theelkingt◎nway.eth 🦣 ᯅ

TradFi turned degen PM | crypto, tech investor | #btc | #eth | #sol | #tia | #nvda | #open | oxford comma advocate | crypto, nvda since 2016 | ᯅ | NFA, DYOR

[theelkingt◎nway.eth 🦣 ᯅ @theelkingtonway]

"If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid." –Epictetus

[theelkingt◎nway.eth 🦣 ᯅ @theelkingtonway]

Solid write-up of the current situation. I particularly like @jeffye888’s rates comments.

The biggest thing working in $OPEN’s favor amid the current environment is the national rollout of Opendoor Mortgages, particularly as rates creep toward 7%+. This could push more people toward Opendoor that otherwise might not have considered it.

[Jeffrey Ye @jeffye888]

https://t.co/TD4jDVYhgB

[Marco Foster @MarcoFoster_]

Hunter Biden: “I look at Zohran Mamdani and I go: there’s a leader. He made promises and you know what he did? He kept them. He’s lowering rent, he’s building co-op grocery stores, pre-kindergarten. That’s all people care about. He’s really, really good”

[Za @ZaStocks]

The best time to own a growth stock is when it’s expensive and nobody believes in the thesis.

Not when everyone is clamoring about how cheap it is.

[Redacted @RedactedNews]

NSA WHISTLEBLOWER: FLOCK CAMERAS ARE BUILDING A 24/7 SURVEILLANCE GRID

NSA whistleblower Thomas Drake is warning that Flock cameras are not just “crime‑fighting tools”; they are the backbone of a growing surveillance ecosystem designed to track the movements of ordinary citizens in real time.

By outsourcing this infrastructure to private companies, governments can sidestep constitutional limits and claim they’re merely “buying a product,” even as they gain full ability to monitor entire populations.

This network doesn’t stop at license plates. With technologies that can detect Bluetooth and other wireless signals, your car’s plate, your phone, your smartwatch, and other devices all become beacons.

Together, they feed into systems that can build detailed profiles of where you drive, who you visit, which events you attend, and how you move through your city. All data that can then be stored, queried, and shared far beyond your local police department.

@Thomas_Drake1 breaks down how these converging signals- license plate readers, Bluetooth and wireless transmissions, in‑vehicle communication systems, and more create a de facto tracking system on every American.

And when that system is run through private corporations instead of directly by government, it opens a dangerous backdoor: the unlimited power to quietly misuse this data, with far less oversight and far fewer constitutional protections than most people realize.

[Darth Powell @VladTheInflator]

Sure doesn't seem like Flock likes being monitored or surveilled

[Alvin @Alvin1492840]

A guy bought a $1,500 Samsung TV 3 years ago.

He watched Netflix. He watched YouTube. He thought the picture looked fine. He assumed that's just what a TV looks like.

His friend, a home theater installer who calibrates TVs for a living, walked into his apartment and looked at the screen for 5 seconds.

"You're watching everything in demo mode. The motion smoothing is on. The eco dimmer is cutting your brightness by 40%. Your TV is taking a screenshot of your screen every 30 seconds and selling your viewing data to advertisers. And you're watching a $1,500 panel in the same picture mode Best Buy uses under fluorescent lights to make TVs pop on a showroom wall."
He changed 9 settings in 12 minutes.

The picture looked like a different television. The soap opera effect disappeared. The colors became natural. The TV stopped spying on him.
Here's every setting he changed 🧵

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

> Don't be Intuit
> Spend 20 years lobbying Congress so Americans can't file taxes for free
> IRS Direct File finally dies, pop champagne, moat secured!
> Perplexity drops an AI tax agent three weeks later that reads your W-2 for the price of a chatbot subscription
> ChatGPT explains your 1099 better than the $209 "Deluxe" tier

> Intuit response: open a physical TurboTax store in Soho!
> Yes, a retail store...for tax software...in 2026
> Announce we'll pay for your Uber to come do taxes in person
> CFO on earnings call: "customers buy confidence, not code"
> Stock drops 20% during the call = most confident -20% you've ever seen
> Five year low, congrats to everyone who bought the AI story at $700

> Strategy update: deliberately letting DIY customers leave
> Translation: the ones who noticed "free" wasn't free
> QuickBooks pivot: "usage-based pricing," aka the meter now runs while you cry
> Mailchimp, purchased for $12B, currently held together with tape and apology emails
> Flagship innovation: AI that finds deductions, then upsells you a human to check the AI
> The human costs extra, the AI costs extra, the extra costs extra
> Board response: raise prices, issue $1.75B in bonds, add "agentic" to every press release
> Mention "AI" over 100 times during earnings call
> Meanwhile, somewhere an accountant with a Claude subscription does your tax return in 15 minutes for $50

[Founder With ADHD @founderwithadhd]

THE RADICAL BLUEPRINT FOR EBITDA BREAK-EVEN 🚀

"Do not come back until there's a plan to break the company even."

Opendoor Technologies CEO Kaz Nejatian details how the leadership team built an aggressive operational playbook to steer properties back to a positive net income trajectory.

[Kaz Nejatian @nejatian]

This is, in fact, the job.

