Henry Nothhaft, Jr.

Bloodstock and racing intelligence.
Founder, Thoroughbred Intelligence.
Owner & Breeder.
Partner, Insight Thoroughbred & Two H’s.
US • UK • AUS

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

I built a live Keeneland September pinhook tracker.

706 identified pinhooks. Prior sale, purchase price, buyer, consignor, September result, gross change, net calculator, and return multiple, all searchable.

I’ll keep updating it through the end of the sale.

https://t.co/Abg2Px9Cvo

#keesept #keeneland

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@thoroughbredAA Think I attended my first TOC workshop at Golden Gate Fields sometime around 2010. Why do you ask?

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

Book 4 turned out to be much more interesting than I expected. Higher prices finally came with better clearance, fillies accounted for most of the additional money, and the middle 50% outperformed the top of the market. And a stronger yearling market still produced some pretty tough pinhook economics.

https://t.co/rrNrK3amrr

@spendthriftfarm @WinStarFarm @LanesEndFarms #keesept #keeneland @keenelandsales

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

One of my favorite things about Keeneland September is that it gives us a pretty honest read on the commercial sire market.

A lot to unpack in this one.

#KEENLAND #KEESEPT #KEESEPT26 @keenelandsales @Three_Chimneys @spendthriftfarm @TaylorMadeSales

https://t.co/vjWQVNOrvJ

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

I'm building a Pinhook Tracker for the Fasig Tipton October Yearlings sale just like I did for Keeneland September. Sign up here to be notified when we go live.

#FTOCT #fasigtipton @FasigTiptonCo

https://t.co/yxThPXh5UK

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@novastables1 He’s great. I bought a Golden Pal filly last week. This list grades sires whose first crop are yearlings this year.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

Freshman sire season invites overreaction. One big yearling can make a stallion look hot.

Keeneland September gives us enough volume to see what the market really thinks.

I graded the class on price, liquidity, depth and how well each market held up across all six books.

See which sires made the grade.

@LanesEndFarms @coolmoreamerica @spendthriftfarm #keesept #keeneland @keenelandsales

https://t.co/hK6AJWC9l7

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@HawkstoneTB Thank you. Love your Substack.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@MachmerHall @jockeyclub @hisa_us I think you’re exactly right. The industry has an enormous amount of valuable data, but there’s still a big gap between having the data and turning it into tools that are genuinely useful to horse people. Really appreciate the encouragement.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

This is what we learned after tracking pinhooks for the past two weeks at Keeneland September.

#KEESEPT26 #KEESEPT #Keeneland #pinhooktracker

https://t.co/1fEkgZLvDN

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@jc_bradbury @profkakie Congratulations. Tremendous accomplishment. Pretty cool to have a tangible artifact of all of the hard work you put in.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

34.7% of the horses catalogued this year never completed a sale, withdrawn or bought back. In 2022 it was 28.6%.

Record prices at the top and a third of the catalog going home.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

1,280 distinct buyers signed tickets at Keeneland September in 2022. This year: 1,276.

#keeneland #KEESEPT26 #KEESEPT @keenelandsales

https://t.co/h8eySqXqsu

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

Seventy yearlings brought $1 million or more, producing $105.5 million of the $558.3 million total. Five sires supplied 54 of them: Gun Runner 15, Not This Time 12, Into Mischief 11, Flightline and Nyquist eight each.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

Carrie, I can’t tell you how much I appreciate that. I moved to Kentucky two years ago hoping to combine 20 years in tech, data and AI with my love of Thoroughbreds and find ways to make a positive impact on the industry. There are so many opportunities to innovate, and this little Pinhook project is really just scratching the surface. I’d love to compare notes sometime and would welcome any thoughts or advice you have.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@VanMeterSales Great meeting you out there!

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@wagsSC Thank you. That’s my plan.

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

Keeneland September has come and gone. Bittersweet. You plan and look forward all year, then it grinds you for two weeks, and when it's over you're already looking forward to next year.

The Pinhook Tracker now covers the entire sale. The data is provisional. Keeneland will keep posting updates and I'll sweep those in over the next few weeks.

This was a rewarding project. Thank you to everyone who supported the experiment, got the word out, and sent notes of encouragement.

Let's do it again for Fasig-Tipton October.

#KEESEPT #KEENELAND @keenelandsales #pinhooktracker

https://t.co/Abg2Px94FQ

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@jonfab05 Thanks!

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

Keeneland September Session 11 is in the books, and it produced the best pinhook returns of the sale.

42 offered, 35 sold, 83.3% clearance. A 1.76x median and 45.7% reaching 2x, both sale highs. $686,700 of purchase basis became $1,209,000.

34 pinhooks remain active for tomorrow's closing session. Dollar beers & dogs. See ya tomorrow.

#keeneland #keesept @keenelandsales

https://t.co/Abg2Px94FQ

[Henry Nothhaft, Jr. @TB_Intel]

@jonfab05 The expense calculator on the page enables you to do just that. And in many cases, you’re absolutely correct.