Unrealized Alex

Reading earnings, staring at charts and figuring out what moved today.

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

I started this account because I was already spending too much time reading earnings releases and drawing boxes on charts.

Most of what ends up here is stuff I’m actually looking at. Stocks, earnings, market moves, odd business stories that are worth digging into.

I post the numbers, the chart, and the levels I’m working with.

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

Good take, overnight levels will become more important than ever. I expect mega cap stocks to benefit most from this given the liquidity.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

Nasdaq is heading toward 23/5 trading and tokenized stocks are pushing selected names toward 24/7 trading.

I believe most people are looking at this as a convenience story. Being able to trade US stocks from Asia timezone and react to news immediately. No need to wait for Monday.

In my opinion, I think the bigger change could be what it does to the way price moves.

Take the opening range breakout (ORB) system for example. Today, 9:30am matters because a huge amount of buyers and sellers arrive at the same time. Overnight news gets processed quickly, volume jumps, and the market establishes a fresh range. But I can see the 9:30am open gradually becoming less about price discovery and more about liquidity confirmation.

If s stock has already been trading for 15 hours before New York wakes up, a lot of the overnight move may already be established. The question at 9:30am becomes whether the much larger pool of regular session buyers / sellers agrees with it.

Same thing for catalyst traders. An earnings surprise or major announcement today can create a huge gap and an episodic pivot the next morning. In a more continuous market, some of that gap could get traded away before the regular session even begins.

The catalyst does not disappear but the move just starts earlier. Episodic pivots could become multi-session moves instead of one giant gap. ORBs could become confirmation trades.

My guess is the technical setups will not vanish. The important or key levels may just stop being defined entirely by the opening bell. I could imagine traders eventually paying more attention to things like the Asia/Europe session highs and lows.

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

Hate this behaviour so much

[Unwritten Rules @HiddenNorms]

If someone hands you their phone to show you one photo, you only look at that photo. Swiping to the next one without asking is way too comfortable.

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@SameOldBench The fourth check is where he finds out the market heard a completely different Fed than he did

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@PolymarketMoney Burry closed Scion and somehow came back with an even more bearish job description

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@EhrmantrautCap_ You can throw money at fabs pretty quickly. Getting usable capacity out of them is another story

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@alifarhat79 Kevin Warsh’s first few months have not exactly been the onboarding experience advertised

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

Everyone is talking about the 25bp decision tonight. I’m not sure that is where the real reaction comes from.

The hike is already around 93% priced. The market is actually pricing roughly four hikes over the next year now. Meanwhile the 10Y traded above 5% yesterday for the first time since 2007.

This makes tonight a weird one. If they hike and the 2Y moves up while the 10Y settles down, the bond market probably bought the inflation message. Tighter policy now. Less inflation and probably less growth later.

If they hike and the 10Y keeps climbing anyway, that’s a much uglier signal. The Fed tightened and the long end still isn’t convinced.

The curve has already been flattening. Feels like bonds are starting to price the economic damage before the Fed has even started hiking.

Also not reading too much into green futures this morning. Oil is down pretty hard. Some of this could just be relief from that.

Will pay more attention to the 2Y and 10Y later on.

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@20mage Word

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@ztlim92 Yeah probably seen a few posts quoting that

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@AutismCapital I was about to ask whether his enrichment needs were being met

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@nocontextmemes She took "finish what you started" literally

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@StockSavvyShay Intel doesn’t need to become the best memory company here. Getting SK Hynix onto the Ohio site would already make the whole project look a lot less stranded

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@chickengenius Feels like everyone already picked green. Now we just wait to find out what the explanation

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@straits_times Singapore loves efficiency. Unfortunately a lot of category defining tech starts life looking horribly inefficient.

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@Million_Sancet Small caps do weird things when positioning gets stretched. Let’s see what is left of the move after the decision

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@MothershipSG The next AI bottleneck: Humans in Singapore

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@greg16676935420 International audience getting excluded in shifts

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@Mr_Derivatives Nice, I’ll put the October drawdown in my calendar

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@leevalueroach I just checked my account. Think I found the bottleneck

[Unrealized Alex @UnrealizedAlex]

@enggirlfriend Every WiFi connection now requires a signed CEO approval form