[Home Loan Bill @HomeLoanBill]

“Foreclosures are rising!!!” 🥱🥱🥱

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

this chart goes back to 1972 and has never printed this number

The 3-week realized vol of the momentum factor is now 4x the vol of the S&P 500. Not 1997, not 2000, not 2008, not the 2021 unwind. Never.

Translation: the index is quiet while the stocks inside it swing like it's a crisis. Winners get dumped, losers get squeezed, and the rotation eats momentum traders alive.

When maximum churn meets minimum index movement, someone is handing over a lot of shares. Distribution rarely announces itself louder than this.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Something broke in the momentum trade

Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket peaked on June 22. Three weeks later it's down 32.8%. The only comparable unwind in this chart's history: late 2021, minus 34.2%, right before the 2022 bear market.

The surface looks calm. The index barely moves. But underneath, the hottest stocks of this cycle are getting liquidated at 2021 speed. Gamma squeezes in the morning, air pockets in the afternoon, violent rotation all day long.

Indexes tell you the weather. Factor baskets tell you what's actually happening.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

For markets, it's possible that the "Moonshot moment" doesn't play out the same way as DeepSeek did early last year.

In today's newsletter, I wrote about why the Jevons Paradox logic may be different this time, in part because of how much the industry has changed in 18 months.

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

We're beginning to see the first meaningful signs of market pressure extending beyond the technology sector as more stocks succumb to the stealth correction. Many of the market's strongest leaders have rapidly become its weakest performers. $SNDK is now down 43% from its high reached just 14 trading days ago, $SPCX has declined more than 45% and continues to accelerate lower this morning, $GLW has surrendered over 40%, and $NFLX has officially become a 50/80 stock, falling more than 50% from its peak. Our $CELC Short Alert on 7/13 proved to be timely.

Some of our strongest performers still holding up well with double-digit gains include: $MATX, $PACS, $CRWD, $MNST, $ADM (which we bumped up yesterday).

Despite the growing weakness beneath the surface, our Open Positions continue to show relative strength, with several names still posting double-digit gains and holding up well. New positions should be given enough room to fluctuate normally, but don't let complacency creep into profitable trades. I wouldn't indiscriminately head for the exits, but this is an environment where tightening stops, protecting gains, and managing risk become increasingly important.

Geopolitical uncertainty is adding another layer of complexity. The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded beyond strictly military targets, fueling concerns that hostilities could escalate into a broader regional war. With no agreement reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the market remains sensitive to the possibility of energy supply disruptions and a renewed inflationary impulse.

One encouraging development is that, despite the recent surge, crude oil remains well below its prior highs. We've seen Middle East headlines create sharp swings in sentiment before, yet quality leadership stocks have generally continued to act well. That remains the key. As long as leading stocks continue to build constructive patterns and respect support, the market deserves the benefit of the doubt.

A meaningful deterioration in leadership or a decisive change in price and volume character would warrant a more defensive posture.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Failure to maintain a complex, healthy food supply chain has got to be one of the biggest red flags for civilizational decline https://t.co/vIYZ0Yxcrd

[Orwell Day @OrwellDay]

Patriot shows Flock cameras track him and his PHONE as he walks by

Flock emits Blue Tooth signal for phone connection and tracking

[HustleBitch @HustleBitch_]

🚨 FLOCK JUST GOT CAUGHT BY A REPORTER — THEIR CAMERAS ARE SECRETLY TRACKING PEOPLE IN REAL TIME

"You're saying Flock does not track people, correct?"

A Flock representative tried to deny it.

But then they showed the Condor camera — the one designed to literally follow your movements in real time.

No matter which way you move, the camera moves with you.

And that's not all.

These cameras can zoom in on your phone screen to see what you're looking at, recognize faces, and pull up personal details in minutes using commercial facial recognition.

One example: They tracked a couple arguing at a street market and within two minutes knew one just finished medical school and the other has chronic IBS.

Cops are openly bragging that "you can't get a breath of fresh air in or out without us knowing."

They said it was just for license plates.

This is full-blown surveillance, and it's already everywhere.

Should Flock's Condor cameras be allowed to track people in real time?

[Leah Goodridge @leahfrombklyn]

I respect WIRED so much.

Tech companies are FUMING because they thought it would be positive PR for their products.

Instead WIRED is publishing articles which expose the downsides of AI and tech surveillance. And now they’re getting sued for it. Support them!

[Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily @bluechipdaily]

Not buying into downtrends is one of the most valuable skills that traders and investors need to develop.

In 2000-2003, I watched people go broke trying to buy all the way down.

I don't mind getting stopped out when I buy a good chart, but I'm not digging my way into a hole trying to find the lows.

Not saying that this is 2000-2003 at all, but I learned lessons then in what not to do, that stay with me today.

Define your risk at the buy, learn to accept being wrong in trades and keep losses in check.

[Arena.ai @arena]

Big news: Kimi-K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is now #1 in the Frontend Code Arena with 1679 pts, surpassing Claude Fable 5.

This is a 17-place jump from Kimi-k2.6 (#18 -> #1).

In Frontend, Kimi-K3 ranked #1 in 6 of 7 domains: Brand & Marketing, Reference-Based Design, Data & Analytics, Consumer Product, Simulations, and Content Creation Tools, landing #2 only in Gaming behind Fable 5.

The full model weights will be released by July 27.

Congrats to the @Kimi_Moonshot team on this major milestone!