Trendl Tipple

Trying to keep it positive! Currently failing :(

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@pullinhose @umichvoter That's just factually wrong. If the real value is, say, 49-49, then you would expect results as far apart as 52-46 in either direction even if the poll is perfect (3% MOE). Also you're compounding poll movement to create a fake swing #, which polls measure two separate %s.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@DeeDeepro @GraellsiaMoon @USA_Polling Well we want a random sample but you're right it has to be a random sample of the target population.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

Not quite done with @RealCarlAllen 's book yet but man the Mintucky chapter is the single most important thing written about polls in recent history. A real time example of how perfect polling still creates a confusing and misreported narrative. It makes the emotional factual.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@PastorHellmann @RealCarlAllen @nytimes Because the polling averages in 2016 were not off (and polls don't predict final margins anyway). It's an important point. Maybe someone could write a whole book on it. Call it "The Polls Weren't Wrong" or something.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@dweamyfae @kreyolkisses @jiggyjayy2 This is such bullshit. 4L isn't even $7.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@_everythingism @BimRichardson @revhowardarson @RealCarlAllen "There's no denying they were significantly off in the last election" There's a very strong case this is not true outside maybe Wisconsin. I'd second reading Carl Allen on 2020.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@arachno_commie @RealCarlAllen The bigger data point is that 49-47 is a much stronger position than 46-40 or something. It's not even close. But the latter and "+6" would be treated by most as better.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@RealCarlAllen Really enjoyed the averages charts; would love to see your comparison for the national race, too. 538's average in particular seems like it's out of a different cycle.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@Got_Boring_2 Chee; Chi in Japanese has the "ee" sound for i

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@umichvoter @votehub Is it possible to see the actual % they're averaging on votehub? I can't find it and margin is useless information without that context.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@RealCarlAllen Just bought the ebook; I think your model is making a mistake by not accounting for purchase method. Data shows poll heads prefer digital copies more than average people so you need to weight your sample for that.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@watchayakan @HitFactoryPod It's all performative hand wringing and attention seeking. Just so ironic the film is literally dealing with these questions.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@ThalmusRasulala @HitFactoryPod Artists are NEVER obligated to do anything. gtfo

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@BiZAhrOh @812filmreviews OK? And? Why quotes for terms I didn't use?

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@BiZAhrOh @brendengallager Not a blockbuster. Do you even know what that word means? And yes I think it is fair to question why this person is giving interviews to draw attention to themselves. Being a victim isn't as simple as "now you're a saint". But entitled to his view as are we. His isn't paramount

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@gadbored @labuzamovies I don't think victims are uniquely titled to decide the value of any art. And this case is a perfect example because the victim is also a highly talented media manipulator. It's not as easy as "poor victim". Goes against everything the movie is trying to say.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@gadbored @labuzamovies Where would it be discussed on any scale of note if not in media? Yes the film explores its own nature of self exploitation but in doing so transcends being exploitative. It very much saves itself from the critique.

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@BiZAhrOh @brendengallager Sure it's valid. It's also valid to wonder why he's putting himself in the limelight if he is so concern about being paraded in front of rich people. Also Todd Haynes makes movies because he's an artist not to win an oscar (lmao, his movies are not even Oscar friendly).

[Trendl Tipple @TippleTrendl]

@BiZAhrOh @812filmreviews Not at all. This is a movie about 2 relationships. You could do the actress half without much time being given to the other half. The film goes out of its way to demonstrate how he is broken, abused, a victim.