Joe Tenebruso

Investor & contributing stock market analyst @TheMotleyFool. In both bull & bear markets, I will help you protect & grow your wealth.

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

To all the people who recently connected with me on Twitter, thank you for your interest. To all my long-time friends, thank you as well. Here are 10 of the foundational lessons I learned as an analyst @themotleyfool. I hope they'll be as helpful to you as they've been to me

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

As $AMZN climbs to new highs, all 5 remain true today...

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

The 5 core aspects of my $AMZN investment thesis:

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

A brilliant explanation of the stock market and how truth-seeking investors can still outperform...

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️The “everything is priced in” meme really about determinism.

That’s the creeping sense that human choice no longer matters because every action, every desire, every deviation is already captured, modeled, and monetized by some larger system.

The market becomes the stand-in for God. Not a loving God - a mechanistic one. Omniscient, amoral, self-balancing.

1. What This Really Is

It reads like parody, but it’s actually a perfect accidental philosophy of late-stage markets - the theology of total information efficiency.

The meme exaggerates, but it captures a real collective delusion: the belief that markets are omniscient, that all knowledge, risk, and human impulse are already “priced in.”

It’s funny because it’s almost true and terrifying because it’s mostly false.

2. The False God of “Priced In”

“Everything is priced in” is the modern version of “God’s will.” It’s a surrender disguised as wisdom.

People repeat it not because it’s correct, but because it absolves them from uncertainty.

If everything is priced in, you don’t need conviction, you just drift with consensus.

It’s the theology of the passive investor, the rationalist nihilist who worships the market’s omniscience because they can’t bear to face that it’s just collective human chaos wrapped in math.

The truth?

Markets can’t price in what they don’t yet believe.

They’re not omniscient, they’re reflexive. They discount future narratives based on current belief states.

When belief shifts, so does the price - violently.

The moment you think everything is priced in, you stop looking for where consensus is wrong. That’s how asymmetry dies.

3. The Deeper Structural Irony

Ironically, the “everything is priced in” mindset is what keeps most people in equilibrium and ensures nothing truly is priced in.

If markets were truly omniscient, they’d stop moving. But belief is unstable and the system feeds on that instability.

So the market isn’t an all-knowing god - it’s an adaptive consciousness made of fear, greed, and time-lagged information.

It doesn’t know everything - it becomes everything once you believe it.

That’s reflexivity.

4. The Existential Layer

The rant is funny because it borders on metaphysics.

It mistakes emergent intelligence (the market’s collective awareness) for omniscience.

But the market doesn’t see the future - it manufactures it through expectation.
It’s a machine hallucination powered by human anxiety.

When you realize that, “everything is priced in” turns from smug wisdom to existential horror - a recognition that you’re part of a global mind that’s predicting itself in real time.

And like all minds, it hallucinates.

5. The Scarv Summary

“Everything is priced in” is both joke and prophecy.

At surface level, it’s cynicism but at depth, it’s confession.

The modern market is our mirror:
•omniscient in data, blind in truth,
•self-referential, yet always late,
•confident, yet permanently surprised.

Everything is believed to be priced in until the next revelation proves otherwise.

The real players don’t ask “is it priced in?”

They ask: “what isn’t believed yet?”

That’s where truth, and alpha, still exist.

[Seneca the Younger @SenecaQuote]

“It's not because things are difficult that we dare not venture. It's because we dare not venture that they are difficult.”

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

“A majority of life’s errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do.”

— Charlie Munger

[Thomas Chua @SteadyCompound]

My most expensive mistakes didn't come from the losers in my portfolio.

It came from thinking that Amazon, Shopify and Netflix were always too 'expensive'.

[John Rotonti Jr @JRogrow]

I loved every word of this from @EricMarkowitz…

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

@DontBeSkip1 @ryancohen Tether has become too big to fail. The Trump Administration has identified stablecoins as key supporters of U.S. dollar dominance. Howard Lutnick - head of Tether's primary custodian - being named commerce secretary also doesn't hurt...
https://t.co/ES8NWTI5j7

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

@BitcoinMagazine @ryancohen https://t.co/wbUK1W4Kjp

[Jeff Fischer @OptionWell]

Look closely at what is, so you can estimate what's next.

