Cathartes aura

Migratory bird

[Cathartes aura @Turkeyvul]

The spice must flow

[Chris Martenson @chrismartenson]

I think Iran knows exactly what they're doing. I think they're just biding time, waiting for the US to crash into its tank bottoms. I think we're going to be surprised at just how devastating it is when oil suddenly spikes to $150, $200, or higher. We're all going to be surprised when our capital markets absolutely break down under those circumstances.

We're all going to be surprised. Well, not all of us. Hopefully you won't be.

All my reporting on the Iran War (and what I'm doing about it) can be found by clicking here: https://t.co/iB9y8rGD85

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

WTF timeline are we on. Someone called me the MAGA whisperer and I’ll gladly take the title. Left, right, D or R we all want the same things. We’re being divided on purpose by the Epstein Elite Oligarch class because as long as we’re at each other’s throats, they get fat and rich off of our misery. The second we figure out we agree on more than we disagree, they’re done. Love your neighbor. Be yourself. Radical honesty. No fucks given, no fucks taken. Everything else is just noise. (But still fuck Jake “Brick Tamland” Tapper on any time line)

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Every step of the way, Iran has played their hand to perfection. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

The United States, in contrast, has been ill-prepared, scrambling, and behind the curve.

Nowhere is this more clear than the recent US strikes and hour ago on an Iranian vessel near Kharg Island with a Hellfire missile, followed subsequently by immediate retaliation from Iran on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

What we see taking place here is a United States that knows they are boxed in. They have no military options that would have even a moderate likelihood of success, so now they are hoping... praying, that Iran does not have the capabilities or willingness to resume to war. This is the window the United States hopes to take advantage of.

If Iran, a country that is battered and bruised, yet still standing, is unwilling or incapable of returning to war, the United States gains immediate leverage at the negotiating table. This means that the US can continuously make probing and strategic strikes at Iran without a fear of retaliation.

Iran knows this, and they are responding the same way they have done throughout the entire war. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

Throughout this "hot ceasefire", we have seen the United States continually throw jabs at Iran. No haymakers, nothing overly significant, but enough that Iran has to either respond, or allow for them to continue.

And this is exactly what they did when they struck targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.

In response to the early probing strikes from the United States, Iran has responded in a very much "tit for tat" manner. You strike me, I strike you only to the level in which the pain is equated. But here's the problem... the United States can play that game. All day long baby.

So now, we see Iran turning to a slightly different tactic.

150%.

Under this strategy, Iran seeks to respond in a manner that is meant to deter future probing strikes, jabs, from the United States. But this is a tricky line to walk...

Under-escalate, and you guarantee future strikes. Over-escalate, and you could see a full resumption of the war.

But Iran, as they have throughout the war, continues to play as if they have been preparing for this exact scenario for 47 years... because they have.

Instead of over-escalating by closing down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, or targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, or lashing out at civilian vessels in the Strait, they take the perfectly proportionate step.

The problem now for the United States, is that their probing strategy has now backfired. Iran has shown, by striking these targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, that they are not only WILLING to go back to a hot war... they are capable of doing so EFFECTIVELY.

A move from Washington meant to increase US leverage at the negotiating table by seeing Iran back down, and has produced the exact opposite effects.

Iran is emboldened. They're willing. And most damning of all... they're capable.

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

So let me get this straight.

Jake Tapper is focused on attacking my Mom.

Jared and Ivanka are building a private island paradise on Albanian protected land.

Don Jr married the daughter of Epstein’s banker, and a startup his fund backs just got a record $620M Pentagon loan.

Eric is taking an Israeli drone company public for $1.5B in the middle of a war with Iran that nobody wanted.

And I know: “But what about your paintings, Hunter?”

Please.

[Noodles @criptopaul]

Let's decode what actually happened here.

Axios reported that Trump exploded at Netanyahu. Called him "fucking crazy." Said "you'd be in prison if it weren't for me." Said "everybody hates you now."

