Special Situation

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@christankerfund @mercoglianos What happens to day rates if Iran somehow closes the strait of Hormuz?

What if Iranian export capacity effectively drops to 0 for a few years?

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@twallyweb @Vinny_Daniel0 …medical offices

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@bairdk WTF is wrong with you!?

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@CliffordAsness There’s so much uncertainty, both economic and geopolitical, that firms and consumers are deferring investments while they wait to see what’s next. The fear is real and feeds a vicious cycle.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@shawngorham @BowTiedBroke Sounds like a moat. Also you can’t really defer spending on termites and cockroaches.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@d0tslash Chemistry is one of those things that require a firm understanding of arithmetic. LLMs are not so good at that. That makes “Chem AI” an articulate incompetent armed with hydrofluoric acid.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@yeticapital99 It’s not just small businesses either, Schultz, Dell, etc had to come out of retirement when their management teams dropped the ball. The only truly passive investment is a broad market index fund.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@CovertShores The best way to learn about a complicated topic is to post a quick take online. Several actual subject matter experts will feel compelled to post 500 word rebuttals. A lively discussion will follow where they express things they wouldn’t at work.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@CliffordAsness Also I doubt she has anything resembling a pragmatic plan. Most candidates don’t. The only ones in the last century were probably FDR, LBJ, Reagan & Hillary. Everyone else was all vibes & pipe dreams.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@CliffordAsness So worst case scenario she proposes a higher tax on capital gains which congress won’t pass.

What happens if the other guy wins? Remember jan6? Also who will be one obese 78 year old’s heartbeat away from the presidency?

Which is worse?

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@datarade “We should do X” is more useful than “we should not do Y”. If you want to reduce vol in the ME you need to restore the Ottoman Empire but I don’t think they want to.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@codyschneider Can you define “VC related”? Is it VCs, service providers to VCs, portfolio companies?

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@MomAngtrades Do you honestly believe Trump, 78, can make it ~5 years to the end of his term when he will be 83 without the cognitive decline that affected Biden (81) or Mitch McConnell (82)?

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@CliffordAsness The orange god is a jealous god. He will tear this guy down if he continues getting so much positive publicity. 🍿

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@yeticapital99 The Chinese shadow debt thesis has been around for at least 15 years…but their central bank is pretty good at managing the little financial crises that pop up periodically.

Construction will have to slow down at some point, probably abruptly, but I’d bet on any other catalyst

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@sulligraph @SMBGrowthGuy I remember ordering furniture like this in the 90s. Took 8-12 weeks to make and ship, was 5x IKEA prices at the time, made in USA of quality wood.

Unfortunately it was designed by fools so it was utter s***. Many such cases.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@TrentTelenko The ESG people had cash to burn for a while & also needed to quantify pollution throughout a product’s life so they funded grants resulting in a bloom in the literature. Perhaps it will aid future generations, but there will always be more $ in willful ignorance.

[Special Situation @SpecialSit]

@TrentTelenko It’s not just the Keynesians, but most economists who treat pollution this way. It’s a “negative externality” deemed too difficult to quantify, and thus safe to ignore. But there’s papers to be written in quantification of previously unquantified things

1/

[Wolfgang Blau @wblau]

I keep thinking about the Californian investment banker who said to me: 'Presenting renewable energy as low-carbon and climate friendly is mostly the wrong story. Yes, of course, they are. But you should focus on the argument of low-cost energy instead. Whenever energy can be produced at much lower cost than ever before, economies go through growth cycles. Focus on the shocking cost differential between renewables and fossils, and a whole new set of people will listen'