Talophex

Surgeon General of prediction market Twitter. Too liberal for the Deep South, too conservative for the PNW.

[Talophex @Talophex]

@PredMTrader @xK0neko I only put about 3% of the bankroll on him 😔

[Talophex @Talophex]

@cremieuxrecueil Meanwhile in anesthesiology:

[Talophex @Talophex]

The Polymarket on loss of Iranian control of the island is still only 4c for June, guess they’ll remain fiery but mostly peaceful oil terminals

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Explosions and active air defense engagement at Kharg Island, with preliminary reports of the US conducting strikes.

[Talophex @Talophex]

@luanalopeslara @Kalshi I’ll try thanks!

[Talophex @Talophex]

@Kalshi is there any way to make the app sort commodities markets by strike? they’re vomited out in an unordered list and I can’t find a setting to change it

[Talophex @Talophex]

@GaetenD Which is coincidentally also how Taylor describes her childhood

[Talophex @Talophex]

Trust me, American consumers would too man

[Vital Knowledge Media @knowledge_vital]

Greek shipping tycoon says he would rather pay a $200K/ship fee to Tehran than deal with the status quo in Hormuz - FT

[Talophex @Talophex]

@Domahhhh @Frosen The devil works hard but aenews works harder!

[Talophex @Talophex]

Iran peace talk reporters with a time machine: Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact increasingly strained by unverified reports of casualties in limited fighting around Stalingrad

[Talophex @Talophex]

My Kalshi conspiracy theory of the day: the app doesn’t actually take that long to load but it leaves the bright green screen up on purpose as a way to advertise the site to people around you

[Talophex @Talophex]

@CharlesDardaman @joannejang @bennpeifert I maybe wouldn’t copy-trade a guy who just melted his hedge fund

[Talophex @Talophex]

@EnergyCredit1 @institLPGP Yeah he famously has several gentlemen’s bets on Twitter where he is short OpenAI

[Talophex @Talophex]

@Kronogen @cremieuxrecueil I don’t have access to a computer or calculator right now but yes perfect 115 is too high, so drop it down to the correct value then find an expected +2.5 or whatever standard deviations above that value, an LLM can easily help if you don’t want to do it yourself.

[Talophex @Talophex]

@Kronogen @cremieuxrecueil Let’s back up a sec, what do you think is the median IQ (so 50th percentile) of a natural baby born to such parents? Whatever number you’re thinking, subtract like ten from it, that’s the real answer. NOW go back and using the std calculate a 99th percentile outcome.

[Talophex @Talophex]

@Kronogen @cremieuxrecueil Your question seems to imply (correct me if I’m wrong here) that a 130 IQ father and a 123 IQ mother should have a child with an IQ somewhere in the mid 120s range, this is a common misconception but false!

[Talophex @Talophex]

@ad0rnai @devahaz German-speaking countries as well, it’s extremely common, but yes most Americans have never even seen it

[Talophex @Talophex]

@Aella_Girl @mbeisen I’m a physician with research experience in an epigenetics lab and I’d bet a humongous amount of money the child will never test at an IQ anywhere close to what they’re implying

[Talophex @Talophex]

@GeneSmi96946389 @EternalLastGen A whole lot of words to just say no we’ve never seen it play out for real, got it.

[Talophex @Talophex]

@Nostroah @tradewithmaxx Careful now, “crossing state lines” is a sore spot with Wisconsin

[Talophex @Talophex]

@MartinShkreli It’s for people who price discover future event hedges too hard and too long, they’re the doctor you call for your four hour prediction market erection