Dennis B

Inquisitive, sceptical & practical. Energy transition fan and hopeful humanist with a Masters of Strategic Foresight. Ex-Army.

[Gary Bohm @GaryBohm5]

The relationship between expanding money supply and precious metals is rooted in basic economic theory. The Quantity Theory of Money dictates that when the supply of fiat currency increases significantly while the supply of goods and hard assets remains relatively fixed, the price of those assets must rise in nominal terms. Gold and silver are the ultimate expressions of this dynamic. Their physical supply grows at a very slow, predictable rate determined by global mining output, making them highly sensitive to fiat currency debasement. Empirical evidence strongly supports this theoretical link. Historical data demonstrates that gold prices have broadly tracked M2 growth since the abandonment of the gold standard in the early 1970s.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

At some point you have to take a step back and reflect on the insanity of the Albanese government.

We are in our 5th year of rental crisis and many Australians are suffering horribly for it.

Yet the government continues to pursue settings that keep things this way.

[Dr Richard Hirschson @richardhirschs1]

Bookmark this, read it twice, the ‘DEPRESSION AUSTRALIA HAD TO HAVE’ is coming.

⚠️Australia is heading for a catastrophic Stagflationary collapse. Both the economy and the property markets will crash, people will go hungry.

✴️The RBA will likely raise interest rates on Tuesday into:
-Consumer confidence at an all time low.
-Property auction clearance rates at all time lows.
-Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne already falling.
-And supply chain disruptions are still coming.

✴️Australia imports more diesel and fertiliser per capita than any other developed nation, and we exist at the end of the world’s longest supply chain. The Middle East war/closure of the straits of Hormuz shock is heading our way, with a delay.

✴️No fertilizer➡️No crops➡️No food.
No diesel➡️No transportation.

✴️Economic activity is energy converted.
No energy=no economy.

✴️Consumer spending is about to fall off a cliff, and soon there will be little to buy anyways as supply chains crumble.

✴️Australia’s cost of living crisis is about to morph into a scarcity crisis.

✴️We are heading into a bankruptcy cycle for the ages, and Australia is about the have the the ‘depression it had to have’. Fiscal and monetary policy are ineffective in supply side crises.

✴️Many global governments will fall due to this crisis, Australia is likely to be one of them. We are being reassured by Albanese as we approach the cliff.

https://t.co/rz4PD7zuwP

#Stagflation
@AvidCommentator @DFA_Analyst

[Ben Robson @brobson_politic]

Dear Australians,

You are not experiencing a cost of living crisis, you are experiencing a cost of government crisis.

The hallmark of EVERY socialist regime, in history, around the world, has been high inflation.

If the calculated inflation rate is nearing 5%, then the actual inflation rate is more likely closer to 7% or more. This inflation is (almost) entirely driven by government policies: money printing, high taxation, high regulation, high-debt, preventing supply (over-regulation), ramping up demand (immigration).

If actual inflation is at 7%, it means that the price of everything is doubling every ~10.5 years. A house valued at $1mil today will be $2mil in 2037. A $2 7-Eleven cup of coffee will be $4 in 2037. A $150 purchase of petrol will be $300 in 2037.

https://t.co/nlidkfMnBr

[‘it’s a supply issue’ @nascentjude]

@PaulineHansonOz @MelissaVla40400 Never before in Australian history, has a PM intentionally run policies that make his own people homeless

Strong leaders with a sense of national pride should do the opposite - put Australians first

He is by far, the worst PM this country has ever seen. A traitor.

[alpha man @alphaman_111]

On day 1 of my high school history class, our professor got up and said

You are 15 or 16 years old. 200 years ago people your age were married, planted crops, had children, and built a cabin by winter. You can do your homework. The bar set for you historically is embarrassingly low. You are not dealing with regional famine or plague. You do not have to save your family from marauders or go into battle to destroy your enemies. You have to sit down and learn from someone who cares about you in a safe, air-conditioned room. You have no excuses.

[Bill @signifer111]

@MichaelPascoe01 @RizviAbul Ah yes, doubling the rate of immigration is just fine, no need to be concerned about the impact on renters, jobless youth, the environment. But we cant possibly cut immigration or 😱 the backlash!

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

🚨 The World Uncertainty Index just reached a new all time high

Higher than Covid. Higher than 9/11. Higher than the 2008 financial crisis.

[Rational Aussie @rationalaussie]

Honestly, I think this is the beginning of the end for the Australian Property Ponzi Scheme.

This energy supply shock is unprecedented and will cause massive inflation, at the same time job losses triggered by AI are just beginning.

Who wants to square that circle?

Are they going to raise rates and bankrupt home owners, or print money and subsidise the Ponzi scheme?

How much money will they have to print to plug that hole?

The RBA will probably play with the one tool in their toolbox and increases rates, but eventually the government will see the crisis unfolding and end up subsidising home owners and renters with fake printed currency.

