TanukiResearch

Long-short generalist, on the literal beach, maybe looking for my next gig, shitposting ideas.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

🧵1/
A good business is not the same as a good stock.
That’s the core premise behind Tanuki Research — where I will try to post some decent longs and shorts from the literal beach.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@ClarkSquareCap @ACapitalLP 🙏🙏 I posted SHC but love the NCMI idea too! Actually think it’s better but I focus on larger cap

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@ClarkSquareCap $shc PE overhang now gone, litigation mostly behind them. Medical device sterilization duopoly. Capex falling, pricing gains and outsourcing going to accelerate in response to more stringent requirements. Fcf inflection coming, guidance very conservative. 15x earnings vs STE 25x

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@joinyellowbrick I think they won a massive defense helicopter deal (FLRAA) a few years ago that should just be starting to inflect soon iirc. Haven’t looked at it in a while.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@MrMojoRisinX Believe they are de-listing them, so forced sellers?

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@Challenger_ST Thanks!

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

This escalated quickly $thr

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

$THR. Thermon is a niche duopoly in thermal solutions that’s moved beyond O&G into better end markets. Trades ~13x unlevered earnings, ~$1B EV, under-levered, and about to lap temporary headwinds. Rerate + M&A optionality.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@fcfyplusg lol how on earth did you find this? I forgot I even tweeted it. I wish I had made money on it.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@contralculator Ha thanks. Sadly I set out to start a short-selling blog, came across a fun long idea, didn’t really pump it for the clicks and just owned a bit in my tiny PA. Womp womp.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@Tintincapital PRSU is very nice and pretty cheap. Worth a look IMO.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@Justa_Lad Super helpful, thanks. I love these larger cap, less controversial, kinder inevitable loser type shorts.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@DannyOcean555 I think you’re dead on. AI winner + cheap busted IPO.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@riley_ngg Thanks!

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

$THR. Thermon is a niche duopoly in thermal solutions that’s moved beyond O&G into better end markets. Trades ~13x unlevered earnings, ~$1B EV, under-levered, and about to lap temporary headwinds. Rerate + M&A optionality.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@RealJimChanos @PatrickMoorhead @ClayMagouyrk Obviously if this is the case, the annual expenses should be lumpier/more front weighted

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@RealJimChanos @PatrickMoorhead @ClayMagouyrk The slide seems to imply the data center and compute costs are in the 39bn of costs, but that feels….wrong? Given others talk about 50bn to stand up a GW? And then opex on top of it?

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@AggieCapitalist CD&R and PIF just bought BASF’s inferior coatings biz for a price that implies $AXTA at 50-60, it’s like 27 🤷‍♂️

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@AggieCapitalist CD&R and PIF just bought BASF’s inferior coatings biz for a price that implies $AXTA at 50-60, it’s like 27 🤷‍♂️

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

*taps sign*
If you really get cynical, they’re good longs….as long as you can move your feet

[Laputa @fcfyplusg]

One dynamic w shorting that eventually humbles everyone is that a bad co (fraud/cyclical/fad/etc) going up in price w deteriorating fundamentals is often not a good short. This is sort of not intuitive and not the inverse of how longs work lol, just a different game entirely

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

"There's old short-sellers and there's bold short-sellers. There's no old bold shortsellers. "

-my old PM smugly explaining why all his friends were no longer in the business as he grinded me to death over my 15 80bp short positions at a time

[Upslope Capital @UpslopeCapital]

I think most people think of "small" sizing for shorts as ~LSD%. In reality, 10-50 bps is reasonable sizing for fraudy/promote shorts.

More importantly though, it's an awful idea to get involved with these types if it's not your day job.

[TanukiResearch @TanukiResearch]

@MrMojoRisinX i feel like you would have a good take roasting me here