Jason McDaniel

Political Scientist at SF State University (Race, Voting & Elections, Urban Politics).

[Jason McDaniel @ValisJason]

This is why I am a YIMBY. The only way to reduce racial segregation is to massively increase housing of all types in cities like SF. I don’t care why you oppose a particular housing project. Neighborhood character is not more important than segregation.

[Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle]

@Fairlawgirl96 @ASDem Curing ballots is a lot of work, but that's a small fraction of the ballot. The primary issue is that mail ballots received over the weekend through election day are not processed until after all in-person votes are counted to ensure no one votes twice.

[Jason McDaniel @ValisJason]

Contrast the Wiener and Chan maps with this map of the SF progressive voter index (source: @namisumida) from 2021, a good measure of ideological distribution of voters in SF. Chan did very well in many places with low PVI and Wiener did well in some with high PVI. 2/

[Jason McDaniel @ValisJason]

Here's my precinct map for the CA-11 Congressional race, top three finishers: Chan’s strongest neighborhood shares are Chinatown, Lincoln Park, Sunset/Parkside, Bernal Heights, and Outer Richmond. Unlike most other SF left-progressive candidates. 1/

[Reed Schwartz @reedschwartzsf]

The map for Scott Wiener last night doesn't really track prog vs. mod, it tracks YIMBY vs. NIMBY. The bulk of precincts that went for Chan were conservative, high-homeownership, low-density areas on the West Side.

[Joe Rivano Barros @jrivanob]

JUST IN: Saikat Chakrabarti has conceded the race. It will be Connie Chan vs. Scott Wiener in the contest to replace Nancy Pelosi.

“I want to congratulate Sen. Scott Wiener & Supervisor Connie Chan on their victories & thank everyone who participated in this election."

[Addisu Demissie @ASDem]

Oh I agree with that. The bottom line is Steyer is going to have to crush with what’s left to have a chance (and ideally for him, Bianco also needs to excel). And if we don’t see that with the first late dumps (esp in LA) I think that’s ballgame. If we do…get your coffee ready.

[Jonathan Martin @jmart]

I wrote about the Pelosi succession in SF. Well, the results are in. Or in enough.

Pelosi was able to get her candidate, Chan, into the second round, and beat back the former AOC chief who jumped in to primary her.

But the frontrunner is still the 🦒 - Wiener

https://t.co/dQmGLYC1P9

[Jason McDaniel @ValisJason]

Continuing RCV tabulation vote transfers for D4:
3) Albert Chow third candidate eliminated: 58.4% of his votes transfer to Wong, 20.0% to Gee, 21.3% exhausted.

That gives the final Round 4 RCV tabulation of 72.3% for Chow, 27.68% for Gee

4/

[Jason McDaniel @ValisJason]

In the D4 SF Supervisor race, Wong has 52.3% of first choice votes, which would mean he wins without RCV transfers. Here is how the RCV transfers break down, which show that Wong is in a very commanding position, even if it does go to an RCV tabulation 1/

[Jason McDaniel @ValisJason]

D4 RCV vote transfers:
1) David Lee eliminated, 41.3% of his 595 votes transferred to Alan Wong, 23.9% to Chow, 17.5% to Gee, 6.7% to Greco.
2) Greco eliminated, 51.4% of his 656 votes transferred to Gee, 22.6% to Wong, 9.5% to Chow, 16.5% exhausted

2/

[Addisu Demissie @ASDem]

What I’m going to be looking for:
1. Hilton/Bianco ratio. Will stay pretty stable even as the overall GOP share of the vote will shrink bigly.
2. Porter/Mahan combined. Did the bottom fall out? If it’s 10< then top 2 Ds is in play.
3. The last votes counted. Will be most D.

[Mission Local @MLNow]

It is a stunning stat: 44% of *all* early ballots returned in San Francisco are from those aged 65 and older.

We know older voters come out early, but this is a very strong showing for the senior crowd. And it could bode ill for Prop. D, progressives, and even Prop. A...

[Christian Grose @christiangrose]

SCOTUS overturns map it affirmed just a few years ago in Milligan. Alabama had equal representation for Black voters for two years of its entire state's history (2024-26). https://t.co/jSCV9IPgqz

[Amanda Murdie @AmandaMurdie]

I am devastated by the news that my good friend and coauthor, Dr. @raulpacheco, is no longer with us. It's beyond comprehension.

Raul was a unicorn in our business, a combination of a brilliant mind and a kind heart. 1/5

[Mission Local @MLNow]

San Francisco is out for Election Day:

—Saikat volunteers apparently passed out 20K Post-Its w/his face plastered atop
—City turnout is low, but Chinese-language turnout is reportedly 10 points higher
—Connie Chan hits the Mission, her canvassers hit Chinatown

And more...

[Sam Trachtman @SamTrachtman]

Unsurprisingly, according to data from @cullumclark , California metro areas systematically produced less housing from 2010 to 2023 than would be expected based on economic factors.

[Zac Harmon 🌈 @Zprtr1]

CA early-vote returns (5th update)

🔵 2,253,959 (+722,215)
🔴 1,531,744
⚪️ 972,125

Turnout: 4,757,840
Composition: 47-32 🔵+15

@Political_Data

[ElectionBabe @ElectionBabe]

I come down harder on CA than just about anyone. But I don’t have a ton of patience for pollsters complaining about how long results take. It’s not a simple process in CA, particularly during a consolidated Top 2 primary election with new Congressional maps.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

CALIFORNIA VOTING TURNOUT
(Data from @Political_Data)
As of 2PM California time, Democratic stength has dropped a bit to 47-33.5% D/R (that's today's vote ONLY), which drops their plurality lead from +16 to +15.
(1/2)

[Mission Local @MLNow]

It's ELECTION DAY, and turnout is dismally, dismally low: Just 19% of San Francisco's electorate had turned in a ballot as of Monday evening.

Lots of voters—especially lots of likely Democratic voters—are clinging to their ballots till the last-minute.

https://t.co/O9yVAUipjR