SpeedTrapp

Long/Short Value investor. I write about stock ideas that I like, and I follow investors that I like.

[Project Read @ProjectReadAI]

Two weeks ago we launched Spelling Mode in the Project Read Tutor, and the response from classrooms has been incredible.

Spelling Mode is the first digital tool to analyze student spelling via touchscreen down to the letter-sound correspondence, built in collaboration with the @UFLiteracy team and aligned to the UFLI scope and sequence.

Encoding has a symbiotic relationship with decoding, and is where so many students struggle.

We think this is a fundamentally shift in how digital tools can support emerging readers and spellers.

Demo here:
https://t.co/Kw1maNY63I

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

@chamath @chamath - There are companies doing this. The best example I’ve seen is @ProjectReadAI. Founder is super mission driven to end illiteracy.

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

@suekhim I'd like to try this for my school. I'm the principal of The Greater Dayton School. Can you contact me? This is exactly the kind of thing we pilot.

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

@TimebackLearn When can other schools buy this? The Greater Dayton School would like to be a customer.

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

@SenSanders The Greater Dayton School starts at $60K in one of the most affordable cities in the country, Dayton, Ohio. Teachers can make up to $74K after three years with us.

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

This is true, and it needs to stop. We're recreating the opportunity gap in education with the opportunity gap in youth sports.

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Let me explain exactly why parents pay $25,000 a year for youth sports their kid will never play professionally, because the math is more interesting than the headlines suggest.

The $25K is buying admissions arbitrage at elite colleges. Run it both ways.

Scholarship math first. The US has 8 million high school athletes. Roughly 7% play in college, 2% at D1. Total NCAA athletic scholarship spend is $3.6 billion across about 175,000 D1 athletes, mostly partial aid in the low teens per year. A family putting in $25K annually from age 6 to 18 spends $300K chasing a maximum return of about $80K. The expected value is a lottery ticket.

Admissions math second.

The SFFA v. Harvard trial disclosed that recruited athletes get admitted at 86%. The non-athlete rate sits around 5%. Even academically weak applicants jump to a 98% admit probability if recruited. A non-athlete with a 1397 SAT has roughly 0.08% odds at Harvard. The same kid recruited for crew has 70%+. The athletic hook is the largest single advantage in elite admissions, bigger than legacy or dean's list. Ivies don't even offer athletic scholarships. The value is purely the admissions ticket.

This is what $25K buys. Year-round travel ball is the qualifier round for an admissions process operating on different rules than the one your kid's classmates compete in. The "country club sports" pipeline (squash, lacrosse, crew, fencing, golf) is a feature. Barrier to entry is the product. 90% of Ivy League squash players come from $30K-a-year private high schools. The math works because the alternative pool is small.

PE arrived after the demand existed. Unrivaled Sports, Perfect Game, regional travel-ball roll-ups. Upper-middle-class parents had already turned youth sports into a class transmission mechanism. PE consolidated the supply chain and raised prices because the buyers were already there at $25K.

$300K to convert a 4% admit rate at an Ivy into an 86% one. Plus the alumni network and pre-professional sorting that follows. That's the actual equation.

The trade is rational at the top of the income distribution. Brutal everywhere else.

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

Don’t listen to the critics. Keep innovating.

In some ways, a teachers role is more valuable in the ai classroom of the future. Instead of having to focus primarily on content knowledge, teachers can focus on building character in kids. This is arguably a more important skill for society than math, reading, and writing content knowledge.

[liemandt @jliemandt]

Alpha School critics: "This model devalues the role of the teacher."

Public school teacher after spending a day at Alpha:
"Every teacher should spend a day on an Alpha campus."

[liemandt @jliemandt]

Alpha School critics: "This model devalues the role of the teacher."

Public school teacher after spending a day at Alpha:
"Every teacher should spend a day on an Alpha campus."

[Muhammad Ayan @socialwithaayan]

Google's AI tutor just beat human tutors in a randomized controlled trial in real UK classrooms.

Not a demo. Not a benchmark. A randomized controlled trial in five secondary schools with 165 real students doing real mathematics.

The number that matters: 5.5 percentage points.

That is how much better AI-tutored students performed when tested on topics they had never studied before. 66.2% versus 60.7% for the human tutor group.

That gap is on knowledge transfer. The hardest thing education is supposed to do. Not can you repeat what you just practiced. Can you take what you learned and apply it to something genuinely new.

The AI won on that.

Here is the study design detail everyone is glossing over, and it is the most interesting part.

This was not a fully autonomous AI running unsupervised. Expert human tutors supervised every message LearnLM drafted. They could revise anything before it hit the student.

They left 76.4% completely unchanged.

The AI was generating the pedagogical moves. The human was the quality filter. And even with that setup, the supervised AI condition outperformed human tutoring alone on the outcome that matters most.

It gets more interesting.

Multiple tutors reported learning new teaching techniques from watching the model work. Specifically, Socratic questioning strategies that pushed students to reason through problems rather than just receive corrections.