The journalist is Barak Ravid again, we talked about it. Israeli. Based in Washington. Covers the Netanyahu-US relationship for Axios, and every latest deals to calm the markets.

This is the same journalist who wrote the exact same type of story about Biden. There is literally a book chapter about this pattern. It is called "Fuming Biden." The same reporter. The same format. The same function. Different president.

Now watch the response.

Mark Levin, a close ally of both Trump and Netanyahu, did not deny the story. He demanded an FBI investigation into who leaked it. When your defense is "this should never have leaked" instead of "this never happened," you have confirmed the call happened.

But here is the part that matters.

Why would Levin, a friend to BOTH men, confirm the most explosive account of their relationship ever published?

Because it serves both.

Trump gets to look tough. Not Netanyahu's puppet. Willing to put Israel in its place. His base loves it.

Netanyahu gets cover. He "paused" the Beirut strike, but not because Iran threatened him. Because his "friend" asked him to. His base loves it too.

And look at what actually changed on the ground. Nothing.

Israel cancelled the Beirut strike. But the ground invasion of Lebanon continues. The IDF is still miles deep. A soldier died today from a Hezbollah drone. Netanyahu's office said: "position unchanged."

The performance was perfect. Trump gets the headline. Netanyahu gets the cover. The deal gets another 48 hours of "progress." Markets get a reason to breathe.

And the war continues exactly as planned.

This is the same playbook. Every time public opinion turns against the war, a story appears showing the US president is "furious" with Israel. It creates the illusion of restraint while changing nothing.

Biden was "furious" for 14 months. The war never stopped.

Trump is "furious" now. The ground invasion is expanding.

The visible game is: Trump controls Netanyahu.
The real game is: both men are performing for their audiences while the machine moves forward.

Nothing has been signed. Nothing has stopped. The war is not winding down. It is being managed.

Neither one controls the other. They walk arm in arm. Know that.

[⛷️ @ThomasWrrld]

you can’t even do this trade in Madden 😭

[Cathartes aura @Turkeyvul]

@WebDesignMuseum Rip rainbow Apple menu

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

A few quick observations on the current situation:

A. The longer Washington and Tehran fail to reach an agreement, the more opportunities emerge for spoilers, from Hormuz Strait to Lebanon, to shape events. The status quo was never stable. It was always clear that, absent a deal, the current trajectory would eventually lead to escalation.

B. This is yet another reminder that Iran does not see itself as the party under overwhelming pressure. Tehran is not desperate for an agreement at any cost. Iranian decision-makers appear convinced that a deal that fails to protect their core strategic interests is not worth accepting, and that the United States and the broader international community have at least as much to lose from continued instability as Iran does.

C. These evets once again highlights Hezbollah’s centrality in Iranian strategic thinking. From Tehran’s perspective, Lebanon is not a secondary theater. Hezbollah remains as important to Iran’s regional deterrence architecture as its missile program and, in many respects, its nuclear program. This suggests that a sustainable diplomatic breakthrough will be difficult to achieve without addressing the conflict in Lebanon.

D. Regarding the Houthis, it is important to avoid oversimplified assumptions about Iran’s ability to dictate their behavior. The relationship is not a classic patron-client arrangement in which Tehran can simply issue orders and expect compliance. That said, the Houthis have deep ideological and operational ties to Hezbollah and retain a strong sense of commitment to the organization. As a result, significant escalation involving Hezbollah could plausibly trigger a Houthi response, whether directed at Israel, maritime traffic, or both.

Taken together, these developments reinforce a broader reality: Tehran believes it retains leverage and has little intention of rushing into an agreement that does not meet its minimum requirements. Iranian leaders appear willing to accept the risk of further escalation if those conditions are not met.

The ball is now in Washington’s court. The administration faces a difficult choice: adjust its position and pursue a broader diplomatic framework that could include de-escalation in Lebanon, or continue down a path that risks further escalation across multiple theaters. The challenge is that once escalation begins, controlling its scope and pace becomes increasingly difficult.

