ValueWiz

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

First portfolio update! Have focused last year on increasing quality and predictability. Former largest holdings and biggest winners $ASML $GOOGL for me last year is now a smaller part of the portfolio then in 2025 after the easy money rerating have been made.

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@TimelessCpnd @olensrud I don’t think EQT has any sort of private credit! I’m not 100% sure but maybe 95% at least

[Leandro @Invesquotes]

Some highlights from Jay Adair's first call as returning CEO to Copart $CPRT (with some of my comments attached):

- He is not a transitional CEO, he expects to be at the company for 10+ years

- Believes current industry headwinds are cyclical and that insurance premium increases are already normalizing. My comment: bodes well considering it has created "easy" comps

- Copart will focus on international expansion, not only growing the existing base but moving into other countries. They can now be more aggressive after "figuring out" international insurance industries (like in Germany)

- There will be a focus on M&A: "We will be doing M&A obviously." Imho this is good from a growth standpoint and the fact that the $4.2B in cash likely gets reinvested. He even said that they could lever up to acquire. I do understand that this might make the market a bit nervous (i.e., is the organic growth story over?)

- He believes the narrative re. IAA and how it now competes face 2 face with Copart is flawed: "I think they've espoused some rhetoric that's out there in the marketplace. I haven't seen where their products have dramatically changed."

- He did admit that there's been share loss with one customer but that it's not representative of the remaining customer relationships and that they'll likely win share back over time: "There is a unit loss. There was an account that was lost in some ways, and in some ways, Copart chose not to do business. I think Copart has the ability to win that business back. I suspect over time, you'll see us winning business."

- Believes that the changes that are going to be made won't take years but will take several quarters

- There will be Capex leverage: "The last 10 years was just half a billion a year in buying land and developing those locations. That's definitely going to slow down." This is more important than it looks because if growth accelerates on the face on Capex leverage, FCF will most likely go through the roof (Copart is currently trading at an EV/FCF yield of 6%)

- On SG&A leverage: "I think we can leverage it, but I'm not going to make a statement like that on a call which stops me from making a good LT decision to invest in the company."

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@TheGruvfyllo Läste tidigare i år att morning star bedömde Carfax med en Wide moat, spännande att läsa in sig mer på

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@DimitryNakhla I really love Berkshire as a hedge/defensive asset. If it all goes to shit $BRK will be there to pick up the scraps and strike bargains

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@DrewCohenMoney I really liked the $FND! Never would have known hardwood flooring is interesting to listen to for an hour! Keep up the great work!

I hope to see a $LVMH or $ICE deepdive soon

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@invest091 @Quality_stocksA $RMS remains the true luxury king with no R&D, technology/EV risks

[Tiho Brkan @TihoBrkan]

Investing is a second-level thinking domain.

First-level thinking is where you ask, "Is this a good asset?"

More than 90% of all of the content, research and focus is designated on this level of thinking. There are 100s of blogs and podcasts centred on answering that question with deep dives and 10,000-word research reports.

If the game was all about buying great assets, then research analysts would be the richest people on Wall Street. However, they are merely compensated by a salary.

Alpha, excess return or outsized equity gain is generated by asking the second-level thinking question: "What is everyone else assuming about this asset?"

Additional or follow-up 2nd-level questions might be:
• What is the consensus view?
• What is already priced in?
• What is the level of expectations embedded in the price?
• Who is on the other side of the trade?

Perhaps George Soros summed it up the best when he said, "Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@qualityequities $SPGI

[Ernest Wong @ErnestWongBWM]

$SPGI upcoming Mobility spin-off long-term targets of 7.5%-10% sales growth and 8-11% EBITDA growth

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@returnoncap CSU, L’Oréal, MA, SPGI, BRK, FICO, ICE and Finnish packaging company Huhtamäki $HUH1V

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@DimitryNakhla Nice opportunity here! Really like it, my biggest recent buy with Mastercard and SPGI

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@aktiealbin Stötte på i London!

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@DimitryNakhla Excellent post! Would love to be a Costco shareholder, maybe I get a good entry in the future.
I immediately started to think about $RMS when reading. Leaving a lot on the table for the consumer with prices many x on secondary market, discipline to under-earn and long term view

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@ibinvestorX Kör båda som kärninnehav 🤝 ökat på $BRK på senaste med en bra mängd

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@DrewCohenMoney $bro first 100%! Not always you have a real family owned company at a big drawdown like this

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@NuggetCapital $TOU.TO looks interesting here if you have a longer horizon, maybe a small buy today for me. Almost zero energy exposure after I sold on the rally up

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@NordnetAra @realjohnskogman 12

[Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® @DimitryNakhla]

Warren Buffett measures the progress of his investments by asking ONE question:

𝐇𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐖𝐈𝐃𝐄𝐍𝐄𝐃 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫?

Not maintained. 𝐖𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝.

That is an important distinction.

There’s been a lot of discussion about SaaS names being cheap. $ADBE at 10x. $CRM at 12x. Attractive on the surface.

But before jumping to valuation, ask Buffett’s question first.

Have their moats widened in the past year?

For most, the answer is no. And that is a critical distinction that many investors may be neglecting.

Yes, AI could change this. The implementation of AI has the potential to widen the moats of some SaaS businesses. Yet, that is not clear right now.

But presenting a case that these companies are great investments simply because they trade at low multiples misses the point entirely.

Think about $GOOG. The stock traded down to a 15x multiple — despite being an extraordinarily wide moat business, an AI beneficiary, and a leader with massive distribution across every layer of the tech stack. That’s a very different conversation.

So why does $ADBE at 10x or $CRM at 12x deserve your capital when you can invest in businesses whose moats continue to widen?

That’s exactly why many intelligent investors are choosing to stay away.

It’s not that the value isn’t there on paper. It’s that the burden of proof hasn’t been met. Capital tends to flow toward disruptors — not toward the ones perceived to be disrupted.

Could there be a large turnaround? Of course. But potential doesn’t mean the risk is worth taking or that you should try to catch them on their way down.

I’m all for buying during peak fear. But buying $ASML at $600 or $GOOG at $150 is fundamentally different than buying $ADBE or $CRM today.

One is fear obscuring a widening moat. The other is a low multiple on a moat that may be quietly narrowing (or at the very least, not widening).

Those taking a leap of faith in some of these SaaS names may end up doing very well — and they should be rewarded if they are right! But don’t frame it like this is a no-brainer situation, because it isn’t.

$IGV

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@varunv_malhotra $SPGI one of the widest moat companies for a decent price, Ai risks overblown as at most ~15% lower margin revenue is at risk. $CSU in top 3-4 after the drop

[ValueWiz @Value_wizard]

@realjohnskogman @aktiesparfonden @Richard_Brase Dags för Bråse i podden