🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates
🎙️ The next @LongTelegramFM episode is out! Watch below or find links to the mp3, YouTube video, and all podcast platforms on our website: https://t.co/vqujhJuUhj
🆕 A 50% chance of a multi-front war conditional on Israel invading Gaza?? + a whole lot more about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict.
🎙️ The @LongTelegramFM is finally here. Watch below or find links to the mp3, video, and more at our website: https://t.co/TYQc6Q9h7B
1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 10/16/23
2️⃣ Diving into @RobinHanson's vision for Prediction Markets
3️��� The @NYTimes covers PMs and @ManifoldMarkets
& more
🆕 Predictions 004: https://t.co/FgWfzQv6FH
"...and human lives, all rest on the responsiveness of emergency aid. But the ability to actually #predict when these events will occur and to what scale is varied and region-dependent. So where can #forecasting provide added value?"
Our answer: https://t.co/mRIWW55WzG
Celebrate your #forecastFridays with the inaugural edition of our newsletter Predictions:
1️⃣ News in Numbers
2️⃣ Opinion: Merits of Long-Term Forecasting
3️⃣ Global Guess: More African Coups?
4️⃣ Base Rate News: Forecasting & Prediction Markets
Read now: https://t.co/IYouyPZiek
On Monday we attended the #NATOYouthSummit co-hosted by @NATO and @williamandmary in Washington D.C. and Brussels. We also spent some time with fellow geopolitics creators @intintrigue, @TheRedLinePod, and @D1Wheeler along the way. Let us know if you want more content like this!
Our team @GeovaneVideo did a morning-after recap of the #election in #Turkey. Let us know if you want to here us talk about the upcoming elections in Greece as well! Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics heating up
https://t.co/aZ4ihy9SAx
📺 At its peak, #ISIS held ~33% of #Syria & ~40% of #Iraq.
But by the end of 2017 the group had lost ~95% of that territory including its largest holdings: Mosul 🇮🇶 & Raqqa 🇸🇾. And in 2019, ISIS’ leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed.
How did such a powerful group fall? 👇
🇺🇦 A stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems likely in the near term, potentially resulting in a "forever war" or frozen conflict, marginally favoring Russia. Such conflicts have been used by Russia before.
📺 Full video: https://t.co/gn0ABPQ2cQ
🇷🇺 Recent events in Afghanistan show how war weariness can affect Western support. If the Ukraine conflict becomes a stalemate, Western political and military support may wane, allowing Russia to gain the upper hand.
🇺🇸 Economic and political instability could expedite this process. Ukraine also faces the possibility of a less supportive US president after the 2024 election, impacting the conflict's dynamics.
⚠️ A stalemate in Ukraine raises the risk of the war escalating beyond its borders, causing even greater instability in the region. The international community must stay vigilant to prevent further escalation.
#Ukraine #Russia #RussiaUkraine #stalemate #geopolitics #GeoVane