None of this should come as a surprise. The warning signs have been visible for some time. Without an agreement, the current trajectory points toward greater regional instability, not less.

#iran
#Iran

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Far too late last night, President Trump took to Truth Social in order to beg the American people to believe in him. But more importantly from my perspective is the very last sentence:

"Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does!"

MAYBE Donald... MAYBE if you had held to your word on the Epstein Files. Maybe if you didn't cover up for monsters. Maybe if you didn't launch war after war, followed by threat after threat.

You don't GET the luxury anymore of "just trust me bro".

That's not a strategy, that's desperation.

As someone who has extensively analyzed this conflict from a plethora of different and unique angles, the harsh reality facing President Trump and the United States is that we are... completely and utterly screwed here. And that sucks.

I do not buy for a single second that the Iranian regime is led by "good and moral people". They're not. Generally speaking, they are monsters that commit atrocities to their own people... but frankly, has Washington looked in the mirror recently?

From a strategic standpoint, "just trust me BLINDLY" is not a magic fix to an impossible situation, and that is where President Trump finds himself.

Many in Trump's inner circle are screaming from the rooftops demanding that he launch Operation Freedom 2.0. You know... that remarkably stupid strategy that was canceled just a mere 48 hours after it was announced?

So why doesn't Operation Freedom 2.0 work?

New reporting from Peter Eavis and Eric Schmitt at The New York Times, published yesterday May 31st, highlights that the United States has guided 70 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz recently. Well, if by "recently" you mean in the past three weeks combined. This may come as a shock to some of you, but a whopping 3 vessels per day in not EXACTLY the same as the normal 130 vessels per day that navigated the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict.

And let's assume that the United States sends the full force of the U.S. Navy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That's gotta be a fix... right? RIGHT?! Of course not. Providing naval escorts to vessels not only would cost an exorbitant amount of money, while also putting the lives of our sailors at risk, but once again... it's not a viable way to restore traffic to the Strait of Hormuz in any way that would notably offset the ~13M barrels per day and 25% of global fertilizer that is being removed from the market.

And what? Is this just going to be what the United States does in perpetuity now? Til the end of time, the United States is going to be the global chauffeur through the Strait of Hormuz? No, quite obviously, this is not a solution.

(Pete Hegseth emerges from the shadows): "MORE BOMBING! WAR!!!" *Chugs a beer with Kash Patel*

As I have addressed in previous posts, "more war" is not a solution either.

One of the common tropes that I hear is that "if only NATO or the Middle East was willing to join us in this war". Listen... the Croatian Navy, believe it or not, isn't going to be what puts the United States over the edge in this conflict. The Lavian Air Force? Yes, I know they are renowned all throughout the... city of Riga... but no, I don't think that is going to be what puts the United States over the edge here.

The unfortunate reality is that there IS NO military solution to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Could it, maybe, be opened through sheer military force temporarily? Perhaps, although even this is not clear, but is this a permanent solution? Absolutely not. This is because, in order to reclose the Strait of Hormuz, Iran merely needs to strike a single ship... or even just come CLOSE to striking a single ship. Then we are once again... right back where we started.

So Frat Boy Pete... what about bombing inside Iran? They're just "rats" as the Trump Administration has repeatedly called them, right?

... how'd that go the first time? Last I checked, the Supreme Leader is still a Khamenei (although now younger and more hardline), the President is still Pezeshkian (despite erroneous claims from the ever so reliable Iran International yesterday), the Minister of Foreign Affairs is still Araghchi, Vahidi still leads the IRGC, and Ghalibaf is still the Speaker of Parliment... I can't say the previous bombing campaign under Operation Epic Fury accomplished anything besides making Iran even MORE hardline.

But let's assume, for the sake of argument, we DID resort back to bombing. The entire issue here lies in the beaten to death term of "escalation dominance"... but it's true.

