T

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@SenSchumer Until you mention Ro Khanna or Nancy's trades, you're just a partisan.

[will depue @willdepue]

I have a major result to share.

I’ve found conclusive forensic evidence that the top 4 Chinese AI labs—DeepSeek, Moonshot, MiniMax and Ant Group—have built their newest models on NVIDIA’s most advanced Blackwell chips, which are barred from export to China.

This sounds insane, but I discovered that almost every AI model carries a hidden signature of the GPU that trained it. When a model is first set up, the starting values of its weights are laid out in a pattern that depends on the exact GPU. Each combination of GPU and seed number produces a unique pattern—a sort of fingerprint of the hardware used to create the model. Traces of that pattern survive training into the published model.

Again, this evidence isn’t based on any insider information or leaking. It’s based on a forensic analysis of the model weights released by the companies themselves.

I searched more than six trillion combinations of chip layout and seed number and matched them to open-weights models. In doing so, I found conclusive evidence that six Chinese AI models—including DeepSeek-V4-Pro, Kimi K3, and MiniMax-M3—were initialized on NVIDIA Blackwell systems. Four of the models match Grace Blackwell, the GB200 and GB300 parts in NVIDIA’s flagship liquid-cooled rack-scale systems.

I then verified these results on real hardware. Running unmodified PyTorch with the seeds I’d recovered, a Blackwell B300 reproduced DeepSeek-V4-Flash’s untouched starting weights bit for bit, and a rented GB200 reproduced Kimi K3’s to a correlation of 0.999995. A Hopper H100 reproduced none of DeepSeek-V4-Flash’s, and changing the seed by one broke the match. (DeepSeek’s seed is 953049583 by the way.) The method also was verified to match 24 known open-weights models to the hardware that developers said they used.

It is exceedingly unlikely that these results are a coincidence. Across six trillion combinations, the best accidental match should reach only about 8 sigma (i.e., eight standard deviations above what random chance would produce). The real matches range from 49 to 1,385 sigma, and even the weakest single test hits 20.

These were data-center-scale training runs. With some analysis of release schedules and model details, I estimate that the largest, Kimi K3 and DeepSeek-V4-Pro, used 2,000 to 3,000 Blackwell GPUs each. Clusters of this size cost on the order of $150 to $200 million each to buy, and across these labs alone would add up to more than half a billion dollars of export-controlled GPUs, not counting experimental compute or otherwise. It’s quite likely that we see multi-billion dollar expenditure on export-controlled GPUs.

I am highly confident in this result, and it has been independently verified by senior researchers at OpenAI and Anthropic. You can read the full report at https://t.co/YOtzND0Jqk.

There is much more I’ve identified about these models through other forms of checkpoint forensics like this, and will have more to share soon.

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@steve2bacon By the time you buy, you'll become Renassaince technologies or @RoKhanna 's exit liquidity.

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@WisemanCap COOL. WILL RO SELL AT THAT PRICE AGAIN?

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS A PONZI SCHEME, GO LOOK AT SOME OF THE TOP HEDGE FUNDS 13-F FILINGS ON $NVDA

EVERYONE IS EXIT LIQUIDITY.

$SPY $QQQ #FRAUD

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@BRICSinfo Schizo fuck.

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@kevinxu No need to make any more accusations. He fucked us all, lets be real.

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@ClayOglesby @TrustlessState @RoKhanna @Bankless "He didn't catch the pico top moron! Nothing to see here!"

🤡

[David Hoffman @TrustlessState]

hey @RoKhanna I enjoyed having you on @Bankless a few years ago

I'm wondering if you can share what made you sell $NVDA here?

What information did you see that changed your mind?

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

Why would @RoKhanna sell an undervalued company in $NVDA above $230+? Can Fintwit explain this? I would like to understand that when every price target was a buy rating on the company. Why the sudden gut feeling to sell Ro?

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@CKCapitalxx Always something with that company, which is why its been a no-touch for me, regardless of whether it has a pump or drops. Can't trust it to make a trade.

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

NEOCLOUDS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN JUST A TRADE. FINDING LEVELS AND TAKING GAINS. I WISH EVERYONE LUCK, BUT ITS A SPECULATIVE, OVERVALUED GROWTH DRIVER THAT DOESN'T RETURN SHAREHOLDER CAPITAL, NOR WILL IT FOR YEARS. BY THEN IT MIGHT BOTTOM. $SPY $QQQ

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@DeepValueBagger Don't think he's retiring. Maybe a role at $SPCX.

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@GavinSBaker

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@TommyThornton Qatar is mediating this.

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@IntCyberDigest I want to retweet this, but you're wrong for this one
😭😭😭

[Matthias Schmidt @eurofounder]

People on LinkedIn are going to lose their minds over the Jensen Huang and Nvidia drama when they find out about it next month

[KanekoaTheGreat @KanekoaTheGreat]

Marco Rubio at work next week

[Retail Mourinho @retail_mourinho]

LMAO, I will never delete this app

[T @TradeKnowledge_]

@taobanker Just needs to drop another Hell is coming, and we're saved.