Time for me to take another obvious trade.
Long #BTC @ 63500
Long #Eth @ 1860
This is just me taking trades. Not financial advice as I genuinely know nothing. Please see my past trades for my track records. As far as I know it has been pretty accurate so far.
The most overvalued market in 100 years.
Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong.
But this pattern has NEVER failed.
100 out of 100 years showed the same thing:
The S&P 500 is already following it.
→ Dot-com bubble
→ Housing bubble
→ AI bubble
And SpaceX is the final liquidity event before it all breaks.
From its top in 1974 to its bottom in 1976, gold dropped about 50%.
From its top in 2025 to today, BTC has dropped about 50%.
From 1976 to 1980, gold rose 750%.
I was young but I remember that late-1970s gold surge.
Historical analogues like this get posted often on twitter. They should never be interpreted as predictions, just frameworks for investors to keep in mind if broader conditions start to line up.
13F season is coming up, so we’ll see what the macro guys like Paul Tudor Jones did on BTC in the past few months. He’s been hugely prescient on it -- selling IBIT in the second half of 2025, according to filings, but then keeping his remaining position and not selling any during the first three months of this year.
Cash appears to have the greatest opportunity cost at the precipice of when you'll need it most.
Have been nibbling here and there of late, but the confluence around October is too incredible to ignore.
$MSFT walked away from a $3B cloud leasing deal with $ORCL due to security concerns per Business Insider
“The plan was to move some Microsoft workloads to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, but Oracle's public cloud did not have the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP), a standardized security framework that ensures cloud services are secure enough to handle U.S. government data. Oracle was not willing to add this framework, one of the people said.”
Price based capitulation and anger are always followed by time based capitulation and apathy
Seems like we are entering the apathy phase where people stopped caring
That’s historically the best time to build and invest in the space
ETH was trading below it's 200 week SMA for the first time in history, and then Tom Lee plowed $18b into it to save it
Now its once again 30% below the 200 week SMA
Where will the next $18b of buying come from?
I am unsure