Altcoins Likely to Outperform in 2025:
1. Potential ETF approvals
2. Sustainable attention drivers
3. Revenue-generating projects
The era of everything pumping is over. It’s a selective altseason—most altcoins won’t make it.
When good news is bad news: #Fed tightening assumptions advanced – the market is pricing in 81% odds of a 25bp hike on 5/3 w/year-end Funds Rate of 4.48% (up 14bp vs. Thurs) due to solid bank earnings, which could cause the Fed to focus on #inflation. (via @knowledge_vital)
This chart reveals why Fed, US Treasury & FDIC now bailing out the whole US banking system. US banks are sitting on bond losses of $600bn. These are still book losses in HTM accounts, but if customers had withdrawn their money & banks had to sell, there could have been contagion.
Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate...
-Mar 22, 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00%.
-Pause.
-Rate cuts start in Nov 2023 and continue throughout 2024 with the Fed Funds Rate moving back below 3%.
The Fed's balance sheet was reduced by 2.4% (-$206 billion) in 2022, the first annual decline since 2018. If QT continues at the current pace (-$95 billion/month), we'll see a further reduction of 13.3% (-$1.14 trillion) in 2023.
What I learned at IMF/WB meetings
1. No consensus on monetary policy. Most policy makers want to keep hiking aggressively, most market participants want central banks to slow. Best quote I heard: "When I drive into fog, I slow down." There's massive global uncertainty. Slow down!
The IMF yesterday unveiled its latest outlook. Biggest departure from our forecasts is the Euro zone. IMF does NOT forecast recession in 2023, with positive growth of +0.5%. We've forecast recession since March and now expect -2.4% in 2023. Lots of downside to the IMF forecast...
September global manufacturing PMI fell below 50 for the first time since the pandemic, down 0.8pt to 49.9
This is due to lower activity components (-0.7pt to 48.1) while price pressures components remained unchanged at 57.3
Seeing lots of social media chatter about bank contagion so I'll retweet this here.
The bigger economic and financial issues here in 2022 are centered in sovereign bonds, currencies, and energy. They're not centered primarily in banks like 2008, except for some areas.
56 days to zkSync 2.0 on mainnet. Every Friday vote to help make zkSync #1 for developers. Give a 💗 and RT in the threads below to vote for your must-have tools & integrations. If we missed one or you want to help, quote tweet with #1000truedevs.
🧵 (1/9)
@VitalikButerin gave us An Incomplete Guide to Rollups
I present The Complete Guide to Rollups :)
Ok not quite but gud meme
Enshrined (FINALLY), sovereign, smart contract, recursive… I go deep their tech + economics
Ya it’s long, but tons of memes
https://t.co/yiCcciv1VU
If you are wondering why the heck bond yields are tanking and equities are rallying...
Let's unpack the Fed meeting and the market reaction together.
A thread.
1/11
#BTC $SPX
If I was going off #Twitter sentiment alone
(Which is how I called the Covid bottom in Stocks/#BTC to the day while EVERYONE called for a 2nd Great Depression)
I'd say we BOTTOM this week
I don't care about bottom calls But, I'm sure the MAJORITY will get this wrong
Since crypto is about financial freedom and many people lost alot of money on $LUNA , i will giveaway 10000$ to 10 people, if you have dark tought feel free to DM me. There is always a way out, if you done it once you can do it again. Life is alot more then money. RT+LIKE.