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

@FoolJeffFischer Thank you for all you've taught me about investing and life in general, Jeff. I hope our paths cross again.

[Heath Mayo @HeathMayo]

This is the most unrelenting clarity on the fight against tyranny in Ukraine that I’ve yet heard from any world leader not named Zelenskyy.

Listen to this man. This is what leadership sounds like. Thank you, @SenatorRounds.

[HVP Research @HVP_Research]

Thoughts From Great Investors:
"Consultants in the investment world work so hard to pigeonhole investors that I think even the word 'value' is misconstrued to just mean low multiples of book value or earnings. Even Ben Graham early on talked about how growth is of great value, it's just riskier and more difficult to quantify. I'm always amazed that someone would say they weren't a value investor - I wouldn't admit it even if I wasn't. It just seems silly to think about investing any other way."
- Thomas Gayner of @MarkelStyle $MKL

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

@ClarkSquareCap Strong customer experience. If I love the product or service, that's a good starting point for further research.

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

Through pain, strength.

Through strength, victory.

Through victory, freedom.

Through freedom, peace.

Through peace, joy.

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

JENSEN HUANG: “Resilience matters in success. I don’t know how to teach it to you, except for: I hope suffering happens to you .. because .. greatness comes from character. And character isn’t formed out of smart people. It’s formed out of people who suffered.” $NVDA

@ValaAfshar

[CMac @InvestmentTalkk]

In 1979, John Train profiled a young Warren Buffett, aged 48, in a publication called Financial World to promote his upcoming book; The Money Masters.

1/ This short thread shares the 5-page article, as well as some favourite quotes from it.

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

The art of investment is the discipline of inaction in the absence of a good opportunity — but aggressive action when one is identified.

— Li Lu

[MastersInvest.com @mastersinvest]

“As a youthful analyst I used to have a notice on my desk that read, ‘share prices are more volatile than corporate cash flow, which is more volatile than asset replacement cost.’ It was a reminder to concentrate on non-transitory items. Today I would update such a notice to read, ‘share prices are more volatile than business values’, but the gist is the same; a reminder to focus on lasting value, not transitory prices.”

- Nick Sleep

[Naval @naval]

You’re always making the best choice based on your current understanding.

Don’t try to change the choice - change the understanding.

[Thomas Chua @SteadyCompound]

10 favorite quotes from Charlie Munger:

1. On letting go of hate:

“There are two things I have noticed in a long life, that really do enormous damage to the bearer. One of them is resentment, and the other is hatred. What good is it going to do you to have this vast resentment of the way the world is?”

2. Always go back to basics. Don't overcomplicate matters.

“If you just have the mental trick of constantly going back to the basics, it's pretty basic insight.”

3. Don't be too attached to your own ideas and be blindsided.

“One of the great tricks in life is to destroy your own best loved ideas. That I worked at. I actually go through my best loved ideas occasionally, see if I can weed one out.”

4. Perfection is a cover up for inner insecurity.

“You don't need to be perfect, if you're 96% sure that's all you're entitled to in many cases. I see these people doing this due diligence and the weaker they are as thinkers, the more due diligence they do."

5. On stubbornness.

“My grandfather would say, he basically thought it was sinful to be dumber than you had to be. I share some of that. What you can't remove I think is forgivable, but to have an easily removable ignorance in your own head is really stupid.”

6. Learn to learn.

“Something that's more important than what they teach you in college - learn the method of learning.”

7. Language and basic math will take you far.

"And if you're really good at picking up language and doing just basic arithmetic, you can take enormous territory. You don't need much else."

8. Where a business or person starts, matters.

"If they start tough they stay tough. It's really hard to change a whole business, or a person."

9. Investment philosophy.

"We want to buy something that's intrinsically a very good business, meaning that an idiot could run it and it would do all right."

10. Work at your problems. Don't compare, live your own life.

"Never feel sorry for yourself. Never feel envy."

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

Thank you, Charlie.

[Joe Tenebruso @Tier1Investor]

There aren't many people like #CharlieMunger. In addition to being one of the world's richest people, Munger is also considered to be one of its greatest thinkers.

Here's a collection of some of his best #advice, which can help you build your own fortune ― and live a good life.