Simon

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@NathanB60857242 @CharlesD353 @NathanpmYoung @Aria_Babu Same, and I have been listening to podcasts for a _long_ time

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@Almost_Sure https://t.co/EjTU2DPR3m

John Baez has been writing some excellent stuff on this topic recently.

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@NathanpmYoung You also get YouTube Music too, which means you don't need Spotify / Apple Music anymore...

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@WillowChem The problem is {x:P(x)} was how they defined sets, so once you say "this is an illegitimate way to define sets" you need to solve that problem - new set theory was one solution

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@XplodingCabbage @eigenrobot @OneBadOpinion "serve in the military" isn't really what the u18s at Harrogate are doing. (At least in the sense you are implying)

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@krishnanrohit @NathanpmYoung What's the arb here? Those timelines (8 years and 100 days) are very different.

[Simon @SmoLurks]

40/ The Secret History

[Simon @SmoLurks]

Books I read in 2024

[Simon @SmoLurks]

39/ The Spirit of Mathematics: Algebra and all that

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@peterwildeford https://t.co/0F35dCohIP

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@JgaltTweets Chart seems to suggest they both think he'd vote for Trump though?

[Simon @SmoLurks]

We can see the PnL difference:

Long 2 units of Harris ECV would have made 2x(267-260) = 14

Long 1 unit of Harris ECV supremacy would have made (22-(-1)) = 23

[Simon @SmoLurks]

Spreads should depend on vol, not on the size of the number!

Harris/Trump ECV is 8 wide.
Harris - Trump ECV is 6 wide.

Harris - Trump is *exactly* 2x Harris ECV in risk terms. The market is equivalent to Harris being 3 wide.

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@sp_monte_carlo https://t.co/A8OimGlSoT

@EgeErdil2

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@NunoSempere (and Kalshi, lol)

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@NunoSempere Put the following in order: 538, Betfair, Economist, Metaculus, Polymarket, PredictIt, Silver Bulletin

[Simon @SmoLurks]

@NunoSempere Are the days of massively mispriced (political) betting markets over?