professeur

No shit coins, yes Bitcoin, Metaplanet opportunist! What happens in your wallet stays in your wallet. Swing trader of Spacs & Stocks

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

SPAC, #SpacSchool

Welcome new traders to SPAC’s.

Educate, read SEC filings, follow informative traders on Twitter. Good luck!!

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@dave80182204 @yosoymario91

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@BTCBULLRIDER Just did it last week, took 5 business days to show up after calling broker..

Now is the time!

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@orangeyield @RoaringRagnar Pure hopium on a business model even management couldn’t predict. Their speculation was a false perception they threw at early investors.

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@gerovich @phil_geiger Basically saying, the original investors who believed you from day one and have held are fucked till who knows when…

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@keilaaman

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@AltcoinDaily ADA….

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@fenixeleventwo @HermesLux You’re the best influencer.. nailed it!

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@shiryohost Nicely done!

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@Wee_Welshie @GregorioSh64773 Luv you for speaking the truth ♥️

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@GregorioSh64773 I respect the work and discipline, it’s sexy
as fk when both partners are ripped and smashing. She will soften with age, let her show off her work ethic without bashing her. Chill the fk out!

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@NitherDither @RoaringRagnar @DylanLeClair Oh, the one thing that destroys all the possibilities ! This is how this shit show began, destroying investors that supported Metaplanet early on. Management choosing to repeat this is not something you should ignore when writing all the hopium and financial wonders. 1.01 mNav

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

Something for everyone: bulls and bears.. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Blake @LogicalBitcoinr]

The "why hasn't Metaplanet filed the MERCURY listing application yet" question is everywhere right now. Most people are reading the silence wrong. Here's my take.

The TSE listing process has 5 phases. Charter amendment is done. Then comes pre-consultation with JPX, which is invisible to the public, no filings, no 8-K equivalents, nothing observable. Then formal application, JPX-R review (3-6 months typical), then approval. So when people look at the surface and see nothing happening, they may be looking at a phase that doesn't generate any visible signal at all.

My probability of MERCURY listing by Dec 2026 sits at 15-40%. The mechanical reality: if no application is filed by September 30, the December put deadline becomes impossible.

So why no filing yet. Here's how I rank the drivers, which compound, not mutually exclusive.

Biggest at ~50%, they're waiting for the FIEA amendment to pass the Diet. The JFSA's proposed amendment reclassifies Bitcoin from a "crypto-asset" under PSA to a "financial product" under FIEA. Diet passage looks ~85-90% probable in Q2 2026, effective spring 2027, with a 20% capital gains rate effective Jan 2028. File before that passes and JPX-R has to rule on a BTC-backed preferred while Bitcoin is still legally a crypto-asset, which is a fight no regulator wants. File after passage and they have political cover. Application clock starts Q3 2026, decision lands Q4 2026, surgical timing right under the put deadline.

~30% compounding, pre-consultation is happening, we just can't see it. Saylor met Gerovich face to face in February and didn't push back on the timeline publicly. Mild evidence of a non-public plan still on track.

~20%, underwriting infrastructure isn't ready. Japanese underwriters, market makers, and retail distribution channels (SBI, Rakuten, Nomura) for a brand-new asset class is multi-quarter work.

~15%, put extension leverage. File and get rejected, the put fires automatically. Don't file and you preserve negotiation leverage to extend at sweetened terms. Original holders are sophisticated foreign funds, they'd rather extend at higher coupon than force a $154M cash redemption requiring BTC sales at depressed prices.

~15%, JPX investigation overhang on Bitcoin treasury companies as a category. Filing a novel listing application during active regulatory review is high-risk.

Bear case at ~15-20%, informal pre-consultation feedback already came back saying it won't fly on current terms, and management is quietly preparing for put extension rather than burning credibility on a public rejection. Consistent with what we observe. Can't dismiss it.

Where most bear takes go wrong, they link "BTC went down" or "Strategy hasn't proved the model" to "Japanese preferred appetite is muted." That's conflating two separate questions. Regulatory approval is independent of BTC price, it depends on FIEA classification, TSE listing standards, and the JPX investigation resolution. Demand absorption after listing is somewhat price-correlated, but driven more by Japanese yield desperation than Bitcoin narrative. You can't use BTC price action to predict JPX-R approval. Different clocks.

The other thing people miss, if MERCURY lists, the demand pool isn't existing MTPLF holders (who have been brutalized, fair point). It's $7 trillion in Japanese deposits earning 0.10% and $13B/month in NISA flows. There are six listed preferred instruments in Japan worth $4.5B combined. MERCURY at 4.9% would be the highest-yielding listed preferred in the country. Relative yield vs deposits is 49-61×, orders of magnitude more demand desperation than STRC faces in the US.

What would change my mind: if FIEA passes the Diet in Q2 2026 and Metaplanet still hasn't filed by July, the FIEA-wait thesis is dead and silence starts to mean something much darker. On the other side, any leaked Phase 2 signal (Nikkei reporting, JPX informal acknowledgment, Gerovich on a Japanese podcast referencing JPX dialogue) pushes me toward higher conviction.

Speculate is the right word for any of this. The honest version just needs to be calibrated to what actually drives the timeline, the Diet, the JFSA, and JPX-R, not the BTC chart.

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@SimpPolice911

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

Why????

[Bitcoin News @BitcoinNewsCom]

NOW: 🇯🇵 Metaplanet has taken over the Las Vegas Sphere 👀

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@Raj50689Sanjeeb

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@Ducnghia16

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@AnonLaserEyes @dRiskDave Same positioning and feelings as you guys. 🍻

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

Attn:

Japanese holders (in Japan)

.. all this hopium without one bit of knowledge, evidence or fact to back up that MARS is just delayed. If I remember when they announced it , it was a 3-4 month process. Any insight from Japan and this delay.
Something is not adding up..

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@HikaruJuro Maybe because Saylor knew that MARS will not pass Japan regulations. Preferred is not a given…

[professeur @SpacsStocks]

@BTC_broo