Sunil J

Music enthusiast. Subtly charming travel fan. Extreme problem solver.Thinker.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

BREAKING: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron just got sued for allegedly engineering the global memory chip shortage.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@svaradarajan @DevirupaM How can such a report not carry the name of the opinion-giver?

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@dugalira There seem to be grey areas in how the RBI enforces its decisions, preventing a clearer final verdict; a legal defence from Tata sons is expected.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@sandhyaravishan @NDTVProfitIndia There is no dearth of such cases nowadays where investigating journalists will be bored by taking their assignments.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@iamrakeshbansal It's called full-fledged connection effect; nothing else.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

Found an exact same scenario regarding govt jobs in India.https://t.co/ETtcT2vCFC

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@palakshahjourno How does it spur demand in the real economy?

[Justin Elliott @JustinElliott]

New story:

An Indian billionaire was targeted by the Trump administration.

Then he poured millions of dollars into an obscure startup secretly backed by Donald Trump Jr.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@ActusDei The simple 9-letter word "INCENTIVE" is what pushes such numbers; analysts are completely aware of their doings. The ultimate goal of such forecasting is to attract retail money. The larger the pot becomes, the fatter the bonuses get.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@_prashantnair All long-dated government bonds are overvalued at the current price; finding a fool is very difficult these days.

[Devina Mehra @devinamehra]

India is not doing well because it does not have an AI or innovation story... this much is obvious at least if you go by what the chattering heads are saying

But is it the truth or just an easy, lazy narrative?

If the only thing working in the world markets is #AI how come so many old economy companies and small cap companies are doing so well globally?

Even with AI the story is no longer with the Magnificent Seven who are just spending stupendous amounts of money in order to remain in the game

It is the suppliers for the huge capex that are booming for now: #semiconductors, networking, hardware your name it

But don't forget these are highly cyclical industries and AI capex may not remain at these stratospheric levels forever

Then there is the question of whether all this spending will ever make economic returns on capital 🤔

The music is still playing but don't forget what happened to all those who are dancing to the mortgage music up until 2008

My Oped in The Economic Times today on the AI story: Myth, reality and outlook

@EconomicTimes
@firstglobalsec
@fghumsmallcase

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@anuragsingh_as @monikahalan @SEBI_updates @ananthng It's nothing new; time correction is in place. FII is exiting due to lack of earnings growth expectation in the medium to long term; no one wants to pay a premium for mediocre earnings growth other than MF houses flush with public money.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@SoumyajitWrites Think about data security; if it's true that the govt is asking for such key data for handouts, then there is something else disguised within it for sure.

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Top Economists Flag the Blind Spot Holding India Back

1. CEA Nageswaran: Corporate profits up 31% pa; pvt investment to GDP @ 20-yr lows

2. Raghuram Rajan: Industry always chose rent-seeking over innovation; now it repeats the fatal error with refusal to invest in AI

INSIGHTS:

Why India’s Growth Faltered?

a. From FY21 to FY25, corporate net profits tripled to ₹7.1 lakh cr (FY25) as corporate taxes were reduced by one-third and strong government investments pushed GDP growth.

b. Corporate India retired its debt instead of investing profits in CapEx. Debt-to-Equity ratio for companies declined from 139% to 94%.

c. No Skin in the Game: Corporate cash reserves increased from ₹9L cr in FY21 to ₹16L cr in FY26. Private Investment to GDP ratio declined to a 20-year low from 16% during 2004-08 to 12% in FY23. FY26 investment halved from FY25.

Dr. V.A. Nageswaran

[May 2, 2026, Ashoka University Conference]

a. India’s Chief Economic Advisor Dr. Nageswaran has strongly criticized Indian industry for its reluctance to invest. He said it has contributed to demand uncertainty (broken consumption) in India.

b. Investment creates jobs and incomes. Nageswaran said: “Post-Covid, corporate profits of NSE 500 companies have grown at 30.8% annually. But investment has disappointed.”

c. Where are the Profits Going: CEA says promoters and their next generations are accumulating profits and setting up family offices elsewhere rather than investing in real assets (factories, technologies, R&D etc.)

d. With a weakened rupee, the gap between Indian and Chinese currencies (real effective exchange rate or REER) is closing. This is the moment when Indian industry can compete in the global markets at a level footing with China.

e. Recent Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have also created a level-playing field for Indian exports. Yet, India’s FTA utilization record remains poor compared to other countries.

e. Developed countries achieved so much because their industry acted in national interest. Now they are aggressively securing supply chains, refusing technology transfers, while India is heavily exposed to risks.

Dr. Raghuram Rajan

[6 May, 2026, The Indian Express]

a. India’s largest “AI hub” on a 600-acre site is coming up in Vishakhapatnam. LLM Models: Owned by Google; Chips: designed in California, fabricated in Taiwan; India’s Contribution: Land, Electricity, Construction, and Labour.

b. 30 years ago we celebrated IT labour services the same way. But we did not build the next layer of technology, did not invest in R&D and deep-tech, and did not develop manufacturing depth. Now the bill is coming due in the form of AI.

c. Worse than 30 Yrs Ago: This time the mistake India is making is with stronger lock-in to the foreign tech owners. For every inference running on a foreign LLM model from a server in Vizag, a small rent will go to California on infra built by Adani. Same game, worse rules.

d. India’s AI strategy can be summed up as follows: Acres of land, tons of concrete, and gigawatts of power for a foreign-owned data center. No industry investments in AI research, labs, and scientists.

e. India’s Attitude: Since we are not investing in frontier AI, we tell ourselves frontier AI does not matter. Since we are good at secondary work (AI diffusion or AI services), we tell ourselves diffusion is enough.

Endpiece

Between 2019 and 2025, the number of Indian billionaires grew by 77%, and their total wealth jumped by 227%. Now India has the world's highest number of billionaires per trillion dollars of GDP.

Meanwhile, for the middle and lower income populations, real wages stagnated in the last 10 years. No GDP growth happened in their households.

A bunch of self-serving oligarchs don’t make a developed economy.

@arabicatrader

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@jomalhotra @thetribunechd You should ask your neighbors why it's different this time if you have forgotten HOW MANY WEST BENGAL CITIZENS HAVE LOST THEIR LIVES DUE TO POLL VIOLENCE during TMC AND CPIM tenure. Have some courage to tell the truth; your opinion is biased and largely FALSE.@ShikhaMKol

[Mayur Kamble @mayurkamble9]

Section 245
This is India's biggest corporate governance scam in recent times, and 30th April is a very, very crucial date for this one. The case is that of India's first ever class action suit filed by minority investors against the promoters of Jindal Poly Films. #jindal #scam #fraud #jsw #stockmarketindia
@SEBI_India
.
https://t.co/buYcM9EknE

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@NeelKukreti Do not look at the equity return in isolation; focus on the entire portfolio return. Asset allocation is far more crucial than anything else.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@m1hirk It's only about incentive,
incentive and incentive, NOTHING ELESE.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@AmitDahal @goonereol IFBAgro had to shut down their distillery in West Bengal because they refused to pay KUTMONEY to TMC, only property development can flourish,as it's the easiest way to launder black money; no other businesses can stay.Bengal is in a severe anemic condition due to political whims.

[Sunil J @Sunilj22]

@Amani_Chowdhry A large part of the population of our country is prone to fall into the middle-income trap sooner than later (or may be already in?).