ehem panicking...see here: https://t.co/z6j3rhR29p

Now we have very large unwinds happening at hedge funds / pods, who are short MRNA and other crowded high short interest names and long event-driven situations like ABVX. There is a lot embedded basis risk in these long/short books especially during an illiquid summer backdrop and the reflexivity is violent.

In addition, I don't think I have seen anyone write this yet, but there is a drag on ABVX via Mark Walter. Yes, Mark Walter who just sold the Lakers, owns the LA Dodgers, has interests in various ongoing deals including BHF and CCO...and likely a forced seller of other various assets in/out of sports franchises...welp, Guggenheim Securities was part of the ABVX summer capital raise as an underwriter (13F says 25k, but believe shares held elsewhere likely multiples of this disclosure and there were g-shoe shares too), but also took in some stock as well, that they have likely been selling into a weak shareholder base (my sense is this position is largely liquidated now). Worth noting UBS aggressively trading swap shares recently. Lastly, some funds that participated in the capital markets transaction came into that short, so a strong oversubscribed offering was more hype than substance.

Parting thoughts: Until the ABVX sale process concludes this is likely going to trade like an event situation with a limited universe of incremental buyer(s), but the reward vs risk w/ a hedge trade structure such as (down 10/25) put spreads in place to remove some of the gap risk, looks like it is setting up...

Link to other ABVX thoughts: https://t.co/1kT9HEaVsU

Original purchase at $70: https://t.co/keUgWBNn0W

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@DeepSailCapital $QXO could make it happen

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@jawnzilla That aside, SpaceX seems to be getting a stronger position against OpenAI and Anthropic. If they both reached 1T valuations there’s a decent argument SpaceX commands a premium against them with the space business

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@jawnzilla Yeah, I interviewed a few years back and if I remember correctly have sizing limits way lower than this too

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@jawnzilla I do think SpaceX is cheap here though

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@jawnzilla The figure is really distorted and they are for sure going to unwind this position over time. Endowment team made a private investment a few years back that’s become a multibagger, they had to include that in their 13F now that SpaceX has gone public

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

How does $ALOY, a 7-employee Boca Raton company that came public through the weirdly named Blackboxstocks, deserve a ~$1bn valuation?

Because it put “mine-to-magnet,” “rare earths,” “defense,” and “China supply chain risk” in one deck?

Add the CEO’s prior penny-stock promo lawsuit baggage and this looks less like an industrial champion and more like the market prepaying for a story years before the business exists…

Do you see it?

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

“Supporting the bid” on an 80m float ahkay fam

[Benjamin Yo @short_cap]

Let the war begin

We have increased our long position $AAOI

We have begun supporting the bid at $147

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

Aye man 🤓

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

Bought some $INDI Sept calls

[Zach Brennan @ZacharyBrennan]

ICYMI: The Olympics for biopharma - the quinquennial (every 5 years) deal that pays the FDA to review drugs quickly has arrived.
Made even bigger this year bc of the pro-US provisions that have never before been included - here's a quick rundown of some of the many details (1/4)

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

Bought some $INDI Sept calls

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@davidmiedz Back to shitcos with 2 quarters of cash runway pls

[Sehaj @SehajFund]

@jawnzilla Hey Kevin, check out $INDI. Just started looking at it today and it seems like your cup of tea. Only US listed supplier to Unitree, which will IPO later this month in China.