The Gulf countries have made it clear that they fear Iran now. They saw how easily they have been able to break through American defenses that Gulf countries spent billions and billions of dollars on for the singular reason of keeping them safe in a scenario such as this. They have watched as South Pars Gas Field was lit up by Iran. They have watched as the Fairmont Hotel on the Palm Jumeirah was struck by Iran. Gulf countries had to, as Trump so eloquently put it, "sit back and relax", and it failed. Catastrophically.

Iran has a multitude of options in which they can severely escalate far beyond what damage the United States can impose on Iran. Yes, even blatantly illegal strikes against critical infrastructure, energy facilities, bridges, and civilian targeting... Iran can escalate beyond this.

Iran can strike water desalination plants across the Gulf. While Iran absolutely has water availability issues of their own right now, only ~3% of Iran's water supply comes from desalination. But let's compare that number to some of their neighbors:
Qatar: 99%
Bahrain: 90%
Kuwait: 90%
UAE: 80%
Saudi Arabia: 70%

Get the picture? This can become an apocalyptic situation VERY quickly if Iran chooses to escalate in this way.

But let's assume, for some reason, that out of the goodness of the Iranian regimes heart, they feel that this is a step too far in retaliation in defending against a war of choice being waged upon them by the Great and Little Satan. Bit of a leap there, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt as... apparently we are supposed to give Trump.

Iran can shut down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

This is something they have long avoided throughout the conflict, but much like the Strait of Hormuz, even a small amount of drones, missiles, or even small arms fire can turn this waterway into a desert. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait accounts for ~25% of all global maritime shipping traffic. ~4M barrels of oil per day transits this narrow chokepoint. 20% of global LNG flows through this singular point.

You thought we were heading for a global recession? Let's make that a depression now.

Undersea cables? I'm guessing you saw these headlines as well. I guarantee you Pistol Pete and Ketel One Kash did.

More than a dozen undersea cables lie in the Strait of Hormuz. These cables handle 20% of the global internet and financial data flow. Regionally between Europe and Asia? 90%. Once again... let's turn that recession into a depression.

Iran - as a direct result of poor planning, execution, and adaptation from Washington - now is sitting on their Golden Goose in the Strait of Hormuz. They hold the cards. Pocket Aces. Trump, on the other hand, is trying to convince the American people that we're really playing Battleship. Washington is missing that this is not a problem that can be overcome by pure military might. They're playing the wrong game altogether.

So while President Trump asks us to "just sit back and relax", telling us that "it will all work out in the end", we need to realize that what he is telling us is that he has no plan. There IS NO strategy.

Donald Trump is begging the American people to trust him blindly.

I'm asking why on earth we should anymore.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says it has now decided to execute the full blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as the next operational step following the announcement of ending all negotiations and communication with the US, per Tasnim.

Oil is surging over 8%, now at $94.

[محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

"We felt trapped in two unwinnable wars and a disproportionate share of fighters came from our neighborhood" — JDV, Hillbilly Elegy, Ch 11.

Hillbilly 2 incoming. America's poor & forgotten will foot the bill for the broligarchs, Dimon the demon, and the beltway war merchants.

[cr3ghost @cr3ghost]

Vanguard runs at boot because cheats run at boot.

Riot clones the PML4 table, inserts a shadow entry into a free slot, hooks SwapContext, and swaps CR3 per-thread at context switch time.

If it was spyware, researchers would have found it. They found this instead.

Reverse engineering is an art. When in doubt, reverse it.

#ReverseEngineering #Vanguard #InfoSec

Full RE breakdown by @Xyrem256: https://t.co/RyUreWosL5

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Last night, President Trump made a move that came as a surprise to many.

He got TOUGHER in his negotiating position.

But why did he do this is the question many are asking right now. Iran has consistently rejected terms offered by the United States because, quite frankly, they are ridiculously maximalist and entirely detached from the reality of the situation.

