Shearwater Capital

not investment advice

[Jeffrey Emanuel @doodlestein]

Interesting, here's what my very elaborate system says are the smartest stock pickers after removing all returns from style factors.

It makes some simplifying assumptions based on 13-F holdings, but should be directionally accurate for these kinds of investors. Good work EAM!

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@jay_21_ 1) https://t.co/K4ss2FudPg

2) https://t.co/QOLYmymNth

3) https://t.co/Jqr8MetqXh

4) https://t.co/KsoC9OMwtr

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@evrgn11112231 @taobanker *at reasonable entry multiples that won’t get crushed if rates rise

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@AggieCapitalist 2021 redux

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@SouthernValue95 Today those factors reflect adverse selection and shouldn’t outperform. Private equity will snipe cheap small caps and higher growth companies are incentivized to stay private for longer so we no longer see high quality businesses going public with market caps below $2b

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@Scott_K_Rodgers @AggieCapitalist Agree it’s cheap but PF multiple is probably lower after a sale-leaseback

[Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600]

This is called the sponge city effect in my little world of demographics. In a declining region we often see the biggest city soaking up population since jobs and health services etc cluster in a single area rather than spreading out. Japan has been shrinking for three decades while Tokyo happily grows.

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@bucketshopcap Narrative is an extrapolation of price which in turn is an extrapolation of NT fundamental momentum - this is just how LT investors try to comprehend a market that is increasingly valuation agnostic

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@TwannsWorld It’s a casino, not a marketplace. Platform success = user loss and the whales (biggest losers) are monetized accordingly

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@RSimpton325 @ClarkSquareCap Linonia = Echinus 2.0?

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@HotDogCap @JohnStonkton4 @doodlestein “When a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, the reputation of the business remains intact”

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@DeItaone @LONGCONVEXITY @rev_cap

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@rev_cap @MacroPancakes https://t.co/gsuuTsEZ45?

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@rev_cap @MacroPancakes 💯 will be a replay of Japan and Korea

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@rev_cap “If Gen Z and younger millennials give up on homeownership, their attitudes to savings and investment are likely to change—and the attraction of gambling on speculative instruments increases…” https://t.co/zRvT1VJu1p

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

NEW: we don’t reflect enough on how severe the housing crisis is, and how it has completely broken the promise society made to young adults.

The situation is especially severe in the UK, where the last time house prices were this unaffordable was in ... 1876.

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@CrosscheckC @valuedelay Agreed - difficult to explicitly monetize a static view on earnings quality unless a company is taken private and/or reduces its financing costs. I’ve found the best re-rate opptys are event-driven, involving a reduction in complexity + SOTP-style handoff from BadCo to GoodCo

[Shearwater Capital @ShearwaterCap1]

@CrosscheckC @ChairliftCap @ChairliftCap Ski Inc 2020 by Diamond?

[Chairlift Capital @ChairliftCap]

“We think complexity is the biggest barrier to success in the investment business”

[Hunter 🌆 @rhunterh]

"We define risk as a permanent loss of capital." -Someone about to show you the worst 10yr track record you've ever seen