The tutors started using those strategies in their own classrooms.

The AI tutoring tool made the human teachers who ran it better at their jobs.

Now the honest part.

165 students is promising, not conclusive. Google funded and built the model, which means you want independent replication before betting a national education policy on it. A larger US trial is underway.

And the 0.1% factual error rate is low. Not zero.

But none of that changes what happened.

Benjamin Bloom proved in 1984 that one-on-one expert tutoring produces two standard deviation gains over classroom instruction. That finding has held up for forty years. It is probably the most replicated result in education research.

It has also been completely unscalable.

A private tutor for every student is not a policy. It is a privilege available to families who can afford it and inaccessible to everyone else.

Google just published randomized controlled trial evidence that an AI can match it. And on the hardest outcome measure, exceed it.

Not in a lab. Not with ideal conditions. In five ordinary secondary schools in the UK with ordinary students who came in not knowing which condition they were in.

The most expensive privilege in education just ran on a server.

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

Going to start spending time on this personally - seems like we all need to solve it sooner rather than later.

[Ed Elson @edels0n]

Don’t be fooled by the fact they’re called Trump accounts

This is undisputably an excellent thing for America, and you should sign your kids up now

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

4/ Strategy: Buying the equity or LEAPs here is a bet on the platform, not one drug in their product line. With Eucalyptus adding $450M+ in ARR, the downside floor is much higher than the bears realize.
#ValueInvesting #HIMS #Eucalyptus

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

1/ The market is pricing $HIMS like a "one-trick pony" facing an FDA cliff. But the $1.15B Eucalyptus acquisition (Mid-2026 close) changes the math entirely. It's a massive geographic hedge and global scale-up. 🧵

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

3/ The "Margin of Safety": Even if GLP-1 revenue vanishes (Case B), $HIMS at ~$16 trades at a fair multiple of its core business. If they win on weight loss (Case A), you're getting a lottery ticket for free.

[Ian Miles Cheong @ianmiles]

Marc Andreessen: There are two ways to think about education. One is at the national level — how do you educate all kids? But the real question is N = 1: what do you do for one individual kid? And for centuries, the answer has been obvious.

If your goal is to maximize a single child, the best method by far is one-on-one tutoring. Every royal family knew this. Every aristocratic class knew this. It’s why Alexander the Great was tutored by Aristotle — and then took over the world.

There’s actually statistical proof of this. The Bloom’s 2-sigma effect shows one-on-one tutoring can move a kid from the 50th percentile to the 99th percentile. No other educational method comes close.

AI changes that. For the first time in history, every kid can have access to infinite questions, instant feedback, personalized explanations, and real-time quizzes — all at N = 1 scale.

This is the most powerful shift in education we’ve seen in centuries. One-on-one tutoring was always the gold standard. AI is what finally makes it available to everyone.

[Dr. Tomislav Marinovic @DrTomsLens]

$HIMS continues to look like an outlier on fundamentals.

Healthcare hasn’t structurally changed in decades. Peak innovation is still a doctor typing up a diagnosis and prescription while you sit there for 20 minutes.

The real inflection is when AI is paired with years of longitudinal patient data, turning care into something continuous and personal, with minimal doctor visits.

$HIMS is moving the pieces into place for that moment, one biomarker at a time.

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

🚨 The "Digital Gold" Coiled Spring Thesis

1/ The Signal: Historically, Gold is the "Canary in the Coal Mine." In the 2020 and 2024 cycles, Gold made record moves before Bitcoin went parabolic. It signals the market’s loss of faith in paper currency before the "Fast Horse" (BTC) takes off.

2/ The 2025 Anomaly: In 2025, Gold performed a literal $2\times$ "super-cycle" move, surging past $5,000/oz. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been consolidative, even slipping below its Power Law trend. This is a rare, binary divergence.

3/ The Valuation Gap: Bitcoin is currently "undervalued" relative to Gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. If just 2% of Gold’s $17T market cap rotates into BTC, we’re looking at a $160k+ target.

4/ The Investor's Edge: For LEAP holders and equity buyers, this is the "Fat Pitch." Gold has already "de-risked" the thesis by proving global demand for debasement hedges is at an all-time high. Bitcoin is simply waiting for its "catch-up" trade.

Bottom Line: Gold has set the stage. Bitcoin is the coiled spring. Buy the fear, hold the asset, and trust the math. 📈🚀

#ValueInvesting #Bitcoin #Gold #Macro #HardMoney

[Olivia Moore @omooretweets]

Investment banking analysts not marked safe from AI

I asked Claude in Excel to do a DCF. In ~3 minutes, it pulled web data and built the model (w/ notes, formatting, citations)

It then recognized the result was lower than the market price, so added a sensitivity analysis 🤯

[SpeedTrapp @SpeedTrapp2010]

The dawn of the Reverse Flipped Classroom https://t.co/oFLn86UZoQ via @YouTube