Vogt WeatherWatcher

A weather service dedicated to the Poconos specializing in school predictions. Supported by an awesome community. Predictions are my own opinion. #InVogtWeTrust

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

TEXT ALERTS ARE BACK! Get a text the moment public Monroe County school predictions are issued; only $14.99/yr. Sign up today!
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Premium now covers all PA districts, the Northeast USA, plus PA colleges/universities. Bundle it with text alerts for savings!

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

School predictions may be required for Friday!

[Northeast Regional Weather @neusregionalwx]

❄️FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...

A low pressure system looks to track across Pennsylvania throughout the day on Thursday, bringing with it widespread snowfall across the area. Rain begins to change to snow in higher elevations Thursday night into Friday as energy transfers off the coast with a developing coastal low.

As the low deepens off the coast, more locations will flip from rain to snow, mainly above 1500 feet. However, scattered, wrap around snow showers generated from the Great Lakes thanks to a strong NW wind will likely persist Friday night and into the day on Saturday, especially across Western New York and the majority of Pennsylvania.

The wild card to this system is the inverted trough, which wherever it may set up, could produce moderate to heavy snowfall rates in higher elevations, and perhaps flip areas at lower elevations from rain to snow with dynamic cooling. Could result in some surprises. We're most confident that this sets up somewhere between Allentown, PA and Hartford, CT, but these are often notoriously hard to predict.

As for the AI-clickbait slop about an I-95 snowstorm, the I-95 corridor from D.C. to NYC look to stay all rain. As you get farther north, some areas along I-95 from Hartford to Boston will likely experience snow showers by the end of this weekend as our storm departs.

We'll continue to monitor any changes in the forecast, and we'll be releasing a map tomorrow morning. Stay tuned! #weather #snow #pawx #njwx #nywx #ctwx #riwx #mawx #vtwx #nhwx #mewx #dewx #mdwx #vawx #wvwx #ohwx

[NWS Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly]

We wanted to share the latest on a system expected to impact the area by later Thursday into Friday. #PAWX #NJWX #DEWX #MDWX

[The Weather Channel @weatherchannel]

some of you weren’t around for my smooth jazz era and it shows.

[Bobby Martrich | EPAWA @epawawx]

Dead giveaway why this probably isn't happening... its ownGEFS. ensembles disagree. Maybe some elevation flakes in far Northern and mountains of Northeast PA. But you won't see this posted anywhere. It's just not click-worthy enough 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Northeast Regional Weather @neusregionalwx]

❄️ COASTAL STORM NEXT WEEK... FIRST SHOT AT SNOW?

Odds are increasing for a coastal system to emerge off the New Jersey and Long Island coastlines a week from today.

With our cold shot trending more potent across model guidance, it's looking quite possible that many areas across our region will see their first snowfall of the season, but given the time of year, this system will likely be limited to higher elevations above 1500 feet.

However, we'd like to note that if ridging out west continues to pump and move into a more favorable position, it could allow for a slower-moving and stronger system that could bring snowfall impacts to lower elevations, but this is something that's very low in confidence, especially given the time of year.

We'll continue to monitor the latest. #pawx #njwx #nywx #snow #storm

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

Snow may or may not occur in mid-November, but we are inching closer to winter.

[Northeast Regional Weather @neusregionalwx]

Models are beginning to pick up on the tropospheric effects of the SSWE…

As we’ve talked about, we’ve projected this window of opportunity for a cold spell to occur around mid-late November, and guidance is beginning to pick up on that now.

It appears confidence on ensemble guidance is shifting toward below average anomalies and colder air down to the surface in the 11-16th time frame, with some members trending toward having a coastal system off the Eastern U.S. around the 13th.

Any potential wintry weather will likely be limited to the interior sections of our area, but we’ll continue to monitor the latest changes. #pawx #njwx #nywx #sswe #winter #elnino

[Northeast Regional Weather @neusregionalwx]

WINTER 2026-2027 OUTLOOK...

Our winter outlook favors a warmer-than-average season across much of the northern and western interior, with an active southern storm track providing increased precipitation opportunities toward the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. Snowfall may be concentrated into relatively short favorable periods rather than distributed evenly throughout the winter.

Let's dive in! (1/

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

@ContentWxGuy Where were you then, Plymouth?

[Northeast Regional Weather @neusregionalwx]

OUR WINTER 2026-2027 OUTLOOK has been published on Patreon, accessible to exclusive members.

Features of our exclusive membership will be ramped up as we head into the winter season, including temperature outlooks, precipitation outlooks, pattern changes, and more. Visit our page for more info!

The outlook will be made public and posted across our socials on Sunday, November 1st. We will also have another announcement, accompanied by our winter weather outlook, about where you could receive additional resources regarding impacts and disruptions to YOUR daily life when the weather turns for the worst, catered to your backyard!

Stay tuned for more. #weather #forecast #outlook #pawx #njwx #nywx
https://t.co/Yku1zdSMwQ

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

@ContentWxGuy So we have the Bering Sea Rule, the East Asia Rule… shall we call this the Kazakistan Rule?

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

@AndyHazelton This could be the first notable AI bust in tropical track forecasting, at least from what I can remember.

[Northeast Regional Weather @neusregionalwx]

🍁🍂 FALL HAS ARRIVED in the Northeast U.S., as the colors of the leafs on the trees continue to change, but what exactly causes this, and what can we expect going forward? Here’s our team with the latest. #weather #fall #foliage #trees #mountain #pawx

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

@25YearsAgoLive @RaulVegas9

[ContentWeatherGuy @ContentWxGuy]

There will be snow soon over the interior. While I'd put the possibility start point about 7 days from now we'll probably see it occur.
Nothing special. Not much moisture around. Climatologically correct perhaps.

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

@ccace_wx Congrats!

[Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher]

@myWeatherNJ @ContentWxGuy . @grok. Who is correct in this thread?

[Mr. Monroe Mouse @MonroeHistoryPA]

A 1939 illustrated map from our collection appears in promotional materials for the Delaware, Lackawanna, and Western Railroad. This section pictures the route of the railroad line through Monroe Co, as well as various activities and points of interest in the surrounding area. 🚂

[Andrew Markowitz @amarkowitzWX]

Reality

[NWS Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly]

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of District of Columbia, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia until 8 PM EDT