Sharp Action

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@PolymarketFC @henrywinter Great news. Hope for the worst for this trash, racist, human being.

[Pinnacle @Pinnacle]

Most bettors look at squad quality and call it a day.

The sharpest #FIFAWorldCup bettors layer in three more factors: squad age, tournament experience and qualifying form. ⚽

Here's how to use all three before the openers ⬇️
https://t.co/QJEazbNqL7

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@_MrHuge_ @Az_dwise @FabrizioRomano He said 'You can't understand.' Not 'You can't understand HIM.'

[Nishi @nishikoripicks]

JM Cerundolo beat Sinner in the previous round. Now he plays Landaluce.

Will the “Giant Killer” strategy work this time?

The idea is simple: betting against players who have just beaten a Big 5 member may have long-term +EV.

Landaluce is around 2.40 now.

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@nishikoripicks 1st thing i thought about after Sinner and Djoko matchs was your article about the giant killer. I already bet Landaluce and Ruud ! Best of luck everybody

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@_onlyscott Eric ABIDAL, Ludovic GIULY 🇫🇷

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@InvertTheWing Le footix originel

[Nishi @nishikoripicks]

This week in my Wednesday newsletter I said that Mannarino’s odds vs Collignon in Geneva of almost 9.0 were a gift, even though he had lost the match. And I received this reply from someone called William:

"Odds are never a gift if you lost lol."

And this is precisely the mistake many bettors like William make.

They see betting as something deterministic, as if the result was already written, and as if only winning bets were good bets, while losing bets were bad bets.

I think most of you reading this already know that things don’t work like that.

This is about probabilities.

If Mannarino wins 1 out of every 5, 6, or even 7 or 8 matches in those exact pre-match circumstances, then the bet was good.

Of course you never know it, but you know what I mean, this must be your thinking.

By the way, you will notice that I almost never talk about my winning bets after the event. I find that quite embarrassing. I usually only talk about the ones I lose.

Back to the point, in this world, I see a very strong relationship between the narrative and the result.

One piece of advice I received years ago, and which helped me a lot, is this:

Once you have obviously analysed all the variables that may affect the outcome of a match, try to see the odds as a kind of odds supermarket.

You pick the prices that you believe are very interesting given the context, without worrying too much about the short-term results.

I know it is almost impossible not to care about short-term results. But ideally, that is how it should be.

You analyse carefully, you buy prices, and a few months later you check how you did.

Because hasn’t this happened to you before?

You start analysing a match. You look at the pros and cons of betting on a certain player. You get too focused on the narrative, the variables, the context… and in the end you decide not to bet.

Then later you realise you probably should have, because the price was just too good.

For example, you think: “Yes, this player is top 10, but he hasn’t been playing well on clay this season.”

So you decide not to take 2.70 because of that supposed poor form.

And then, after thinking about it again, you say to yourself:

“Damn, but the price was very high. That was probably already more than priced in.”

Those of us who bet without a machine learning model telling us where to bet still have to fight against this way of thinking.

It's the price, it's the price, it's the fckn price.

The focus should be on the price.

Of course, you have to take all those factors into account. But you should not let them distract you from the most important thing: the price.

Anyway, today I just wanted to talk about this. A bit of betting philosophy.

[ValueBetFactory @ValueBetFactory]

Marco Trungelliti, 36, just broke into the top 100 for the first time. He'll play Roland Garros in the main draw this week.

In 2015, he was approached to fix matches. He reported it and got death threats, was branded a snitch by fellow players. Coria's father confronted his wife in a players' lounge. They left Argentina and moved to Spain.

Three players were banned. Trungelliti spent years ranked outside the top 200.

"Players and coaches are fixing matches. They are still there. Nothing has changed."

One of the best stories in tennis right now 👇

https://t.co/HPApxO26ud

[ISC🎾🎾 @IscooTennis]

#RolandGarros   

🇪🇸Bassols Ribera @ 3.95 - 0.5u✅
🇦🇷Giovannini @ 2.44 - 1u❌
🇬🇧Gill @ 4.5 - 0.5u✅
🇮🇹Cadenasso @ 2.48 - 1u❌
🇫🇷Pavlovic @ 3.5 - 0.75u✅

3/5 et +3.1u ✅ 10.4% de ROI ≈ 275 bets ! continuez à donner de la force je continuerai gratuitement aussi !

#Teamparieur

[ISC🎾🎾 @IscooTennis]

#RolandGarros

🇯🇵Uchijima @ 1.55 - 1.5u ❌
🇬🇷 Tsitsipas 2-0 @ 2.16 - 1u ✅
🇨🇿Salkova @ 2.28 - 1u ✅
🇫🇷Dodin @ 5 - 0.5u ✅
🇦🇷Ortenzi @ 1.76 - 1u ✅
🇧🇷Boscardin @ 5.2 - 0.5u ✅

5/6 et +5.8u ! ✅ je vous demande 1 seule chose, CASSEZ LE TWEET ❤️!

#TeamParieur

[ISC🎾🎾 @IscooTennis]

#RolandGarros (W)🇫🇷

🇨🇿Salkova @ 2.28 - 1u
🇫🇷Dodin @ 5 - 0.5u
🇦🇷Ortenzi @ 1.76 - 1u

#RolandGarros (H)🇫🇷

🇧🇷Boscardin Dias @ 5.2 - 0.5u

#Teamparieur

[ISC🎾🎾 @IscooTennis]

#Rabat 🇲🇦

🇯🇵Uchijima @ 1.55 - 1.5u

#Geneve 🇨🇭

🇬🇷 Tsitsipas 2-0 @ 2.16 - 1u

#TeamParieur

[Data7&Match @Data7M]

On rêve tous d'un exploit du @HBCNantes ce soir pour avoir a minima un club 🇫🇷 dans chaque Final 4 cette saison.

Mais le Barça cette saison est monstrueux. Mené seulement 7 % du temps sur les 15 matchs de @ehfcl.

Du jamais vu à ce niveau... et encore, vous savez pas tout ⬇️⬇️

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@NeilMac555 C'est exactement pour ce genre d'avis que tu ne seras jamais pris au serieux. Footix.

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@JourdainUFC Crack Jourdain

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@InvertTheWing T'es un sacré footix

[Sharp Action @Sharp_Acti0n]

@_onlyscott Easy, it's N'Golo Kanté !

[Jiang Xueqin @xueqinjiang]

My talk on the world after the US-Iran War: https://t.co/8gRqupl8wS

[Intervalle Handball @HandIntervalle]

🇫🇷 Nantes 33-31 Veszprém 🇭🇺

🔥 Les nantais renversent complètement le match et battent les hongrois dans les dernières minutes!

📺 Les 15 dernières minutes avec B.Charollais et Thierry Anti

⭐ Ivan Pešić

#ChampionsLeague