Michael Lopez

Data & Analytics @NFL, with stops at Skidmore (Asst Prof), Brown (PhD), UMass (MS), and Bates (Math, 🏈)

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

Mean or median?

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@Timo_NFL Cook avg carries inside the ten likely start at the 5 and Allen closer to the 2

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@Timo_NFL similar vibe https://t.co/FJJ1HNuS7t

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

Annual 0-and-2 graph: losing your first two NFL games means about a 10% chance of making the playoffs. But that's not much different than losing in any other pair of consecutive weeks

[Eric Tulsky @EricTulsky]

What an incredible day! Thanks to those who made it possible.
-- The keepers of the Aquinnah lighthouse (best views)
-- The Wampanoag powwow committee (best vibes)
-- The good people of Morning Glory Farm (best corn), Soigne (best brownies), and Back Door Donuts (donuts, obv, but check out the cake they made!)
-- The YMCA/ice arena for hosting a great visit
-- Offshore Ale for providing great food, drink, atmosphere, and kind hosts

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@cthspowerrank Easier to respond in Notes app!

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@NecessaryPaper @octonion @DataWithBliss @recspecs730 !!!

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

So @DataWithBliss @recspecs730 and I have been in the lab

[GametimeCT @GametimeCT]

NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula https://t.co/xazt5r6dU0 #ctbsoc

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@octonion @DataWithBliss @recspecs730 Yes!

Hierarchical Poisson with league-level (previous three years) and team-level (one per team per season) attacking/defense strengths

It wiped the floor of a single season model at predicting postseason results

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@octonion @DataWithBliss @recspecs730 Within-conference games dominate the schedules (Luke's network graph below).

We had to use league-level histories (three years back) with team-season indicators ... and once we did that, results were less sensitive to the small number of non-conference games

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

We wrote a non-technical explainer of our power rankings #ctgsoc #ctbsoc

https://t.co/NA0k98UKBq

[GametimeCT @GametimeCT]

NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula https://t.co/xazt5r6dU0 #ctgsoc

[Tom Bliss @DataWithBliss]

The Big Data Bowl mentorship program is built to increase diversity within sports analytics by connecting experienced NFL analytics experts with individuals who are quantitatively prepared but new to the field.

Applications are now live:
https://t.co/0SsyrAxxuP

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

Applications are open for the 2026-27 Big Data Bowl Mentorship Program https://t.co/ZuLs2Bhynx

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@Nate_Tice Yes

Fewer incompletions -> More running clock

More time off play clock per snap ->
more running clock

Fewer turnovers -> more running clock

But sure, let’s say it’s the QBs

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@Nate_Tice Goes beyond that - we’ve lost a play per game per year over the past decade

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@Timo_NFL @polyminnow @DMeredith28 Thanks Timo - here’s the link https://t.co/A7Z5D78hjJ

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@Matt_barlowe They’re often receiving dump offs on third down.

Sometimes the better comparison isn’t passes to WRs, but throwaways/QB sacks

[Brian Macdonald @bmacGTPM]

Announcing the Journal of Statistics and Data Science in Sports (JSDSS): a new, diamond open access, reproducible, peer-reviewed sports analytics journal. With @SchuckersM, @rtelmore, @statsinthewild0, and Ben Baumer. Submissions start Sep 1. More Details: https://t.co/KAiFxR46jh

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

@tangotiger https://t.co/qTL7EI4288

[Josh Hermsmeyer @friscojosh]

Been over half a decade since i did a big analytical deep dive on this site, which is absolutely the wrong place to do a big analytical deep dive. Nevertheless...

I have incentive to get this K-ball question right for my simulator, so I've been tracking it. I want to believe.

[Luke Bornn @LukeBornn]

CASSIS is less than 3 weeks away!

Both of our last two events ('22 and '24) sold out, and we’re expecting another great crowd this year.

If you’re planning to join us, now’s a good time to register.

👉 https://t.co/SyxeRocq7r