OC Family Office

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@justfactstruth Any update from Citizens or BTIG that you’ve come across since last call?

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@anonymouskeepit @ACapitalLP Yah, it the warrants that really hurt common equity holders; this financing will end up costing >$300 million in dilution.

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

On Jefferson, not a ‘lotto ticket’ on the asset — it’s that equity contribution to FIP is constrained by the $920M project debt. Asset itself is good and ramping. At $100M EBITDA × 9× = $900M EV, FIP’s equity claim is roughly at par with project debt — the asset has to push above ~$120M before meaningful equity emerges for common.

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@anonymouskeepit @ACapitalLP Also on the Area pref — seems so expensive / dilutive… even if you credit them with the ongoing (optimistic) ramp in the Rail business, you need a lofty valuation or exit multiple to make that financing begin to look accretive. No?

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@justfactstruth @Arturo10185 Have the constant nagging concern $FIP is going to do a dilutive raise down here … the longridge sale reeks of desperation

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

Very off. Missing: (1) $1B Ares pref + 20% warrants at RailCo — flows out of your $3B Rail EV before FIP common sees a dime; (2) $192M Series B pref at HoldCo. Also, Jeff at $480M EV is below its $975M project debt — equity goes to debtors there, not FIP. Real number is closer to $5–6/share at your multiples, not $13

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@justfactstruth @Arturo10185 Transtar down sequentially? 🥴

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

Tried DM’ing you, not sure those get through. Curious how you’re thinking about the current risk/reward post–Long Ridge sale? I’m unsure whether this truly de-risks the path to common equity value, given Jefferson / Repauno execution has been problematic.

I’ve trimmed all week into the print due to uncertainty — but curious how you / others are sizing FIP position and what milestones you think matter most from here?

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

Why indeed? This management team, ughh. I know nothing about TimberHP, so hopefully it’s immaterial and not another distraction. FIP has been convoluted for years; byzantine asset mix with a dizzying capital stack on every piece. You basically need a distressed-credit analyst and an LBO model for each silo just to follow the story.

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@justfactstruth @Arturo10185 And genuinely confused by market action last two sessions. Buyers liked the sale / liquidity while sellers & bears didn’t like price? No real read through on Q. I like mgmt — but seems like this was a bit of a forced transaction. Thoughts? Any notes from CP, Citizens or BTIG?

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@justfactstruth @Arturo10185 Seems now equity 💯 contingent on the “perpetually advanced” contracts / LOIs of Jefferson and Repauno. Nothing new about questioning credibility re: delayed ramp schedules — BUT this sale @ this price does signal *something* — not sure exactly what, though? More divestitures?

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@justfactstruth @Arturo10185 Massive disappointing outcome don’t you think?

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@HegelianMutt @MapleLeafCap @SerfCapital I’ll second that. We’ve established what not to touch. Besides semis, what other “real growth” gets this winner excited? What robotics names? Let’s talk names.

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@price_is_truth What are you valuing the Anthropic investment at?

Longer term, do you see the core business successfully evolving? — still don’t see what exactly they want to be if not a video company.

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@Spac__Trader Any updates on Freenome?

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@conorsen So what’s your take? Long term thesis intact? — anything stand out? Not much commentary I think means it’s just chugging along despite the AH reaction

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@given2tweet Don’t you think expected? — maybe not by markets, but ceasefire will continue, will likely be extended, and will be back and forth. No? Question was why anyone would expect a quick resolution. (How are you btw buddy!? lol)

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@j688en @perplexity_ai @PPLXfinance @AskPerplexity Agree on all counts. Any insight into the plausibility of the acquisition rumor — would be the take under of the century

[OC Family Office @thrivecap]

@j688en @perplexity_ai @PPLXfinance @AskPerplexity Very cool