Terminal

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

https://t.co/a6iT1F2Sqf

[Scott Goodwin @skgoodwin23]

Spending a week with my family and working most of it! Being a few hours ahead of US markets has given me some time to digest a lot of incredible markets discourse on X - there is too much to try and consume about AI but not enough about leverage. We are seeing a classic head hunt of the most levered players in the equity and convert market re AI globally. Hyperscaler and associated credit spreads in IG are wider as they should be (portfolio construction by notional and duration matter in credit because we don’t have the payout that equity does) and debt is being added to compute and power as another constraint on the AI theme. Govt regulation remains a massive wildcard but a longer cycle isn’t necessary a worse one. I would look for the forced sellers of assets trading at or below contract value with counterparties you feel good about that have positive optionality on growth opportunities. Think about the impact on spot and next 1-2 year curves for compute, power, and shell - those who are long and don’t need financing + can term out contracts now are materially advantaged. If this is the whole cycle being elongated and the curve flattened there are a lot of interesting securities to buy from forced sellers. More time for competition and technology to emerge in the intermediate term isn’t necessarily a bad thing for many infrastructure assets. I started my career in the middle of the early 2000s telecom cycle - Nortel, Lucent, Cisco, etc were financing their customers. There have been some very astute comments on this platform from people who understand the AI echosystem far better than I do about Nvidia and Broadcoms business model decision to become the working capital bank of the AI build - bridging the industry to revenue and cash flow. My sense is the focus in credit markets right now is too much on Meta Google Amazon etc and not enough on that business model change which liquifies the compute roll out in the near term and shifts the credit risk to those large semiconductor companies. It’s fun to seeing liquidity having a price again and god forbid IG companies cost of debt having to compete with their cost to equity.

[DHH @dhh]

He can't keep getting away with being right!!

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

Basic 2-page stock memo template for ppl to use -- this is version 3.0 or 4.0 since the first one in Summer 2025

Note: this is 100% art, no science. My opinion is just one of many. I will link to the Paragon short pitch though below as I think it's a good "aspirational" 2 pager.

(1/3)

Here is what I think is a clean format.

PAGE ONE:

--summary dash (takes up first 50% of page.
--investment thesis in 3-5 bulletpoints
--event path, exit px target, valuation, r/r, base/bull/bear.

You can see below that fit should fit CLEANLY and not look cramped. Majority numbers. Very little words.

To me thats a great flow for page one. All the #'s are in the dash, then "here's the setup" and here's the path to getting paid over next 1-8 quarters.

Don't copy my text too precisely, I bet there's typos, its gobbledygook - its just there as a very loose guide for what you want to be talking about.

So right there, PAGE ONE, that's like 90% of a pitch. Before the mf turns to page two, he's gonna be interested, or he's gonna say "this shit sucks."

It should make clear: Here's the stock today, based on P/E * EPS. Here's where I see EPS for FY2, and here's where I see P/E going as my above FY2 EPS becomes consensus. Price target upside 30% base, then some quick bull/bear flexing for r/r.

PAGE TWO:

I left this wide open for the most part. Chances are, you wrote 10-15 pages on this shit. This page two should be where you take the BEST OF THE BEST, from those 15 pages, and cram it into one page.

I gave ideas, but there is no right or wrong.

Remember: In the Paragon pitch, there is no headers, nothing. He just came with 4 paragraphs of text on page 1, 4 paragraphs of text on page two, and bang, that shit was a wrap.

So, I'm posting this because people send me a lot of really badly formatted pitches, just 8 pages of straight text.

I am a nice guy, generally. But I have met 200-300 "Dickhead PM's." I am fluent in Dickhead PM voice. I know exactly where in your pitch the DPM will say "LOL this is trash, get the fuck out of my office."

So your pages 1-2 need to be absolute lightning. That's what I'm trying to emphasize. Pages 3 to 30 will be in the shredder if pages 1-2 suck.

But some mix of these (esp page 2), should be enough to make the pitch. Remember, a pitch is a 90-120 second exercise. If you can't get it done in that time, if they aren't interetsed in 90 secs, your pitch is trash or its too verbose. So keep shrinking it.

I will post links to Paragon below just so you can see that "2 pages is too small wahhh" - no, its not, that motherfucker did in 2 pages what wouldve taken you 20. So its possible.

Going forward, I am just going to reply to most DM's with this post, and say "dude, you gotta condense it more -- too many words -- not enough numbers." Because the Dickhead PM is not gonna make it to page 3 if pages 1-2 are trash.