Trump is at the table with Iran holding a 7 & 2 off-suit, and Iran is sitting with pocket aces.

So why even waste the time to make an offer Iran is sure to refuse immediately?

Because the deal wasn’t meant for Iran. It was meant for American consumption.

Throughout this conflict, from a strategic standpoint, Trump has been absolutely dog walked by the Iranian regime. From the very first day that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and every day since, Iran has held the upper hand, and it only gets stronger by the day.

Trump knows this, even as he wallows in self pity and denial. Iran obviously knows this, and sees the upcoming bullet train of the World Cup, lowest SPR levels in history, midterms, cratering approval numbers… everything is going south for Trump fast at this point. It’s spiraling, and Trump looks increasingly desperate for a deal.

As much as Trump has tried to claim Iran is “begging” for a deal, it is obvious to everyone that it is really Trump that is on his hands and knees.

So if he’s going to reject the latest Iranian proposal because the terms are simply a step too far… why not give the image, the bluster, the BRAVADO of a “tough on Iran” Commander in Chief to sell to the American people.

“Trump is dictating the terms”
“Trump is running the show”
“The United States is in control”

Of course, this is all obviously rubbish. Iran knows that. Trump knows that. And everyone around the world knows that. But it’s not meant for them, it’s meant for his MAGA base.

Trump, by setting forth even more ludicrous terms, allows for a kicking of the can down the road, and the veneer of a tough President that will placate his base that has been ready to rip him to shreds.

It’s not a serious offer. It doesn’t have even the slightest of chance to be accepted by Iran. But it was never meant for them.

It was meant for the desperate and hopeless President Trump to try to prove to his base that he is still in control.

Even when he is clearly not.

[Harry Sisson @harryjsisson]

Trump had another mental health episode today and posted over 50 times online:

11:15 AM - Trump attacks judge who said he couldn’t put his name on the Kennedy Center
12:03 PM - Says he may perform and give a speech at the America 250 event instead of artists who cancelled
12:08 PM - Says Obama filled the Reflecting Pool with Garbage
12:09 PM - Attacks Biden
12:09 PM - Posts edited photo of Columbus Circle in DC with the caption “CLEAN”
12:10 PM - Attacks Biden again
12:11 PM - Posts AI photo of him and George Washington riding horses in front of the White House with a space shuttle and race car in the background
12:11 PM - Attacks Rosie O’Donnell
12:11 PM - Posts photo of him in front of the American flag
12:11 PM - Brags about his endorsed candidates winning
12:12 PM - Attack Obama and Biden over the reflecting pool
12:12 PM - Posts photo of him pointing at the camera
12:13 PM - Posts photo of the UFC event cage he’s building at the White House
12:13 PM - Posts an AI image of a “golden dome” for the White House
12:15 PM - Defends Jaxson Dart, calling him a “winner” and his critics “losers”
12:45 PM - Posts an AI image of him as a NY Knicks basketball player dunking on Governor Kathy Hochul
12:56 PM - Posts an AI image of him with Tom Brady
1:03 PM - Posts a garbage can labeling it “The Obama Presidential Library”
1:16 PM - Says America is back
1:16 PM - Says America is back again
1:16 PM - Says America is back for the 3rd time
1:55 PM - Posts an AI image of him golfing
2:55 PM - Says he’s in “excellent health” lol
3:17 PM - Promotes his Fox News interview with Lara Trump
4:33 PM - Attacks the Pope again
4:54 PM - Posts a weird image of him staring at Greenland (which he has posted already)
4:57 PM - Posts an AI image of the “drone port” he wants to build on top of the ballroom
5:33 PM - Attacks Biden
5:33 PM - Attacks Biden x2
5:34 PM - Attacks Biden x3
5:34 PM - Attacks Biden x4
5:34 PM - Attacks Biden x5
5:35 PM - Posts cartoon image of Governors Newsom, Pritzker, and Hochul saying they like crime (Trump is a felon)
5:36 PM - Posts meme about Republicans who voted to release the Epstein files losing their primaries
5:36 PM - Posts an old tweet of his where he attacks “disloyal” Republicans
5:37 PM - Posts an old tweet where he said he wants to stop the world from “killing itself”
5:37 PM - Posts a mock up of a “Trump Peace Prize” which may be the most useless peace prize known to man
5:37 PM - Posts a photo of a B-2 bomber with the caption “Trump energy 2026”
5:37 PM - Posts a photo of his face on Mount Rushmore
5:38 PM - Posts an image of him kissing the American flag (he’s the least patriotic president we’ve ever had)
5:39 PM - Compares himself to George Washington
5:39 PM - Says you were convinced to think a photo of a family sitting on a car is “evil” and billions were spent to do that (???)
5:50 PM - Says we should “physically audit” Fort Knox
5:50 PM - Posts an image of him cosplaying as a navy commander
5:51 PM - Posts another image of his face on Mount Rushmore
5:51 PM - Posts another photo of him and George Washington
6:09 PM - Attacks Biden again
6:09 PM - Attacks Biden x2
6:09 PM - Attacks Biden x3
6:09 PM - Posts an old photo of himself and King Charles
6:12 PM - Posts an old photo of himself and President XI in China
6:12 PM - Posts another photo of himself and President Xi
6:22 PM - Posts a photo of himself walking in China
6:48 PM - Says the U.S. should have a ballroom because China has one
7:03 PM - Says he wants to cancel his America 250 celebration and replace it with a MAGA rally
7:56 PM - Promotes Mark Levin’s show on Fox News
7:59 PM - Promotes his Fox News interview with Lara Trump

