VinceTheVince

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.

- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.

The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.

So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@NomisesMedici Man kann das seit dem Low auch einfach so zählen anstatt mit den (meines Erachtens) doch seeehr kleinen Bs in deinem Count und auf einmal werden die 200$ ein realistisches Ziel..

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@haukejung Hey Hauke,
Glad to connect from the german alps!

[Leon J. Bergmann @LeonJBergmann]

In der Steuerdebatte wird viel behauptet und wenig nachgerechnet.

Ich hab den Einkommensteuertarif (§32a EStG 2026) in einen interaktiven Simulator gebaut — damit jeder selbst durchrechnen kann was Reformvorschläge für das eigene Gehalt & den Staatshaushalt bedeuten.

Mittelstandsbauch abschaffen? Soli weg? Grundfreibetrag hoch? Einfach einstellen und sehen was passiert.

https://t.co/Iry9rygond /1

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@miladj333e @Doge_mmorpg Aaaaaaaand it's gone

[Scalping using Multi Time Frame (MTF) Momentum @BestForexMethod]

I think I found a way to deliver on my promise

Free access to my #3crbot setfiles for you (providing you agree to help people who need it)

I don't want your money, I just want your help to stop people suffering especially innocent children before I die

Very close now

WIP

[Scalping using Multi Time Frame (MTF) Momentum @BestForexMethod]

#3crbot will run on my vps, it will copy trades to your account

Good people will make it work

[Scalping using Multi Time Frame (MTF) Momentum @BestForexMethod]

Happy 2025 everyone

Another reminder to have a the two PDFs in the first post, the job Eric / EEfranz (RIP) did looks pretty amazing

I spent a few hrs making notes ON pdf1, hitting pdf2 after a walk

PRICELESS SIMPLE SYSTEM
https://t.co/73svlIH4jR?

[Trend Serra Capital | Medici @NomisesMedici]

@TheLongInvest $ADA...are you ready?🚀🚀🚀😎 forget the timeline!🫡

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@BarbaraOneillAU This is just false information

[Nightglow Klarname @nightglow98]

⚠️ Wissenschaftlicher Schock: Das britische Met Office „erfindet“ Temperaturdaten von 103 nicht existierenden Wetterstationen ‼️

103 von 302 Stationen, die Temperaturmittelwerte liefern, existieren nicht. Das sind mehr als ein Drittel der Stationen!

Die Regierungsbehörde weigerte sich bislang mitzuteilen, wie oder woher die angeblichen „Daten“ für diese 103 nicht existierenden Standorte stammen.

Die Frage lautet:
Warum sollte eine wissenschaftliche Organisation Daten veröffentlichen, die man nur als Fiktion bezeichnen kann? Durch Phantasiezahlen, die nach Belieben angepasst werden, kann unmöglich ein wissenschaftlicher Zweck erfüllt werden.

Die Praxis, Temperaturdaten von nicht existierenden Stationen zu „erfinden“, ist auch in den Vereinigten Staaten ein Thema, wo der lokale Wetterdienst NOAA ebenfalls beschuldigt wird, Daten für mehr als 30 % seiner Berichtsstandorte gefälscht zu haben.
„Durch die Hinzufügung der Daten von Geisterstationen sind die monatlichen und jährlichen Berichte der NOAA nicht repräsentativ für die Realität“, sagt der Meteorologe Anthony Watts.

Mein Fazit:
Der Betrug über den angeblichen menschengemachten Klimawandel findet auf allen Ebenen statt. Es geht ausschließlich um Vermögensumverteilung von unten nach oben und Einführung digitaler Tools zur totalitären Steuerung, Kontrolle und Überwachung der Bevölkerung.

▶️https://t.co/e4VLl3a7S3

▶️https://t.co/kY6dFscoiB

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@JoeChartingStar Targets around 18.9k for this?

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@NomisesMedici Könntest du mir erklären wie du die Y in orange zählen würdest?

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@BestForexMethod After finishing my currently ongoing master thesis in ~1-2 weeks, I'm getting back to MT4-to-MT5 translations, having your setup on the top of the list.

[Volcaholic 🌋 @volcaholic1]

Lost for words......
https://t.co/vZV4zFvhKB

[Rowan Cheung @rowancheung]

OpenAI's new custom GPTs allow anyone to build their own AI agents.

By using Actions and Zapier, you can automate your work across 1000+ apps.

Here's an advanced tutorial on how to add actions to your custom GPTs:

[Charlie Holtz @charlieholtz]

David Attenborough is now narrating my life

Here's a GPT-4-vision + @elevenlabs python script so you can star in your own Planet Earth:

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@svpino Nicely written! But I already did my own finetuning project: why should finetuning be better than just giving LLMs access to your docs (e.g. with vector databases) and letting it search? So far, I like those results more than finetuning

[VinceTheVince @VinceTheVinceLP]

@PKycek Outstanding results

[Pavel | Robuxio @PKycek]

How to make a Pattern portfolio that made 1,159% with a drawdown of 27%!

A complete guide

Full description of 3 trading strategies:

- Pin bar breakout, Inside bar breakout, 3-bars pattern
- Complete rules for entries and exits
- Portfolio creation: Weights for every pattern
- Everything you need to know for your own trading

The document will be of great value!

I will only create it if I see genuine interest.

Rules:

1. Retweet and comment: Pattern portfolio

2. If this Tweet has more than 30 retweets, I will send a PDF to everyone who fulfills the 1st rule