Vimal Shah

Investor, Living Life, Enjoy golf and traveling

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Good and spirited debate and nice to hear differing viewpoints. While the debate covered the downside of manufacturing in US from China growth, it didn't cover the benefits:
Lower inflation for last 30-40 years which also led to high growth of per capita income in US.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

🚨 An All-Time Episode: The Great Tariff Debate 🤝

featuring:

-- @Jason

-- @chamath

-- @DavidSacks

-- @LHSummers

-- @ezraklein

(@friedberg is off this week!)

(0:00) bestie intros!

(0:58) reacting to trump targeting china and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs

(21:21) measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting china into the wto

(46:14) is the us being exploited on trade? was free trade a mistake?

(1:02:01) recession chances, how the trump administration gathers information

(1:19:39) future of the democratic party, abundance agenda, doge

(1:51:00) the besties recap the debate and chamath recaps the breakthrough prize ceremony

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Good letter and worth reading of AI's potential impact on investing and diversification!

[Nicholas Mugalli @RealNickMugalli]

If you’re a young investor trying to make sense of this market, you have to bookmark this and read it line by line. Josh Kushner (whose a legend imo) wrote his first ever formal letter to backers of his $65 billion firm, Thrive Capital. it offers a rare window into where the smartest capital is actually flowing.

Winning isn't about diversification anymore…

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

@theallinpod @Jason @DavidSacks @friedberg @chamath Good discussion but Jason asked about Polymarket midterms and David and Chamath railed on polls. Come on guys! David is the partial truth teller...love your perspective. Not committed to either party but telling us how it is!

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Wish Patrick would question further about the amount of spending to generate starlink, data center or AI/chip biz and poke holes in thesis? Or have someone on who can take the other side. No wonder Gavin does not mention the small float!

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions:

“A Substack writer, @FundaAI, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months.

I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.”

“To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX.

SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

This will drive ultimate hardware vs software debate!
https://t.co/a50nWbLfwv

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Data center buildout much longer than market thinks and that includes all the components inside it

[Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer]

$MU $DRAM

Why are AMD NVDA GOOGL & MSFT locking into 5 year memory contracts with guaranteed price floors & upfront payments?

I thought memory was cyclical.

I thought you just wait 6 months for the crash and buy cheap.

They are not waiting. They went all in. Five years. Why?

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Very informative and timely to hear about cost increases due to shortage of labor, memory and power. 1GW was costing $50B last year and looks like $60B this year. Do services contracts with Oracle or other hyperscalers pass on this 20% inflation increase?

[Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03]

One of the most substantive classes with @ChaseLochmiller at Stanford. We went deep on economics of the datacenter:
- Where is the ~$650B of AI infra capex actually going this year?
- Who's capturing the margin, who's getting squeezed?
- How the bottleneck has moved from GPUs to power, and where it goes next
- The economics of neoclouds

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

New low Elon! I respect what you have done as an entrepreneur but I have even more respect for Anthropic for turning down a quick buck for morals against mass surveillance and casualties. That's western ideals for standing up what you believe in especially considering what's going on these days with our leaders.

[Nicolas Bustamante @nicbstme]

https://t.co/v7sot4WCI2

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨 A massive amount of US debt is coming due:

$9.6 trillion of US marketable government debt will mature over the next 12 months, the most EVER.

This is DOUBLE the number seen before the 2020 Crisis.

This also accounts for 33% of ALL outstanding debt, one of the highest percentages in history.

Most of this debt must be refinanced at significantly higher interest rates compared to the 2020 Crisis, when the Fed funds rate sat near 0%.

The US DEBT CRISIS is hitting a new level.

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Great post Ethan but 2 questions to consider:

There are more than 4 leading LLMs: Meta may enter the race and some Chinese LLMs from Alibaba, Bytedance, Deepseek, etc which are producing tokens at fraction of western LLMs. Wouldn't consumers in Europe, Asia and rest of the world go to lowest cost producer. For example, Cursor has built their own model using Deepseek and offering that model at much lower price that the models from Anthropic and OpenAI. How will this impact usage over the next 5 years if Chinese LLMs catch up?

Oracle which is the second primary partner for data center buildout for OpenAI is forecasted to spend 50B and negative FCF of 25B in 2026 and will run negative FCF for several years and will the debt markets enable them to fund their buildout?

[Milton Friedman Quotes @MiltonFriedmanW]

Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.”

“If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.”

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

It seems that hyperscalers and China semiconductor stack are all trying to come up with lower cost options. Even with improvements by Nvidia, hyperscalers have to pay 50% operating margins for $TSMC and $NVDA. These profit margins cannot last for $NVDA if you believe in competition created by capitalism!

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Pretty drastic change by Vanguard and agree that BTC should be part of the portfolio especially when it is down 30%

[Smindi @SmindCrypto]

That is precisely the point.

Mass institutional adoption is not just a bet on price; it is a vote of confidence in immutable scarcity.

Mathematical Integrity:

Institutions are affirming that the Bitcoin network cannot be broken, corrupted, or censored—a guarantee of mathematical reliability far superior to any paper-backed promise.

The Safe Haven Thesis:

The selling seen during the Yen Carry Trade unwind was forced liquidation of leverage, not a rejection of Bitcoin's value.

Sophisticated institutions are betting that over a 5-10 year horizon, the network's zero-counterparty-risk structure makes it the only true long-term safe haven from currency debasement and geopolitical risk, regardless of short-term volatility.

The money is flowing to the one asset where the ledger is guaranteed by physics and code, not by politicians and banks.

#BitcoinAdoption #InstitutionalMoney #DigitalGold #Scarcity

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

Right and good arguments @FareedZakaria

[Fareed Zakaria @FareedZakaria]

When government seems incapable of building housing, fixing schools or balancing budgets, even sympathetic voters lose faith.

If Democrats want to rebuild that faith, they must rediscover the lost art of competence.

My take:

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Druckenmiller nailed this

The present is already priced. You have to position where the fundamentals are going

That is why I leaned into AI & space in 2023 when it became clear compute would become a utility & defense would expand beyond Earth

See it early & size it correctly

[Cory Booker @CoryBooker]

Thank you @TheDailyShow

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

OMG!

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

🚨 BOMBSHELL: Federal judges caught the U.S. government lying in over 35 court cases; falsified records, fake declarations, and sworn statements built on fiction.

This isn’t clerical error. It’s institutional deceit.
Even legal scholars now say it looks intentional.

📺 60 Minutes | 🔗 https://t.co/4BwHOBeInU

[Tansu Yegen @TansuYegen]

The teacher challenged his students to remove a mandarin from a glass full of water without spilling a single drop.

[Vimal Shah @Shah_Vimal]

We have to acknowledge that some tariffs have nothing to do with national security and brining critical supplies back to US. These trade policies if it continues could slowdown world GDP because we are not following comparative advantage (economic theory)

[Ro Khanna @RoKhanna]

We have a president who is building more wealth through his office than any in history. We cannot turn a blind eye to this corruption.

On Monday, I will be introducing a resolution to stop the president, his family, and members of Congress from trading in crypto and accepting money from foreign entities.