If I sound like a hardass, well, its better that you get dunked on by some random internet loser, than face-to-face for a pod seat that would change your life.

HTH, and again, if anyone else (professional) has a better format, please post your 2-pagers directly below this. I am not an authroity and I am constantly tweaking these formats because I've found them using them in private/SMB/operating roles as well. So its a lifelong exercise.

END

Good luck pitching,
GB

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

This is how to sell a private credit loan "at par" without anyone paying par:

Imagine you're a semi-liquid fund facing redemptions. Your PC loans are marked at 100 annd selling lower would re-rate the portfolio.

So instead, you sell a strip at par to an SPV backed by a secondaries buyer. Let's say $500MM. The headline price shows 100.

But the buyer doesn't wire $500M day 1. They pay $250M now and then $250M in a year. But they collect interest on the full strip from day 1.

Discount the deferred remaining payment and the create px is actually in the low 90s. Everyone else sees par because that's what the seller announced.

Nice and easy.

[Spencer Walsh @thespencerwalsh]

So far Q2 temp check is looking quite healthy:

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

There are going to be riots when this is eaten by the taxpayers. Riots.

[Terminal @Terminalog]

@gregoryblotnick Super helpful! Thanks a lot!

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

this is a really good tweet...not all books are equal.

one book written by a true polymath = 100 books, maybe even 500 or 1000.

I can only think of three, bc minds like those, you only get a few of them each century... ones that are genius-level in EVERY arena: literature, science, history, physics, philosophy, human nature, love, art, music, theology.

if you and me devoted our entire lives to just one of those, we'd be unlikely to get there. its really the combo of science + art + a deep understanding of human nature, that you NEVER come across in one soul.

the books are one thing -- its more just absorbing the worldview of someone who, in ~30 years of life, somehow uploaded 10,000 years of knowledge/wisdom into their head.

a true polymath transports you across time and space, fluent in all subjects of all eras, as they connect ideas, individuals, and eternal truths of the human condition in ways that are otherwise inaccessible...the ability to tie it all together is what instantly cements them as one of history's greatest thinkers.

1. Schopenhauer's "World as Will and Representation"
2. Will Durant's "Story of Civilization" (Series)
3. Bertrand Russell's "History of Western Philosophy"

all can be thick/dense, which is to be expected of any 1000-book book

other names that get tossed around are Goethe, Nietzsche, Shakespeare, Voltaire, Rousseau, prob others...but none have a singular work I'd direct you to.

in the modern era, no man or woman exists who belongs in the same breath as any of these ppl.

bonus recs/10-book books:
-Seneca's "Moral Letters to Lucilius"
-Montaigne's "Essays"
-Plutarch's "Moralia"
-Emerson - "Self-Reliance and Other Essays"
-Pascal's "Pensees"
-Francis Bacon's "Essays"
-Lord Chesterfield's "Letters"
-La Rochefoucauld's "Maxims"
-Balzac - Lost Illusions
-Tolstoy - A Confession
-Erasmus - Adagia
-Samuel Johnson - Rasselas

and for good measure...King Solomon - The Book of Ecclesiastes.

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

https://t.co/AiozzKsUBr

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

https://t.co/MGTRYQxPWK

[Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1]

Reminds me of forced selling in credit markets where securities tank but value remains intact. Some of my best days were riding out the technicals and holding/ adding through the dislocation.

[Paul Enright @pmje73]

I use four different AI tools. Playing with NotebookLM to create one pagers from my raw rambling notes I sometimes tweet is the one were I actually have the most creative fun. Are there better tools?
This is an example.

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Everyone loves to say high yield spreads are historically tight (they are).

But look at the underlying composition. BBs are 50%+ of the index now.

The junkier stuff migrated to private credit.

[Terminal @Terminalog]

@Christi60805497 @gregoryblotnick how so?

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

https://t.co/rvujDVRZIJ

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

this stock pitch is pretty close to 10/10 imo, from VIC

Short - Paragon Offshore by Biffins (2014)

2 pages, thats how long these should be. and u know why its so short?...because he knows this motherfucker COLD.

"IPO to Chapter 11" speedrun hall of fame.. 6 months?

smoked it

[Dima Krasheninnikov @dmkrash]

1/ How much do gender ratios affect dating? Even more than you think! In my simulation, 11% ratio diff means a 99th-percentile woman moving London → Bay Area can match w someone 50% rarer (1-in-92 → 1-in-136). But 99th-pctile men get matches 33% less rare (1-in-108 → 1-in-73)