TazMan

#finsup

[TazMan @TAZTATE]

@BowTiedBroke 627

[Chris Kouffman @ckparrot]

Dolphins have so few resources this off season, but are intentionally placing the bulk of them in the most historically established pathway for outperforming expectations - QB and Run Game. It's old school. Spoiler: I'll be taking the OVER on Miami's win total in 2026.

Each year @JFowlerESPN does a survey of NFL executives who rank the top players at all positions. You end up with a list of top 10 players, honorable mentions, and also-mentions, maybe 20 to 30 players depending on the position, and it gives you a de facto feel for how respected each team's roster is in the eyes of the pros whose job it is to evaluate talent.

In 2023 the Dolphins had one of the top 5 most respected rosters in the NFL. Former GM Chris Grier was on top of the world. But that decayed over time, to barely top 10 in 2024, bottom 10 in 2025, and I'm quite certain when this year's surveys are in, Miami will be at or near the very bottom. This is why Grier is no longer Miami's GM.

There's actually a decent relationship between these survey results and follow-on win totals, particularly if you factor in something as basic as prior year win totals. Teams in the top 5 have averaged about 12 wins (playoffs included) over the last three seasons. And about half the teams in the bottom 5 go on to win 3 to 5 games. Not just bad, but REAL bad.

But it's not a perfect predictor, and that's important. Some of those bottom-feeders surprise with 7, 8, or 10 wins. A few others REALLY surprise by being among the best teams in the NFL.

Question is, do the over-performers share common ground? Yeah, they kind of do.

You see a lot of outperformance specifically at the QB position, whether it be a QB regarded to be "done" or "failed" having a bounce back year, or a relatively inexperienced/unknown QB making an unexpected splash.

Think about rookie performances nobody saw coming from CJ Stroud or Jayden Daniels, or a second year Drake Maye suddenly making a run at MVP.

But also think about a 35 year old Matt Stafford bouncing back from an injury-plagued, down year where the Rams only won 5 games. Or Russell Wilson going from that disastrous 5-win season in Denver that first year HC Nathaniel Hackett didn't even get to finish, to having a little bit of a bounce under Sean Payton. Think of Trevor Lawrence going from the butt of jokes to scoring 41 touchdowns this year.

I find it interesting a lot of the QBs who stewarded these over-performances (e.g. Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields) were dynamic, mobile guys who contributed strongly to renewed ground games, and how they and even their less-mobile colleagues benefited from offensive line revamps and newfound run religion.

It's a classic approach. Those who have watched decades of football will have seen a lot of teams widely disrespected from a pure talent standpoint outperforming with gritty, old school ball. Think Tony Sparano and Bill Parcells. Think Dave Wannstedt and Jimmy Johnson.

That's where the Dolphins find themselves. What is old is new again.

In an off season where the team is setting records for the size of their dead budget bloc, the only sizable contracts they've given out were to Malik Willis (another dynamic QB who forces defenses to play 11-on-11 ball) and RB De'Von Achane. They spent the #12 overall pick on a 352-pounder they plan to play at Left Guard.

And while we can't say how the story ends, whether the team will ever find itself "getting over the hump" so to speak, I think we do know how this very familiar story has a tendency to begin. Place your bets.

[Brian Baldinger @BaldyNFL]

.@MiamiDolphins @ffvmousvon_ congratulations on the 4 year contract extension; 35 TD's on 716 total touches scoring TD's about 1/20 touches. #phinsup #BaldysBreakdowns

[King of Phinland🐬👑 @KingOfPhinland]

They didn’t give us a single primetime game💀

[Tour Swings Tommy @TourSwingsTommy]

I could watch these Champions swing compilations all day.

So much more variance in their swings compared to PGA guys IMO.

Less “perfect” positions and more unique quirks.

A lot more relatable to the average golfer.

[RedWolf🐺 @RedWolfMMA]

8 years ago today 👀

Lyoto Machida ended his UFC run with one of the most infamous, vicious and respectful knockouts of all time when he sent Vitor Belfort's head into the rafters 💥

The sound on that when it lands 😭

[Kyle Porter @KylePorterNS]

Rory turns 37 today.

Here are some Rory-Tiger-Phil numbers on their 37th birthdays. PGA Tour + major championships only. All numbers from @DataGolf.

[Greg Creese @AquaCoralRep]

Per @TonyPauline the Patriots wanted to move up to select Trey Moore when the #Dolphins landed him in R5

[ESPN @espn]

THE PISTONS COME BACK FROM A 3-1 DEFICIT TO ADVANCE 🔥

Detroit gets it done in Game 7 for their first playoff series win since 2008!

[Phinhub @Phinhub]

Did the Dolphins get the STEAL of the Draft?! #Phinhub

[The List - Dolphins Podcast @TheListFinsPod]

Interesting parallel between two of Miami's top three picks drawn by @MoveTheSticks during Combine coverage:

"I think Chris Johnson has had the most important 40 time (of the DB group). The tape is really, really good and that was the question that exists.

What we saw yesterday with (Jacob) Rodriguez yesterday at the linebacker position, this is the corner version of that with Chris Johnson.

Really good tape, the question was how athletic and explosive is he? And man, Rodriguez answered that question yesterday and Chris Johnson has today."

Every box checked ✅🐬 #PhinsUp

[TazMan @TAZTATE]

@WingfieldNFL @Honorary_Titan Post the rep?

[The List - Dolphins Podcast @TheListFinsPod]

📹 @yougoodmuench on new Dolphins LB/S Kyle Louis at the Senior Bowl:

"He's been playing linebacker (in Mobile) at an extremely high level. He's so quick, he reacts so quickly, he closes so well.

You saw it today during team period, he knifes into the backfield."

#PhinsUp

[Rick Golfs @Top100Rick]

Peak Tiger Woods was truly superhuman.

330 yard carry 21 years ago.

2 decades of tech upgrades and still almost nobody can do this today.

Also few have the guts to take a lash like this. Bryson, Rory…most others don’t like to swing for the fences.

[Pete Prisco @PriscoCBS]

I really liked the Dolphins draft.

[Greg Creese @AquaCoralRep]

Just as a reminder, Sullivan worked the Cowboys to get Kevin Coleman Jr and Seydu Traore for free

That's low risk

[FinsXtra @FinsXtra]

🎥 Michael Robinson of NFL Gameday believes Miami Dolphins LB Jacob Rodriguez will win Defensive Rookie of the Year

"This dude is legit... I love this kid, I love what I saw on tape." (@nflnetwork) #PhinsUp

[Nick @NDS1089]

Dolphins are putting together a solid draft. Love what they did in rounds 2-4.

Jacob Rodriguez, Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, Trey Moore and Kyle Louis

[Lance Zierlein @LanceZierlein]

I really like the totality of what Miami Dolphins are doing with their draft. Smart, instinctive, productive players in several spots.