Variance 🍌

Bought the top more than once. Learned why. Now sharing what actually moves crypto markets: funding, liquidity, market structure. No calls.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

Quiet here for a while. Resetting this account.

From now on: research notes on how crypto markets actually work. Market structure, funding, testing methodology, and lessons learned the hard way.

No calls. No shilling. No financial advice. Just notes.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@CryptoKaleo Every bottom felt like this. So did a few spots on the way down to it.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@PGATour @KornFerryTour @AustinChampTX Somewhere a club fitter just cleared his entire weekend.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@lordjorx @coinalyzetool Fair caveat. But the first chart is OI share, and the $943B is monthly volume. Fast-turnover RWA perps can do a lot of volume without holding much OI. The real test is how much of "Others" OI they actually are.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

BTC hit $74,710 on Coinbase today. That hour closed at $74,445.

Nice bounce. Not yet a breakout.

A completed hourly close above $74,710, then a retest that holds, would be more convincing than a wick.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@rob4golf @DPWorldTour He does make the rest of us look like we're playing a different game.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@The_DailyDigits Breakevens aren't a clean inflation forecast either. Inflation risk and TIPS liquidity move that spread too. Useful cross-check, not a verdict on the CPI print.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@cryptorover If only it were that simple. The 2023 chart comes with the ending already shown. This one doesn't. A similar setup is worth watching, but the rally on the left isn't evidence for what happens on the right.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw $213.2m leave on Nov 9.

That’s an investor flow, not BlackRock making a bearish call. It can still create selling pressure on bitcoin.

Separate the flow from the story attached to it.

Source: https://t.co/WU6DrlwRXU

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@Sssebi Unfortunately, Cardano never understood this

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@AxelAdlerJr Is the “air pocket” based on traded volume, current order-book depth, or both? They tell different stories.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@joulemath @cryptovizart @qfilabs @SeanSharifQuant Agreed. At those inputs, the power costs alone show why fleet efficiency matters. Debt service adds another layer of pressure.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@cryptorover Small correction: that's ETF redemptions, not BlackRock dumping. Larry just processes the paperwork.

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@Sssebi Hope for the best

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@ByzGeneral That's the right checklist. A break of the low with flat OI and little volume is not the same as a flush. Did funding or basis reset at all into this move, or had the leverage already come off earlier?

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@thedefiedge 122x in notional volume is not the same as 122x in usage. Perp volume can inflate with short-lived turnover. Do you have the open interest behind that 18% share, and is it concentrated?

[Variance 🍌 @Variance_ADA]

@lookonchain New wallets leaving BitGo or Binance are a flow, not yet proof of accumulation. Custody moves and OTC settlement can look identical on-chain. Are these addresses still idle, or have coins already returned to venues?