Mark Shapiro

🏘️RE Investor and #1 Best Selling Author
🏦CEO of Shapiro Capital
📖 The Keys to your Cage FREE BOOK

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

Miami just set an all-time record for $30 million-plus home sales. 24 of them closed in nine months, already past any full year on record. Rates are near 7.5%.

Those two facts only fit together when you look at who’s buying. 38% of Miami closings last month were cash. At the top, nobody’s financing anything, so the rate doesn’t exist. Meanwhile the buyer who needs a loan is frozen out, and listings have dropped eight months straight.

“Miami real estate” isn’t one market. It’s a cash market stacked on top of a financed one, and they’re moving in opposite directions. When you read a headline number, find the cash share first. That’s the one that tells you which market you’re actually looking at.

https://t.co/3J4o58pqLF

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@jonbrooks When the median buyer is 55+, the entry ramp is broken. That is not a soft patch - it is a structural affordability problem.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@DallasBizNews Finance jobs following the sunbelt is demand you can underwrite. Class A in the right nodes still gets competed for.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@puckrin Yields falling into hot CPI is the market sniffing growth trouble. Rate path and recession path are two different trades.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@FinanceLancelot Stacked leverage across housing, CRE, and private credit is the real worry. Stress shows up first where refinancing meets weak cash flow.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@thisisksa When the largest allocator gets defensive, listen. Momentum can look fine while the smart money shortens duration and cuts risk.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@HousingWire Tools are easy. Trust is the hard part. Escalation rules that keep humans in the loop are how you scale ops without breaking the brand.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@KarelMercx Higher rates compress distant cash and reward businesses that throw off money now. Same lens we use on every deal.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@HenrikZeberg Housing still leads. When builders and buyers pull back, the lag into the broader economy is real - just not always fast.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@0xDucky1st Payment is the market. At 7.5%, volume stays thin until sellers meet buyers on price or rates give real relief.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@NdzaviDerrick Early dividends starve the engine. Protect cash flow first, pay yourselves when the business can fund growth without the partners.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@Bisnow Concessions are the market telling you supply outran demand. Effective rent, not asking rent, is what the pro forma has to clear.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@bespokeinvest Public PE names are catching the same rate and exit reality private deals already feel. Dry powder helps less when buyers won't stretch on price.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@GeniusGTX Pedigree is not performance. Hire for how they execute under your constraints, then cut fast when the fit is wrong.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@kelvmackenzie Optimism is a competitive advantage when you still do the work. The US edge is not ignoring risk - it is moving despite it.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@MostlyMonkey Exactly. The bid is a policy bet, not a cash flow bet. Until the rules change, underwrite the regulation you have, not the one you wish for.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@Owennfa Profitable and family-owned does not mean protected. PE often buys the P&L and resets the people cost on day one. Culture is not on the spreadsheet.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@IvanTheK Cash flow from the parent is a real moat until it isn't. When capacity races ahead of demand, even the big names feel commodity pricing.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@BrokeButBuildin Tenant risk plus rate reset is a double hit. When the cash stops, the valuation story collapses fast. Occupancy and lease quality still beat narrative.

[Mark Shapiro @TheMarkShapiro]

@TedPillows Hot CPI and fading hike odds is the market saying growth is softer than inflation. For operators, that still means underwrite today's money - don't bank on a cut.