All in one day. This man is not well. Impeachment and removal NOW.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers.

Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake.

He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing.

Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor.

Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.

Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.

But here is what Burry is flagging.

Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.

They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.

Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.

Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.

Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit.

Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.

Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.

When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.

The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.

Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.

Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets.

Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.

The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.

Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.

- Nvidia books the revenue.
- Apollo collects the fees.
- xAI gets the computing power.
- And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Iran is going to keep dragging ass. It won’t relent on the two biggest things:

- Uranium enrichment
- Strait of Hormuz

Trump’s options are very limited here. Escalate or total capitulation.

And everyday that Iran can drag this on, we keep losing oil inventories.

[Cathartes aura @Turkeyvul]

@WeatherProf Terrible thought we were getting rain in Florida this weekend and it's bone dry

[Dr. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits]

🌀 The 2026 hurricane season officially begins on Monday. Here's my top-level discussion on what to expect throughout the season and over the next couple weeks.

[Gandalv @Microinteracti1]

Exxon Says We’re Two Weeks From Petrol Armageddon

Right. So it turns out closing the world’s most important oil chokepoint has consequences. Who knew.

Exxon’s Senior VP Neil Chapman stood up at a Bernstein conference this week and said what everyone in the industry is thinking but politely avoiding at dinner parties: global oil inventories are approaching “truly unprecedented” lows. His words. And when a Senior VP at Exxon starts using phrases like “truly unprecedented,” you should probably pay attention.

The IEA has already called Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history. Over a billion barrels lost since late February. A billion. That’s not a rounding error. That’s a civilisational inconvenience.

Chapman’s estimate: Brent crude hits $150 to $160 per barrel once stockpiles reach critical levels. Two to three weeks away. Wood Mackenzie, never a firm known for cheerful forecasts, went further and suggested $200 by year-end if the strait stays shut. With a global recession as a bonus prize.

So there we have it. The world spent decades building an energy system with a single point of failure, handed Iran the keys to it, and is now surprised that the keys are being used.

Genius, really.

https://t.co/H49cKLnCTQ

[Cathartes aura @Turkeyvul]

BUSTED

[Florida Tropics @FloridaTropics1]

Looks like those 8-10+ inches have evaporated for next week - will still be some decent rain for primarily eastern areas but not drought-busting.