Toby MG

Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 17 of the last 21 statewide elections. he/him

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

What to expect on Election Night: Central Count Edition

While we don't know who will win or by how much, there are some things we can easily predict about Election Night. Since the conspiracy theorists love to talk about scary Milwaukee vote dumps late at night as evidence of

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

@rossacrosswi @TomTiffanyWI It is annoying when we poll on facts

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

@Christo73611476 @joeminocqua @ConservativesWi @BillMcCoshen11 https://t.co/nIvgQdZOhK

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

And if they were pulling out to focus on picking up a Democratic seat like SD31 you could reasonably claim they were pulling out of 21 out of confidence, but this is clearly writing off SD21 to avoid further losses. Wild times

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

But honestly- how does the same org come up with the map above and this one?
(I'd tag but they blocked me for calling out this model)

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

@VoteHub also uses L2 data but somehow has much more sensible partisan estimates for the absentee vote in Wisconsin (though an admittedly wide range with Crowley anywhere from 53.6-65.2% of the current vote). I think they're underestimating turnout based on their est. votes cast

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

(would calculate out to an almost 1m drop from 2024) but you can see why Republicans in general and Derrick Van Orden in particular have been so desperate the last few weeks.

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

@jamandabop i know that feel

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

SD9 does not have a Democratic candidate, but if the GOP is worried about their candidate vs an independent in this seat they must have some truly dire internals.

[Jason Calvi @JasonCalvi]

NEW: GOP pulling broadcast $ out of swing district & putting into a GOP stronghold, sources tell me.

-Removing $ from 21th Wisconsin Senate district, held by GOP. In 2024, VP Harris won it by +1.3.

-Adding $ to the 9th. In 2024, Pres. Trump won it by +15.

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

Also interesting- Republicans don't want to admit that Tiffany has voted 100% of the time with Trump. For all the bluster, they know the President is an anchor on their political fortunes right now

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

Tiffany is seen as supporting Trump in Congress almost always by 49%, with 38% saying he supported Trump most of the time. 32% of Republicans say Tiffany has almost always supported Trump, compared to 49% of independents and 66% of Democrats. #mulawpoll

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

This is crucial. A majority of independents saw through Tiffany's plan to try and buy votes with a one-time giveaway that would end up costing families a lot more in the long run

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

Voters are evenly divided on Tiffany’s plan to return the state budget surplus to taxpayers, or whether to use the surplus to pay for services. Among Repub, 76% favor returning the surplus, while 77% of Dems favor using it for services, as do 58% of independents. #mulawpoll

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

The fact that Tom Tiffany wasted the immediate post-primary weeks with attacks on data centers... did he not know his own record and how elevating the issue would cost him?

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

Asked which candidate would do more on each of four issues, Crowley is seen as better on making health care more affordable and improving education, as well as doing a better job on data centers. Tiffany is seen as doing more to reduce taxes. #mulawpoll

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

I'd call the Senate Likely D at this point and the Assembly is wobbling between tossup and tilt D depending on how the vote ends up distributed

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

Among likely voters, the legislative vote closely mirrors the vote for governor, with 51% saying they will vote for the Democratic legislative candidate and 44% for the Republican. #mulawpoll

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

It's where the data and my gut have been pointing. Tiffany has struggled to break 44% all along and he's not running a very effective campaign

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

New Marquette Law School Poll finds 51% of likely voters supporting Democrat David Crowley for governor, and 44% supporting Republican Tom Tiffany, with 4% undecided. #mulawpoll

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

@bllorenz Wow-atosa

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

Boom. More later

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

we'll almost definitely wake up to data showing Wauwatosa with more total votes than Waukesha and a decent chance it'll be in third place ahead of Kenosha, too.
🥇Milwaukee-🥈Madison-🥉Wauwatosa ranking likely incoming soon if not tomorrow.

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

@ShawnFetta I think you'd have to hunt pretty hard to find any good news for him- but I DID see one of his signs (alongside a Tim Rogers one, who also is not going to win) with no Tiffany one with them

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

Thank you to the two Tosa voters who showed up to make my prediction true 😂

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

@NickyScatz @electionsjoe Tom Tom Tiffany is nowhere near normal

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

So Crowley outraised Tiffany 5:1 because no real people are actually excited about Tom Tiffany

[JR Ross @jrrosswrites]

Wis guv fundraising #s:

@DavidCCrowley $15.5 million w/ $9.9M from @WisDems, which got $5.5M from Reid Hoffman.

@TomTiffanyWI $10.1M w/ $9M from @WisGOP, $3.5M in-kind donations after party got $13M from Diane Hendricks.

See more in today's AM Update:
https://t.co/8t6und7Tsp

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

Crowley on this stretch. I noticed a phenomenon I've been seeing more and more often- there ARE yards with Republican signs, but not a Tiffany one. I've seen signs for Congressional and legislative candidates without a Tiffany sign, I've even seen a Toney sign with no Tiffany. 🤷

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

we'll almost definitely wake up to data showing Wauwatosa with more total votes than Waukesha and a decent chance it'll be in third place ahead of Kenosha, too.
🥇Milwaukee-🥈Madison-🥉Wauwatosa ranking likely incoming soon if not tomorrow.

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

Incidentally, I found myself driving through a slice of Wauwatosa today, down Wisconsin avenue from around 90th to the freeway (GPS didn't want me to get on the freeway north of the stadium for some odd reason 🤔) and my youngest was counting yard signs. It was literally 31-0 for