Val Katayev

Immigrant. Started at $0. Bootstrapped to $100M+ in profits & exits. Funded $1.7B of credit. Serial entrepreneur in adtech, music, fintech, jewelry, SaaS, RE.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

I've generated over $1 billion in sales using ONE strategy.

Used it in every recession - 2000, 2009, and 2020.

I've never shared it publicly before.

This thread might make you a millionaire.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@loganjrankin Yeah! I’ll hit you up. And coincidentally closing on a new deal as well!

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

It came from an index that largely tracks small diamonds (well under 1 carat).

Small sizes did take a bigger hit because consumers have shifted over to buying lab-grown diamonds versus smaller diamonds.

But when you look at the overall picture of the diamond market, that is a very misleading way to look at it, since there are many areas of diamond categories that have held up and, in some cases, even went up.

Essentially, the diamond market at large is struggling, but it's far from anywhere close to 70% from peak. And showing signs of recovery, especially at the top-end markets

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

I keep seeing “natural diamonds crashed 70%.”

I run companies that work with hundreds of jewelers. I’d love to know where that number comes from, because it doesn’t show up anywhere I look.

The 1 carat natural index fell about 10% last year. It has risen two months in a row since August.

Rough diamonds is where the real damage is. De Beers’ realized price is down 37% this year and they’ve lost money every year since 2023. That’s the miners’ problem and not what a customer pays.

The only diamonds down 70% or more are lab-grown. Those have fallen more than 80% in a decade, and a 1 carat D VVS now wholesales for $87. Somewhere along the way “lab-grown collapsed” became “diamonds collapsed.”

What the stores actually report: natural diamond sales at US independents up 9% in Q1. Average ticket up 25% to over $4,000. Natural still 85% of the diamond dollars.

And the “down from peak” charts all measure from 2022, when people had stimulus checks, no travel, and two years of postponed weddings. Against 2019 the drop mostly disappears.

Natural diamond demand is fine. The headline is about a different product.

At the top end it’s the opposite of a crash.

5 carat prices rose 8% in the first quarter. Christie’s June sale sold every lot. On the branded side, Cartier and Van Cleef grew even more, at 14% last year on jewelry alone.

The customer with real money moved out of handbags and into stones.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

I see how much US spends on jewelry and luxury watches across stores that run on Luxe Software, it’s fascinating to watch how the consumer spends.

There’s a reason US economy is massive yet 68% of our economy is from consumer spending (vs business and government).

Now look at where China sits on that chart.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@noahsfriedman @getoutersignal @ZachZelner Congrats on the big raise Noah, @ZachZelner and team @getoutersignal.

Exciting to be on this ride with you!

P.s. Love the video spot!

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@EricLDaugh Hopefully same process for renewals!

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@austin_rief Some serious names up in here. Is this a Shabbat or a shabbaton?

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@YossiMyerson I did. The lesson is the same. You’re always working for someone, clients, prospects, etc.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

If there’s one video or piece of knowledge that you would want to follow, to set yourself up for success, this is it.

FWIW, I don’t go to the bathroom often either.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@CloudNight8951 And that’s in Osaka “the worst” crime city of Japan

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@BillAckman Can’t imagine going through all of that. Hope you and your family are blessed for everything you’re doing. And hoping for amazing outcomes from AOI to save millions of people in the future.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@businessbarista Hot dammmn. Congrats man.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@robot1228 @SebKuhnert That’s unrelated really, De Beers is a mining company that tried to launch several consumer brands, they most totally failed or didn’t get much traction.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@SebKuhnert @Saul_Sadka I’m referring to the overall diamond jewelery business.

Yes, if you’re purely mining diamonds, that’s a horrible space right now.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

A23

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

@anttsinc I think it’s one of the most amazing cars. Have the latest model for some time. Even sitting in a Range Rover feels like a downgrade now.

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

If you’re not sure why your YouTube CTV ads are not working…

[Val Katayev @ValKatayev]

What’s the biggest thing stopping you from growing?