Nominally house prices might even go up, but in real terms they'll go backwards.

It's over.

There's no coming back from the series of events that now seem to be in motion.

Who the FK is retarded enough to spend a million bucks on a dogbox in this environment?

We are an economy built on quick sand.

Massive change is on the horizon.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Is immigration a factor in high housing prices?

RBA modelling says yes.

Is high migration a factor in falling real wages?

RBA research again says yes, due to "dilution" of wage growth pressures.

Sources:
https://t.co/diCX07zRDd

https://t.co/OG0UOGkGrD

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

A government agency has stated we dont have enough homes and that things are going to get worse for the remainder of the decade.

Others in the private sector (AMP, KPMG) have even more dire estimates.

Yet government continues on the same path and there is a never ending wave of people defending the status quo.

I dont understand how this isnt a scandal, how the needless hardship placed on millions is somehow totally fine.

Even if you accept the idea that this is all one giant trade off, then the people being made to suffer should be told and allowed to have input on that choice.

This makes a shameful mockery of democracy and its sad more people dont see that.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Imagine that, dramatically lower migration and lower housing prices boosts the share of first home buyers buying properties....

[Chris Richardson @ChrisEconomist]

CANBERRA, WE HAVE A PROBLEM

The cost forecasting in the budget is getting a lot worse.

How bad is it? The budget update issued just ahead of Christmas added another $47.8bn to government spending.

That is the equivalent of doubling last year’s NDIS costs. We’re talking really big bucks here.

That $47.8bn wasn’t because the economic or revenue forecasts had been revised. The cost estimates are separately updated for new forecasts for jobs and joblessness, prices and wages, interest and exchange rates, and also for new GST estimates (because any changes there are passed onto the states).

And nor was it because of new policies – they’re also separately accounted for.

Rather, the extra $47.8bn that we’re spending is simply because existing policies are now expected to be more expensive than earlier thought.

The cost forecasts of the feds used to be pretty accurate. In the six years before COVID these revisions averaged $0.7 billion.

Then COVID threw a spanner in the works. Every time the government updated the budget, it added an average of $3.0 billion to expected costs.

Still, the ravages of COVID are long since in the rearview mirror, so you’d hope those forecasting errors shrunk again.

But, as the chart shows, they didn’t. There have been seven budget updates since late 2022, and they’ve revealed errors that average $18.4 billion. And now the latest cost revision has weighed in at $47.8 billion more than had been expected at the 2025-26 budget.

The bottom line? It is long past time for an overhaul of our budget rules, reporting and forecasting. They are all being badly abused: we’re being taken for mugs.

And unless and until we hold our politicians to a higher standard, then maybe we deserve to be …

[Miss Madeleine @MadsMelbourne]

The two Bondi shooters weren’t members of a hate group and they didn’t participate in hate speech in public or online. They were however on a terrorist watch list and out intelligence agencies failed to watch them.

Rather than push 200 pages of new laws which remove freedoms from all Australians, one simple law would prevent an attack like this from occurring again,

DON’T LET PEOPLE ON A TERRORIST WATCH LIST TO HAVE A GUN LICENCE AND OWN GUNS

IF ASIO and the AFP can’t stop a person on a terrorist watch list from owning guns then they won’t be able to stop a person on a hate group list from owning one either. The responsibility should be on them not on us!

Simple

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

The idea that we or anyone else needs to maintain a migration intake at 2x or more the developed world average and simply lament the lack of infrastructure and housing is just stupid.

And goodnight to you all 🙏

[Dr. Simon @goddek]

Have you ever noticed that governments all over the world only keep adding more restrictions, and never more freedoms for citizens?

[ZUBY: @ZubyMusic]

The best governments in the world do two things well.

1. Maintain basic law and order
2. Leave you alone

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Currently reading a paper on 1950s housing policy.

One of the conclusions 76 years ago?

Keep homes cheap and accessible for young people, the birth rate will be higher than otherwise and you need fewer migrants.

Government continues to wilfully fumble the obvious.

[vittorio @IterIntellectus]

> be microplastics researcher 2015
> develop better detection method
> can see particles 10x smaller than before
> run samples
> counts 100x higher than previous estimates
> publish
> conclusion: "more research needed"
> funding expires

> be different researcher 2020
> even better detection
> same samples
> counts higher still
> publish
> grant rejected: "not novel"

> be researcher 2024
> can now detect nanoplastics
> counts astronomical
> particles in brain tissue, testes, placentas
> concentrations increasing decade over decade
> publish
> industry response: "correlation not causation"
> plastic production: up 4%

every improvement in measurement finds worse news. thats not uncertainty. thats the answer

[The Noticer @NoticerNews]

Disgraced ex-Labor MP Craig Thomson, who was once caught spending union funds on prostitutes, has been jailed over a multi-million dollar migration fraud scheme and for scamming Covid payments.

https://t.co/eF5L6ZxSmG